We all look at history to get some idea of what to expect when the NFL playoffs begin. While looking to the past should never be your only means of handicapping teams and games, it can serve as an important element. The prime example of this is the New England Patriots, the most successful team in the league over the past 10-15 years. Sure, they don’t always win when it matters, but they do so more often than not, and they are in the position to now take another run at the Super Bowl. Let’s take a closer look at their odds to win Super Bowl LIII and hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.
New England Patriots 2018 NFL Postseason Betting Analysis
- All: 11-5
- Home: 8-0
- Away: 3-5
- ATS: 9-7
- Over/Under: 5-11
- Average Score For: 26.53
- Total Yards: 394.67
- Rush Yards: 127.07
- Passing Yards: 267.60
- Average Score Against: 21.47
- Total Yards: 367.26
- Rush Yards: 113.33
- Passing Yards: 253.93
New England Patriots in the AFC Playoffs
The reality for the Patriots this season is that they have been a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde team. They started out the season with a win over the Houston Texans, a victory that ended up being the tiebreaker for the #2 seed in the conference, but they followed that up with back to back losses. There was talk about the sky falling in New England, but it was easy to forget that they were battling injuries and suspensions in the early going.
Things changed dramatically for the Patriots when they got back to full strength, as they went on to win 8 of their next 9 games. Suddenly, everyone was hyping them up again, but back to back losses after that positive run revealed some potential problems, specifically when this team plays on the road. Landing the #2 spot was crucial for New England, as it means getting started in the Divisional Round with a game in Foxboro.
The Patriots played three teams that are in the AFC playoffs this season, winning all 3 of those games against the Texans, Colts, and Chiefs. They are the second favorite to come out of the AFC at odds of +230, but it’s one of the first times that I can remember people having serious doubts about the ability of this team to get the job done. I think that they are going to come up a little short this time around, as there are some very tough games ahead of them in conference play.
New England Patriots in the Super Bowl
Let’s just imagine for a moment that the Patriots do make it out of the AFC and into the Super Bowl. What are their chances of winning ring number 6, which would put them on a par with the Steelers for the most championships? As it stands at the moment, the bookies have New England in at +600 to win it all, which is a very nice price for those of you who think that Brady and Belichick can once again deliver the goods.
The Patriots only played one NFC team that will be in the playoffs this season, with that one being a trip to Chicago that ended in a 38-31 win for New England. While that now means that they went 4-0 on the season against teams that are in the postseason, will that success carry over? I don’t believe it will, as the Patriots have just not looked very good over the final few weeks. It’s always tough to bet against them, but this might be the year to do so.
New England Patriots NFL Postseason Betting Trends
- New England is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
- New England is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New England’s last 8 games
- New England is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games at home
- New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England’s last 7 games at home