Tom Brady and the playoff-savvy New England Patriots will look to hold it down at home when they host Alex Smith and the streaking Kansas City Chiefs in a contest that looks like it could be the most interesting divisional pairing on this weekend’s entire NFL betting action at MyBookie.ag.
Better yet, is the fact that you’re going to a great chance to maximize your Moneyline wager thanks to this expert betting breakdown on the straight-up (SU) winner of this intriguing affair.
The Chiefs and Pats will square off on Saturday, January 16 at 4:35 PM ET, live from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts.
Okay, with all of that said, let’s get started.
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) January 13, 2016
How To Bet The Kansas City Chiefs Vs New England Patriots NFL Divisional Playoff Odds & TV Info
Kansas City at New England
When: 4:35 PM ET, Saturday, January 16, 2016
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
NFL ATS Odds: New England -5
The Patriots are 5-point home favorites to beat Kansas City which is what they opened as when the odds for this contest were initially released.
Why Bet The New England Patriots Odds at -5
Because the Pats have Tom Brady and Bill Belichick on their sideline – and they’re playing at home!
New England (12-4 SU, 7-7-2 ATS, 9-7 O/U) struggled down the stretch run by dropping their final two regular season games while losing four of their final six games overall, including losses to lowly Philly and abysmal Miami in their finale.
While that certainly doesn’t bode well for the Pats coming into this contest, there’s undoubtedly still plenty of reasons why you should back New England in this matchup.
First and foremost, the Patriots have the most accomplished passer in postseason history running the show for them in future Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady. New England’s longtime franchise signal-caller has won an insane 72.4 percent of his postseason starts while leading the Patriots to a stellar 21-8 record in the playoffs
Brady finished fourth in passer rating (102.2) and third in passing yards (4,770) and will definitely get a boost to the passing attack with wide receiver Julian Edelman set to return for this contest.
The Patriots also have the best coach in the league with Bill Belichick on their sideline. While I’m a big fan of Kansas City’s Andy Reid and I believe he’s about as elite as it gets for an NFL head coach, the fact of the matter is that Belichick stands completely alone when it comes to NFL coaching.
The Pats have compiled a scorching-hot 18-2 SU mark over their last 20 home games and a bankroll-boosting 12-5-3 ATS mark during that stretch.
New England has also gone 8-1 in divisional-round playoff games under Belichick when they get a first-round bye like they’ve had this year – and that simply doesn’t bode well for the Chiefs coming into this contest.
Why Bet The Kansas City Chiefs Odds at +5
Because they’ve got everything they need to pull off the upset!
Forget the fact that Kansas City is the hottest team in all of football, having won an insane 11 straight games coming into this contest.
The fact of the matter is that the Chiefs have every single thing they need to beat the perennially powerful Patriots.
The first thing you need to know about the Chiefs (12-5 SU, 9-8 ATS, 8-8-1 O/U) is that they’re very good on both sides of the ball.
Kansas City finished the regular season ranked ninth in scoring (25.3 ppg) and a stellar third in points allowed (17.9 ppg) even though no one really seems to give K.C. their just due – on either side of the ball.
Veteran signal-caller Alex Smith is now much more than the ‘game manager’ he has been labeled as throughout the vast majority of his career. The former No. 1 overall draft pick completed a healthy 65.3 percent of his passes for 3,486 yards with 16 touchdowns and seven picks while compiling a fine quarterback rating of 95.4.
“They force you into a lot of bad football,” Patriots quarterback Tom Brady said Monday in his weekly appearance on sports radio WEEI. “And they have guys offensively [so they can] control the clock, they run the ball a lot. They have a very good quarterback [Alex Smith] who plays very efficiently. That’s what they did to us, and that’s been a winning formula for a long time.”
Smith will throw early and often to Chiefs’ Pro Bowl tight end Travis Kelce (75 catches, 875 yards, 5 TDs) and should have No. 1 wide receiver Jeremy Maclin back to decent health after the 2014 Pro Bowler suffered a high ankle sprain against Houston this past weekend.
The Chiefs ranked in the top 10 in all four major defensive statistical categories and have three of Pro Bowl defenders on their roster in linebackers Justin Houston and Tamba Hali, along with rookie cornerback Marcus Peters.
The Chiefs were a plus-14 in turnover differential to rank second in the NFL.
“They play very good defense, they rush the quarterback, they get ahead, they play on their terms,” Brady said on WEEI. “They do a lot of things effectively, and schematic-wise, they present problems for an offense.
Expert Pick & Final Score Prediction
The New England Patriots may be playing at home, but there’s a reason why 60 percent of the betting public likes Kansas City to at least cover the spread and it’s because they’re just as good as New England this season.
However, since this is a Moneyline pick, we only need the straight-up winner – and for me, that is still Kansas City. The Chiefs are a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five road games and are my pick to repeat the wildcard success we all saw last weekend when all four road teams won.
Right now, I believe the Chiefs are the better team on both sides of the ball and they’ll cover the spread – by winning outright!
My Final score prediction is Kansas City 27 New England 24