For the first time since 2005, the New Orleans Saints will play an NFL Season without the great Drew Brees under center. Brees retired after last season’s playoff loss to the rival Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Saints will go with either former Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston or the Swiss Army Knife, Taysom Hill, at quarterback. Because Brees no longer plays for the Saints, odds on New Orleans to win the Super Bowl, conference, and their division, or higher than they have been in years. Are the NFL odds underlaid or overlaid? Keep reading for a New Orleans Saints betting analysis.
New Orleans Saints 2021 Season Options to Bet On
2021 NFL Season
- When: Sep. 9, 2021 – Jan. 9, 2022
Saints to Win Super Bowl 56 +2800
The Saints must play Tampa Bay twice. If New Orleans can split with Tampa, they’d likely at least secure a wildcard because neither the Panthers nor the Falcons are as good as the Saints. But New Orleans has had much better teams and they haven’t even gotten back to a Super Bowl since 2010. +2800 are underlay odds.
Saints Super Bowl 56 Odds: Underlay
Saints NFC Championship +1300
Tampa Bay, Green Bay, the Los Angeles Rams, and the San Francisco 49ers should field teams better than the Saints. Those teams may not be much better than New Orleans, but they should be better. By accepting +1300, we’re saying Winston or Hill dominates. That probably won’t happen, and even if it does, the odds don’t justify a bet on the Big Easy team to win the conference.
Saints NFC Championship Odds: Underlay
Saints Worst Regular Season Record +6500
Under head coach Sean Payton, the Saints have never won less than 7 games in any single season. Expect at least +8000 odds before backing New Orleans to post the NFL’s worst regular season record.
Saints Worst Regular Season Record Odds: Underlay
Saints NFC South Division +300
Last season, New Orleans swept the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Saints should be much better than the Falcons and Panthers while Tampa could suffer the dreaded Super Bowl hangover. If Brady and the Bucs aren’t at their best, New Orleans will win the NFC South by default, which means +300 are overlay odds.
Saints NFC South Division Odds: Overlay
Sean Payton Coach of the Year +2500
Payton gets a chance to prove he can succeed without Drew Brees at quarterback. If Winston reverts to his 2019 Tampa Bay Buccaneers form without the interceptions, where he threw 30 TDs and led the NFL in passing yards, everyone will credit Sean for the performance.
Sean Payton Coach of the Year Odds: Overlay
Alvin Kamara NFL MVP +8000
Kamara shouldn’t win MVP, but let’s say Winston and Hill both struggle. If that happens, Payton will turn to Kamara and ditch the 2-back RB system he’s used the past few seasons. Kamara could end up accounting for 90% of the Saints’ offense, which would make him a running back worth backing to win MVP. Kamara is probably closer to a +6500 choice.
Alvin Kamara NFL MVP: Overlay
New Orleans Saints Regular Season Wins
The Saints should benefit from playing against the NFC East and AFC East. New Orleans should also benefit from playing the Panthers and Falcons twice each. Unless Winston and Hill implode, and the defense is much worse than it was last season, Payton should coach the Saints to, at worst, a 10-7 record.
Saints Regular Season Wins Pick: Over 9 +120