Odds Pats Backup QB Pulls a Brady on Tom Brady

Posted by D.Zamzack on Friday,July 15, 2016 1:13, EST in

Everyone knows the legend that is Tom Brady and how he took former Patriots franchise QB Drew Beldsoe’s job. Will this season’s 4-game Deflategate suspension be a karmic payback?

Jimmy Garoppolo is expected to start the first four games of the regular season for the New England Patriots after Terrific Tom declined to pursue legal avenues to overturn his suspension today. Of course the odds are against Garoppolo becoming the next Tom Brady, but he will certainly try his best to replace the three-time Super Bowl MVP when the 2016 campaign kicks off.

The Patriots will be going for their eighth straight AFC East division title and 13th in 14 years when Garoppolo gets under center for what should be his first career start versus the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday Night Football in Week 1. Brady’s suspension for his role in the Deflategate scandal will keep him out against the Cardinals, Miami Dolphins, Houston Texans and Buffalo Bills, with the last three all taking place at home.

 

New England Patriots Odds
Odds to win the AFC Conference:  +350
Odds to win the AFC East Division: -200
Odds to win Super Bowl LI: +600


 

Can Garoppolo Lead the Pats in Tom Brady’s Absence?

Garoppolo’s job is obviously to win as many games as possible, and a winning record would probably put New England on track to make the postseason again. Since 1990, teams that started the season 3-1 went to the playoffs 64 percent of the time, so that’s definitely the goal if not 4-0. Winning at Arizona is the toughest challenge of the first four games, and the odds of the Pats starting 4-0 are listed at +165 (bet $100 to win $165).

The most likely and favored scenario is 3-1 at +125 followed by 2-2 at +150. A 0-4 start is worth the highest amount as the least likely scenario at +900 while 1-4 pays +500. In the previous six seasons, New England has not lost more than four games in any of them, finishing 12-4 in each of the past four and qualifying for the postseason every time. In Brady’s first full season, the Pats went 11-5 and won the Super Bowl.

 

GAROPPOLO’S RECORD – 1ST 4 GAMES
ZERO GAMES WON: +900
1 GAME WON: +500
2 GAMES WON: +150
3 GAMES WON: +125
4 GAMES WON: +165


 

While it’s unfair to hold Garoppolo to those very high and nearly impossible standards, the former second-round pick from Eastern Illinois has a solid chance to top Brady’s numbers from the first four starts of his career. Garoppolo is favored to throw for six touchdowns (+200) and between 751 and 950 passing yards in his first four starts.

 

GAROPPOLO’S TOTAL PASSING TDS IN 1ST 4 GAMES
NO PASSING TDS IN 1ST 4 GAMES: +2000
1 PASSING TD: +1500
2 PASSING TDS: +700
3 PASSING TDS: +600
4 PASSING TDS: +500
5 PASSING TDS: +300
6 PASSING TDS: +200
7 PASSING TDS: +250
8 PASSING TDS: +450
9 PASSING TDS: +600
10 OR MORE PASSING TDS: +550


 

Brady had 820 passing yards and five touchdowns combined over his first four starts, but things got off slowly for him. New England went 1-1 in his first two, as he threw for 254 yards and did not have a touchdown pass. But he really stepped up in the next two with 566 yards and five touchdowns as the Pats went 2-0. A similar situation could happen for Garoppolo because his two most difficult opponents will face him first.

 

GAROPPOLO’S TOTAL PASSING YDS IN 1ST 4 GAMES
350 OR LESS PASSING YDS: +750
351 – 550 PASSING YDS: +300
551 – 750 PASSING YDS: +225
751 – 950 PASSING YDS: +150
951 – 1150 PASSING YDS: +325
1151 – 1350 PASSING YDS: +550
1351 OR MORE PASSING YDS: +700