NFL Playoffs Betting Tips: How to Handicap Wild Card Rounds with MyBookie

The NFL regular season has one round of games remaining before we get into the postseason, with those final few open spots about to be filled in after this weekend’s action.

Once those are done, we can then start to think about the Wild Card games, which are coming our way next weekend.

NFL Playoffs Betting Tips Analysis

We will have 6 games to choose from, but how should we go about betting on those Wild Card matchups?

Here are a few tips to help you make smart decisions.

1. Analyze Team Form and Momentum

Not every team comes into the playoffs on a high, as we often see teams back in or get there with an inferior record by playing in a weak division. With that in mind, you need to look at the recent performance of every team, as well as their strength of schedule over the course of the season. A team with a better record than their opponent does not always mean that they are better overall.

2. Evaluate Quarterback Play

If you look back at past Super Bowl champions, you see, for the most part, that they had an elite QB under center. Yes, there have been a couple of exceptions, but the fact of the matter is that great teams tend to have a great QB. You need to evaluate every quarterback in the Wild Card Round by looking at their recent performances, playoff experience, and how they historically match up against the team they are facing. Experience, for me, is one of the key QB factors. For example, Patrick Mahomes has proven himself in the postseason, while Lamar Jackson, an MVP, has routinely struggled.

3. Assess Coaching Strategies

You can have the best players in the world doing their thing on the field, but it can all mean nothing if the coaches are playing their part. Again, playoff experience has to be considered a factor when handicapping decisions. Also, you have to look at how well head coaches are able to make adjustments when things aren’t going well, while also looking at how they manage the clock and the game plan in general.

4. Examine Injury Reports

Things get a little trickier in the playoffs, as injured players who would normally sit out in the regular season will do all they can to get on the field during the playoffs. Everyone is playing through some level of pain at this stage of the season, but how does that affect their play on the field? Keep track of the injury reports for all teams and do not solely focus on the players that are out. Even someone that is probable could be battling an injury that limits their effectiveness.

5. Analyze Defensive Matchups

We all know the old cliché about defense winning championships, and while it certainly isn’t always the case, a team with a solid defensive foundation is always considered a real threat heading into the postseason. Something to consider here is the ability of a team to stop the run game, to get after the quarterback and force turnovers, and their ability to shut teams down in the red zone. A defense that is good in all of those facets is likely to go on a deep run.

6. Factor in Special Teams

It’s not uncommon to see tight games in the playoffs, given that teams tend to be very evenly matched, especially in the later rounds. Field position is huge in these types of games, which makes special teams an important factor in the outcome. Having a reliable kicker can be a huge bonus in the postseason, as well as having a punter that can continually leave teams with a tough starting field position on a regular basis.

7. Consider Weather Conditions

At this time of the year, the weather can play a huge part in the outcome of a game. Of course, that all goes out the window when teams meet up in a dome stadium, but in outdoor games, the weather can play a huge role, and can potentially give the home team an advantage, especially if teams in cold locations host teams from a warmer climate or a dome stadium.

8. Study Betting Lines and Market Movement

It is always smart to pay attention to the line movements for every game, but you also need to understand why the lines are shifting. Is it because a key player has been ruled out, or is it because of public consensus, or perhaps even sharp bettors making splash bets that will shift the line?

9. Review Historical Trends

There are a lot of things to consider when reviewing historical trends, and we don’t just mean in head-to-head situations. Yes, you want to look at those matchups to see if one team has historically struggled against the teams they are facing in the Wild Card. You also need to consider how teams have performed in past playoffs, as well as how good road teams have been when travelling, especially for longer distances. All of these details will give you a clearer picture of how things might play out in each game.

10. Manage Your Bankroll

There is a feeling that you need to bet on every game once the playoffs roll around, but you need to take the same approach as you do in the regular season, which is to pick and choose your wagers wisely. Set a budget before the playoffs begin and start to narrow down the games that you want to play on Wild Card weekend. If you lose on the Saturday games, stick to your plan and don’t go chasing losses on Sunday with bets that you are not totally confident in.

11. Trust Your Research

Once you’ve done your homework, trust your analysis. While it’s tempting to follow public sentiment or last-minute tips, sticking to your research will yield better results over time.

Example: Applying These Principles

Let’s put these principles into practice with a hypothetical Wild Card matchup:

Team A vs. Team B

• Team A has a strong defense, ranked in the top five overall, but their quarterback is inexperienced in the playoffs.
• Team B’s offense is explosive but faces a tough matchup against Team A’s pass rush.
• The weather forecast calls for cold and windy conditions, favoring Team A’s run-heavy approach.
• The betting line has moved in favor of Team A, indicating sharp money on the home favorite.

Based on this analysis, you might handicap the game by:

• Backing Team A to cover the spread due to their defensive edge and favorable weather conditions.
• Betting the under on the total points, expecting a low-scoring game in challenging weather.

Conclusion

In my opinion, handicapping the Wild Card Round is really not that different from doing so in the regular season.

We often put a little more pressure on ourselves, as we all want to end the season on a high that results in a bigger bankroll than what we started with, but it is important to use research and betting strategy to give ourselves the best chance of winning.

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