One of the biggest questions that we all have heading into a new NFL preseason is whether the defending Super Bowl Champions can successfully defend their crown or not. The New England Patriots delivered the greatest come from behind win in SB history last season, and come into this year with a team that many are suggesting is even better than last season. Tom Brady may now be 40 year’s old, but he is showing absolutely no sign of slowing down. Due to this, the betting odds for Week 1 of the preseason targets Patriots as the team favorite.There will come a time when he will appear to be mortal, but will that happen this season? We are not going to see much of Brady, if we even see him at all, on the field in Week 1 of the preseason, which is probably good news for the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags are a team that have been a perennial struggler in the NFL, and there isn’t much hope of that changing this year. In the regular season, we would be looking at a serious mismatch here, but can the Jags keep it close in the preseason? Let’s take a closer look at the betting stats of these two teams over the past 3 seasons to see if we can paint a picture of how things might go this NFL preseason.
NFL Preseason Odds Jacksonville Jaguars Vs New England PatriotsWhen: Thursday, August 10 at 7:30 PM ESTWhere: Gillette Stadium, FoxboroTV: NFL NetworkRadio: Sirius XM RadioNFL Preseason Odds: New England Patriots -3 (-120)GAMETIME WEATHERPartly Cloudy24°C/76°FHumidity 58%Precipitation % 1%Cloud Cover 45%Wind 7 mph SStadium Type Open
Straight Up StatsThe NFL preseason odds are not up yet for the straight up play, but since we already know that the Patriots are 3.5-point favorites for this one, we know that the Jags will be coming in as the underdog. Over the past 3 seasons, the Jaguars have had the worst combined record straight up at 11-37. That’s a shocking stat, but it gets worse, as they only have 2 road wins versus 22 losses in that stretch, which is the same record they have as the road underdog.It’s probably no real surprise to learn that the New England Patriots are at the opposite end of the totem pole, having posted the best SU record over the past 3 seasons at 45-11. They went an impressive 25-4 at home, which included being 22-4 as the home favorite. This would all suggest that they should have no problem taking care of the Jags at home, even with the benchwarmers playing most of the game.
Point Spread StatsThings have not been as bad for the Jaguars when talking about their performance ATS, but they are still near the bottom of the pack over the last 3 seasons at 21-25-2. As the road team, they went 17-20-2 ATS, and they performed quite well as a road underdog, going 11-11-2. Thus, they were totally shelled in 2 of their last 3 meetings with the Patriots, so still not a lot of reason to get too excited here.Over the past 3 seasons, the New England Patriots have been the second best team in the league in the ATS category, going 35-19-2 during that stretch. At home, they went 19-8-2 ATS, and 16-8-2 when installed as the home favorite. Again, these numbers would suggest that they will be able to beats the Jags at home, covering in the process.
OVER/UNDER StatsThe O/U for this game is currently sitting at 40.5. Jacksonville have seen the majority of their games hit the OVER in the past 3 seasons, with their record at 28-20-0. Hence, they went 14-10-0 O/U on the road during this period, which is the same record as when they were the road dog.Moreover, despite having a high-powered offense, the Patriots are just 30-25-1 O/U over the past 3 seasons. The percentage of OVER games jumps a little at home, with their record at 17-11-1, while they were 15-10-1 as a home favorite.
Expert Pick and Final Score PredictionYes, it is going to be mostly fringe players that we see on the field on Thursday, but I still believe that we are looking at a comfortable win for the Patriots. They should easily cover the 3.5-point spread, and I think this one will sneak over the 40.5.
Jacksonville vs New England Game History
- Total Meetings: 11
- First Meeting: September 22nd, 1996. Foxboro Stadium. Foxborough, Massachusetts.
- Last Meeting: September 27th, 2015. Gillete Stadium. Foxborough, Massachusetts.
- All-Time Series: New England 10-10
- Largest Margin of Victory: New England 51-17
- Longest Win Streak: New England 7 (2003-2015)
- Current Win Streak: New England 7 (2003-2015)