NFL Football Week 16 Upset Picks

Posted by Eric Williams on Friday,December 23, 2016 3:35, EDT in

Will the red-hot Miami Dolphins get the upset win against the Buffalo Bills in their Week 16 AFC East divisional showdown to keep their playoff hopes alive? Can Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers take down Joe Flacco and the Baltimore Ravens when they meet in a huge AFC North divisional matchup that will likely decide the division winner?

Last but not least, can Matthew Stafford and the Detroit Lions pull off the road upset over Dak Prescott and the impressive Dallas Cowboys in another matchup that will have postseason implications? Let’s find out the answers to all three questions right now.

In Depth Analysis On The NFL Football Week 16 Upset Picks

 

 

Miami at Buffalo -4

When: Saturday, December 24 at 1:00 PM ET
Where: New Era Field, Miami, FL

Analysis: The Miami Dolphins (9-5 SU, 8-5-1 ATS) have won two straight and four of their last five games while Buffalo (7-7 SU, 6-7-1 ATS) has won three of their last five and snapped a two-game skid in their last contest. For me, the Dolphins are the better team right now, particularly on the defensive side of the ball where they’ve made life hell on opposing passers virtually all season long.

The Bills will be looking for payback for their 28-25 loss to the Fins on October 23, but I don’t think they’re going to get it seeing as how Buffalo has made a habit of underachieving at the worst time possible under Rex Ryan.

I also like veteran backup quarterback Matt Moore and I believe the Dolphins are going to be far more explosive offensively because he’s starting for the injured Ryan Tannehill. Miami is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine games and Buffalo is 2-5-1 ATS over its last eight. 55 percent of public bettors like the Fins to cover the spread and so do I!

Pick: Miami +4 Points

Baltimore at Pittsburgh -4.5

When: Saturday, December 24 at 1:00 PM ET
Where: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA

Analysis: The Ravens (8-6 SU, 6-8 ATS) and Steelers (9-5 SU, 9-5 ATS) will brawl for it all in their Week 16 AFC North divisional. Pittsburgh is playing at home, but I’m not real convinced they Steelers will cover the spread – or win outright for that matter. Baltimore beat Pittsburgh 21-14 on Nov. 6 and the Steelers have been wildly inconsistent virtually all season long, though they have won five straight coming into this highly-anticipated pairing.

Baltimore has played some solid football in winning three of their last four games, but what makes me really believe the Ravens are going to cover the spread at the very least is the fact that six of the last 10 meetings between these division rivals have been decided by three points or less and I expect this one will be too!

Pick: Baltimore +4 Points

 

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Monday, December 26, 2016

Detroit at Dallas -7

When: Saturday, December 24 at 1:00 PM ET
Where: AT&T Stadium, Dallas, TX

Analysis: The Dallas Cowboys (12-2 SU, 9-4-1 ATS) have won a dozen games and have already punched their ticket to the playoffs, but for me, Matthew Stafford and the Detroit Lions (9-5 SU, 8-6 ATS) are absolutely dangerous and the pick to cover a NFL betting line that I believe is a few points too high.

The Lions have won five of their last six games while compiling an encouraging 7-3 ATS over their last 10 games. Dallas is just 1-4 ATS in their last five games and 2-4 ATS in their last six games against the Lions. A whopping 69 percent of the betting public like Detroit to cover as a touchdown dog and so do I!

Pick: Detroit +7 Points