Most Profitable Teams in Terms of NFL Betting

Posted by Michael Hunt on Friday,June 30, 2017 11:45, EST in

First of all, Saturday is July 1, meaning it’s the time that the NFL returns with teams reporting to training camp in a few weeks and we are just over a month from the annual Hall of Fame Game to kickoff the exhibition season. So. it’s time to start doing your homework! Here were the most profitable teams from a NFL betting perspective from last year.

Most Profitable Teams in Terms of NFL Betting

New England Patriots

In all honesty, I’m frankly tired of writing about the Patriots. It seems that every NFL preview story I do, the Pats are involved. But that’s because we generally preview things to bet “for” not “against.” And the Patriots were money in the bank last year like no other team – and already are NFL betting favorites in every regular-season game for 2017 (although that obviously can change).

Plus their Super Bowl comeback win over Atlanta, the Patriots finished last season with 16 covers in their 19 games. In fact, that ties the best mark in NFL history. As a matter of fact, only the 1989 San Francisco 49ers had an ATS record that matched 16-3 in a non-strike shortened season.

Do You Remember What Happened Last Season?

It’s important to realize that the Patriots opened last year without Tom Brady, going 3-1 ATS without their star. First of all, they were 8.5-point underdogs in their season opener on the road against the Arizona Cardinals, but won it straight up 23-21. Once Brady came back, New England was never an underdog again. In the end, the Pats went 12-2 ATS with him.

Also, New England covered a 15.5-point spread against the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round, the largest spread in a playoff game in 18 years. And ever since Brady became the starting quarterback in 2001, the Patriots have covered 59 percent of their games. That’s obscene.

Last Season’s NFL Betting Trends: 16-3 ATS

Latest NFL Betting Odds

  • NFL Week 1 Odds vs Kansas City Chiefs: Patriots at -7½
  • Odds to Win Super Bowl LII: +400
  • Odds to Win AFC Conference: +220
  • Odds to Win AFC Division: -700
  • 2017-18 Regular Season Wins: O 12½ -115 / U 12½ -115
  • Tom Brady – Total Passing Touchdowns (Must Play Week 1 – Regular Season Only): O 34½ -115 / U 34½ -115

Upcoming NFL Regular Season Schedule

  • Week 1 vs Kansas City Chiefs. Thursday, Sep. 7. 8:30pm ET
  • Week 2 @ New Orleans Saints. Sunday, Sep. 17. 1pm ET
  • Week 3 vs Houston Texans. Sunday, Sep. 24. 1pm ET
  • Week 4 vs Carolina Panthers. Sunday, Oct. 1. 1pm ET
  • Week 5 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Thursday, Oct. 5. 8:25pm ET
  • Week 6 @ New York Jets. Sunday, Oct. 15. 1pm ET
  • Week 7 vs Atlanta Falcons. Sunday, Oct. 22. 8:30pm ET
  • Week 8 vs Los Angeles Chargers. Sunday, Oct. 29. 1pm ET
  • Week 9 – BYE
  • Week 10 @ Denver Broncos. Sunday, Nov. 12. 8:30pm ET
  • Week 11 @ Oakland Raiders. Sunday, Nov. 19. 4:25pm ET
  • Week 12 vs Miami Dolphins. Sunday, Nov. 26. 1pm ET
  • Week 13 @ Buffalo Bills. Sunday, Dec. 3. 1pm ET
  • Week 14 @ Miami Dolphins. Monday, Dec. 11. 8:30pm
  • Week 15 @ Pittsburgh Steelers. Sunday, Dec. 17. 4:25pm ET
  • Week 16 vs Buffalo Bills. Sunday, Dec. 24.  1pm ET
  • Week 17 vs New York Jets. Sunday, Dec. 31.  1pm ET

New Orleans Saints

In the first place, this might surprise people because while the Patriots were excellent last year, the Saints were 7-9 for the third straight season and fourth in the past five. But when Drew Brees & Co. lost, they usually lost close – or at least close enough.

For example, in Week 7, the Saints head in as 7-point road dogs in Kansas City but lost 27-21. Plus, Brees got the Saints within 24-21 with his touchdown pass to Brandon Coleman with 2:33 left, but the ensuing onside kick went out of bounds.

Additionally, Kansas City added a 41-yard field goal, and the Saints could do nothing in the final 28 seconds to change the outcome, consequently suffering an important loss.

What Other Games Were They Able to Cover?

With regards to this, New Orleans also covered its final three games of the season, twice as a dog. In Week 15 at Arizona, it was +3 and won 48-41. In fact, that was the highest-scoring game of last season. Brees threw for 389 yards and four touchdowns. Plus, it was Brees’ 21st career game with at least four TD passes and no interceptions, tying Brady for most in NFL history.

On the other hand, in Week 17, the Saints were +7.5 and lost 38-32 at Atlanta. In reality that was a very lucky cover as the Falcons were way ahead and pulled their starters. In the end the Saints scored 19 fourth-quarter points for a backdoor cover. In the end, it came on a 3-yard TD pass from Brees to Travaris Cadet with 39 seconds left.

Last Season’s NFL Betting Trends: 10-5- 1 ATS

The Saints are underdogs in the NFL betting odds this season.

Latest NFL Betting Odds

  • NFL Week 1 Odds vs Minnesota Vikings: Vikings at -3½
  • Odds to Win Super Bowl LII: +3300
  • Odds to Win NFC Conference: +1600
  • Odds to Win NFC Division: +300
  • 2017-18 Regular Season Wins: O 8½ +105 / U 8½ -135
  • Drew Brees – Total Passing Touchdowns (Must Play Week 1 – Regular Season Only): O 35½ -115 / U 35½ -115

Upcoming NFL Schedule

  • Week 1 @ Minnesota Vikings. Sunday, Sep. 11. 7:10pm ET
  • Week 2 vs New Orleans Saints. Sunday, Sep. 17. 1pm ET
  • Week 3 @ Carolina Panthers. Sunday, Sep. 24. 1pm ET
  • Week 4 @ Miami  Dolphins. Sunday, Oct. 1. 9:30am ET
  • Week 5 – BYE
  • Week 6 vs Detroit Lions. Sunday, Oct. 15. 1pm ET
  • Week 7 @ Green Bay Packers. Sunday, Oct. 22. 1pm ET
  • Week 8 vs Chicago Cubs. Sunday, Oct. 29. 1pm ET
  • Week 9 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Sunday, Nov. 5. 1pm ET
  • Week 10 @ Buffalo Bills. Sunday, Nov. 12. 1pm ET
  • Week 11 vs Washington Redskins. Sunday, Nov. 19. 1pm ET
  • Week 12 @ Los Angeles Rams. Sunday, Nov. 26. 4:05pm ET
  • Week 13 vs Carolina Panthers. Sunday, Dec. 3. 1pm ET
  • Week 14 @ Atlanta Falcons. Thursday, Dec. 7. 8:30pm
  • Week 15 vs New York Jets. Sunday, Dec. 17. 1pm ET
  • Week 16 vs Atlanta Falcons. Sunday, Dec. 24.  1pm ET
  • Week 17 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Sunday, Dec. 31.  1pm ET

Cleveland Browns

To begin with, I’m going to flip the script here. Previously, I mentioned the Patriots covered the spread 84.2 percent of the time. And if you bet AGAINST the Browns every game last year, you would have won 75 percent of the time.

For instance, from Week 4 through Week 15 last year, the Browns covered exactly one game: as a 7.5-point underdog Week 6 at Tennessee, falling 28-26. It was a total backdoor cover too.

How Did That Game End?

The Browns trailed 28-13 when Cody Kessler hit Terrelle Pryor Sr. for a 5-yard TD with 2:07 left, but his pass on the 2-point conversion failed. The Browns recovered the onside kick, and Duke Johnson Jr. scored. The Browns kicked another onside kick, yet Andre Johnson recovered the ball for Tennessee.

Also, Cleveland’s other covers were Week 3 at Miami as a 10-point dog (lost 30-24 in overtime), Week 16 vs. the Chargers (20-17 victory) and Week 17 in Pittsburgh as 3.5-point dogs (lost 27-24 in OT). The Steelers had nothing to play for. Never bet on a team with nothing to play for.

Last Season’s NFL Betting Trends: 4-12 ATS

Latest NFL Betting Odds

  • NFL Week 1 Odds vs Pittsburgh Steelers: Steelers at -9
  • Odds to Win Super Bowl LII: +10000
  • Odds to Win AFC Conference: +5500
  • Odds to Win AFC Division: +2300
  • 2017-18 Regular Season Wins: O 4½ +110 / U 4½ -140

Upcoming NFL Schedule

  • Week 1 vs Pittsburgh Steelers. Sunday, Sep 10. 7. 1pm ET
  • Week 2 @ Baltimore Ravens. Sunday, Sep. 17. 1pm ET
  • Week 3 @ Indianapolis Colts. Sunday, Sep. 24. 1pm ET
  • Week 4 vs Cincinnati Bengals. Sunday, Oct. 1. 1pm ET
  • Week 5 vs New York Jets. Sunday, Oct. 8. 1pm ET
  • Week 6 @ Houston Texans. Sunday, Oct. 15. 1pm ET
  • Week 7 vs Tennesse Titans. Sunday, Oct. 22. 1pm ET
  • Week 8 vs Minnesota Vikings. Sunday, Oct. 29. 9:30am ET
  • Week 9 – BYE
  • Week 10 @ Detroit Lions. Sunday, Nov. 12. 1pm ET
  • Week 11 vs Jacksonville Jaguars. Sunday, Nov. 19. 1pm ET
  • Week 12 @ Cincinnati Bengals. Sunday, Nov. 26. 1pm ET
  • Week 13 @ Los Angeles Chargers. Sunday, Dec. 3. 4:05pm ET
  • Week 14 vs Green Bay Packers. Sunday, Dec. 10. 1pm ET
  • Week 15 vs Baltimore Ravens. Sunday, Dec. 17. 1pm ET
  • Week 16 @ Chicago Bears. Sunday, Dec. 24.  1pm ET
  • Week 17 @ Pittsburgh Steelers. Sunday, Dec. 31.  1pm ET