SB50 Odds, Betting Early Lines or Waiting for the Last Moment?

Posted by Joe Solari on Wednesday,February 3, 2016 6:32, EST in

With barely a week to go until Super Bowl 50, NFL betting action is flooding in favor of the Carolina Panthers, who are favored to win straight up and cover the spread against the Denver Broncos. Then, of course, The Super Bowl is king for proposition bets, and with nearly 400 props offerings; bettors are keen to take advantage of the open lines by wagering on as many of the props as possible. Is it time for us to jump on the Super Bowl 50 odds as well, or should we sit it out at least until Saturday when the lines are super-hot? We analyze that for you in the Big Game betting preview below.

 

 

Last Week Reports & Implications on Super Bowl 50 Betting

Though a number of bettors are still waiting for the last moment to bet on Super Bowl 50, reports from last week indicate that there is already a hive of activity in the NFL lines. For example, Superbook William Hill US reported last Thursday that an astounding 94 percent of money and 85 percent of the spread betting had been wagered on the Carolina in just five days of trading. This was after they’d opened the Super Bowl 50 lines placing the Panthers as 3.5-point favorites, before adjusting them to up to 5.5-point favorites. Offshore numbers also have roughly 79 percent of the money backing Carolina, per Sports Insights. There has been a bit of some pushback from pros or sharps, especially in sportsbooks that had the line up to 6 points, but with the heavy public betting going in Carolina’s favor, we won’t probably witness much change in this week’s betting trends, probably until late Saturday or early Sunday.

Super Bowl 50 Spread Betting

Factually-speaking, NFL betting favorites that close with a line in-between a field goal and a touchdown (-3.5 to -6.5) cover the spread approximately 74 percent of the time (if they win those games). Meanwhile, when the line surpasses a touchdown, the point spread cover rate drops to around 59 percent with a win. These numbers not only work in the regular season, but they also hold steady in the playoffs as well. Keep these numbers in mind when making a choice whether to bet early or late on the Broncos/Panthers in the ATS lines.

Super Bowl 50 Moneyline Bets

While the Panthers are dominant in the ATS lines, reports from William Hill have most bettors (62 percent) picking the Broncos in the moneyline. This was after the Broncos opened the week as +145 or +150 as underdogs, before climbing as high to in-between +180 and +220 in various books. Of course, these numbers will probably be scaled down once the line becomes tighter, so if you are thinking of jumping on the Gary Kubiak bandwagon, you’d be better off placing your tickets early rather than later.

Super Bowl 50 OVER/UNDER Betting

A well-scoring affair is expected by the majority of the public in this game, owing to the way the Panthers dismantled the Seattle and Arizona defenses (ranked #3 and #4, respectively). As such, nearly 75 percent of the total betting money is going on the OVER 44.5 side. This has seen the total number climb as high as 46. At the moment, The OVER/UNDER is dealing anywhere from 45 to 46 at most sportsbooks, and going by the pushback from the sharps, we don’t seen the number going anywhere above 46. So, rather than wait until late, you are better off making your informed betting choice on the OVER/UNDER betting, based on the many Super Bowl 50 total previews we already have, and placing your bet soon. You can wait until Saturday or Sunday, but that probably won’t do you much good because the number won’t be changing greatly.

Super Bowl 50 Prop Betting

The varied nature of Super Bowl 50 prop bets makes it difficult to give a blanket assessment. Our advice therefore comes two-fold here. For items such as alternate point spreads and totals, the golden rule is usually—the earlier you bet, the better the value is likely to be. For other props like player performances, last-minute factors such as injuries or accidents (like the Denver buses involved in a minor accident on Monday) CAN affect the eventual numbers on the board, so it’s best to wait until the last moment. But then again, you can still play around with the early and late Super Bowl decisions, depending on what your magical crucible tells you to do.