Are the Seahawks a Safe NFL Betting Pick Over the Falcons in Week 11?

Are the Seahawks a Safe NFL Betting Pick Over the Falcons in Week 11?

Written by on November 17, 2017

Huge game in the NFC playoff race to conclude Week 11 on Monday night as Atlanta visits Seattle. The Seahawks (6-3) currently hold down the final spot in the NFC wild-card race with the Falcons (5-4) a game behind. Seattle is favored by a field goal on the NFL odds for Week 11. Let’s see if that’s enough for them to be the right NFL betting pick for Monday.

Atlanta at Seattle Week 11 Odds & NFL Betting Pick

When: Monday, 8:30 PM ETWhere: CenturyLink Field, SeattleTV: ESPNRadio: 92.9 The Game (Atlanta) / 710 ESPN (Seattle)Stream Option: WatchESPNOpening NFL Betting Lines: Seahawks -3 (44.5)

Weather Forecast

  • Chance of Rain: 8°C/47°F
  • Humidity: 83%
  • Precipitation: 38%
  • Wind: 4 mph SE
  • Cloud Cover: 50%
  • Type of Stadium: Open

Last Meeting

They played twice last year. Seattle won 26-24 at home during the regular season. Steven Hauschka’s 44-yard field goal with 1:57 remaining was the winner. After that, Matt Ryan was incomplete on his last four throws, including a breakup by Sherman on a long pass to Julio Jones on which the Falcons screamed for a pass interference flag. It probably should have been called. Ryan finished 27 of 42 for 335 yards and three touchdowns.In the divisional round of the NFC playoffs, Atlanta beat visiting Seattle 36-20 at the old Georgia Dome. Ryan threw for 338 yards and three touchdowns. With 2 minutes to go, the Falcons had first-and-goal at the Seattle 2. But Falcons coach Dan Quinn called for Ryan to take a knee, not wanting to pile it on against the team he previously worked for as defensive coordinator.

Why Bet On Atlanta?

The Falcons come off a 27-7 win over Dallas last week. Falcons defensive end Adrian Clayborn recorded a career-high six sacks, forced two fumbles and recovered a fumble. Clayborn’s six sacks are a single-game franchise record (Chuck Smith, five on October 12, 1997) and are tied for the second-most in a game since the individual sack became an official statistic in 1982. Only Hall of Famer Derrick Thomas of the Chiefs (seven on November 11, 1990) had more sacks in a single game.Ryan completed 22 of 29 passes (75.9 percent) for 215 yards with two touchdowns for a 104.8 passer rating in the Falcons’ win. Ryan, who has 40,073 passing yards in 151 career games, reached 40,000 career passing yards in the fewest games in NFL history, surpassing the previous record held by Drew Brees (152).The Falcons will likely be without Pro Bowl running back Devonta Freeman after he left the Dallas game with a concussion. The Falcons will rely on Tevin Coleman and Terron Ward to carry the load if Freeman is sidelined come Monday night.It would mark the fourth career start for Coleman and first since his rookie season in 2015. Coleman’s average of 4.8 yards per carry is tied for sixth best in the league among running backs. Coleman seems to have overcome his fumbling issues after losing three as a rookie. He hasn’t lost a fumble in the past 30 games, including the playoffs. The Seahawks have an intimidating front seven and currently rank ninth in the league against the run, allowing 101 rushing yards per game.

Team Statistics

Offense:
  • Average Score For: 21.89
  • Total Yards: 368.23
  • Pass Yards: 251.56
  • Rush Yards: 116.67
Defense:
  • Average Score Against: 19.89
  • Total Yards: 331.89
  • Pass Yards: 198.22
  • Rush Yards: 113.67

Why Bet On Seattle?

The Falcons have been one of the worst teams at covering, going just 3-6 ATS. The Falcons are also ugly 1-4 ATS in road games this year, which is the second-worst mark in the NFC.The Seahawks have won five of their past six games, including a 22-16 win at Arizona last Thursday night in Week 10. Russell Wilson threw two touchdown passes to tight end Jimmy Graham in the win over the Cardinals, including a two-yard TD in the fourth quarter to extend Seattle’s lead. Wilson is the NFL’s top-ranked passer in the fourth quarter with a 135.2 passer rating with 12 touchdowns and one interception.However, Seattle lost Pro Bowl cornerback Richard Sherman to a season-ending Achilles injury in the game. Sherman has never missed a game in his seven-year career. Only two cornerbacks have a longer active streak of games played. Since the Seahawks drafted Sherman in the fifth round in 2011, their defense has ranked first in opponent QBR (49.4), first in yards allowed per game (300.1) and first in passing yards allowed per game (203.6), according to ESPN Stats & Information research. His 32 career interceptions are six more than any other player since 2011. In five career games against the Falcons, Sherman has 15 tackles, five pass breakups and one batted pass in 241 defensive snaps played.Are the Seahawks a safe bet in the NFL odds for Week 11?Seahawks strong safety Kam Chancellor’s status remains uncertain for Monday. He was carted to the locker room during the fourth quarter against Arizona with a shoulder injury after playing 71 of 80 defensive snaps on the night. But it appears that Pro Bowl safety Earl Thomas will return after missing the past two games with an injury. The Seahawks may need to use Bradley McDougald, Thomas’ replacement at free safety while he was out, at strong safety if Chancellor can’t play.Seattle will also have to wait and see on left tackle Duane Brown, who suffered an ankle injury in his second game since being acquired by the Seahawks from Houston.

Team Statistics

Offense:
  • Average Score For: 23.44
  • Total Yards: 368.45
  • Pass Yards: 267.78
  • Rush Yards: 100.67
Defense:
  • Average Score Against: 18.33
  • Total Yards: 318.89
  • Pass Yards: 217.89
  • Rush Yards: 101

Latest NFL Betting Trends

  • Falcons are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 games
  • Falcons are 2-4 SU in the last 6 games
  • The total went UNDER in 5 of Atlanta’s last 6 games
  • Seahawks are 3-6-1 ATS in the last 10 games
  • Seahawks are 5-1 SU in the last 6 games
  • The total went UNDER in 4 of Seattle’s last 5 games

Expert Prediction & NFL Pick for Week 11

If this spread were 3.5, I might take Atlanta as the NFL betting pick. But Seattle, even with some key players iffy or out, is home and on extra rest. Give the points.