Season Win Predictions That Differ Most From The NFL Odds

Posted by Henry Watkins on Wednesday,June 21, 2017 11:45, EDT in

The start of the new football season is still a few months away, but we already have some NFL odds up that we can talk about ahead of the opening kick-off. One of my favorite parts of the preseason is looking at the upcoming schedule and trying to decide how many wins and losses each team will out together in the coming year. What really makes things fun is when the bookies release the OVER/UNDER numbers for wins for each team, as we ae all then able to compare our numbers with what the bookies deliver.

The sportsbooks do a fantastic job of putting these numbers together, and it is not very often that they are well off the mark. There are always a few teams that either go well beyond, or fall well short of the predicted number, as injuries, poor play, and several other factors decide how a season will go. I am now going to pick out a few teams who I think will go better or worse than the win totals that the bookies have them listed at.

Season Win Predictions That Differ Most From The NFL Odds

 

 

Baltimore Ravens (9 wins)

The Baltimore Ravens have what looks to be a manageable schedule, but let’s not forget that this is a team coming off an 8-win season. They do not, at this time, have a tailback who can take some of the load off QB Joe Flacco, a man who has been prone to mistakes when asked to throw the ball on a consistent basis. The Ravens were also pretty awful on the road last year, and I expect more of the same this season. I think that 8 wins is a fairer evaluation here, and they may even slip as low as 7.

Buffalo Bills (6.5 wins)

Over the past 3 seasons, the Bills have been able to eclipse the 6-win mark, which would suggest that they would be able to do it again this season. This is not a very talented team, though, and while they did have a decent draft, how quickly are those new players going to adjust to life in the NFL? The Bills have a rather brutal schedule to start the season, and could potentially be 1-3 after the opening 4 weeks of the season. That may allow the rot to set in, which sends the rest of the season spiraling down the toilet.

Carolina Panthers (9 wins)

One season after going all the way to the Super Bowl, the Panthers laid an egg with a sub-par 6-10 season. They had a great draft, adding some explosive pieces to the offense, with the addition of Christian McCaffrey being one that should take some of the pressure off of Cam Newton. I think the Panthers are set to bounce back in a big way, particularly if the Falcons come into the season with a Super Bowl hangover of their own. I would not be stunned to see Carolina come up with 10 or 11 wins this season.

LA Rams (5.5 wins)

LA Rams (5.5 wins)

Other than Todd Gurley, can you name 2 or 3 players on this team who can be described as game changers? Of course you can’t, and the Rams did very little to rectify that situation in the offseason. Gurley went through a bit of a sophomore slump last year, mostly because teams stacked the box knowing that he was the only legitimate threat on the Rams offense. If he can have a rebound year, perhaps the Rams can go beyond 6 wins, but he is also going to need some help, and there appears to be very little of that available in this bunch.

Minnesota Vikings (8.5 wins)

The Vikings lost their starting QB before the season even started last year, yet still managed to come away with an 8-8 season. Sam Bradford performed better than most people expected, and this team was able to keep games close, thanks to a defense that was once again one of the best in the league. The key parts of that D will be back for this season, and if the Vikings can steer clear of the big injuries that hurt them so badly last year, 10 win would not be out of the question.