Strong Odds Case Why the Broncos Will Beat The Panthers in SB 50

Posted by Joe Solari on January 30, 2016 in

The last time I poured my heart this deeply on writing, I was talking about why Denver Broncos were the best pick against New England in the AFC Championship Game and why you were better off going against the public by wagering on an UNDER total in that game. As it turned out, I was right on both accounts; Denver won the game and covered the spread as 3-point underdogs and UNDER bettors equally got paid in the total lines. Ahead of the Super Bowl 50 betting matchup, here I am again. And yes, I am still MANNING this place with the same Denver gospel. More than ever before, I am strongly convinced that THIS ONE’S FOR PEYTON!

Panthers vs Broncos SB 50 Game Information Odds and Lines

When: Sunday, February 7, 2015
Kickoff: 6:30 PM ET
Where: Santa Clara, CA
Stadium: Levi’s Stadium
Spread: Panthers -6
Moneyline: Carolina -245 vs Denver +205
Game Total: 45.5
Watch: CBS
Stream: CBS Sports
Listen: Carolina vs Denver

You can dab all you want with Cam Newton and the Panthers in the NFL odds, but that won’t change the fact that Manning, Von Miller and the Broncos will out-dance Carolina in the Super Bowl. My reasons? Glad you asked, ‘coz I have them all laid down for you in the Super Bowl 50 betting preview comprehensively detailed below.

NFL Betting History Says It’s Manning’s Time

Ray Lewis… Jerome Bettis… John Elway… Do any of these names ring any bells in your head? Okay, let me put it simply; what do these three players have in common? Well, in case your NFL betting memory is a bit skewed up, let me jog it up for you.

Lewis was a stud linebacker who played his entire 17-year career for the Ravens, getting selected in 13 Pro Bowls and winning two Super Bowls. The most notable of those Super Bowl wins was the one he won in 2012. Upon announcing that he would retire, the Ravens swore to do everything to win the Super Bowl XLVII for him, and honored their word by playing their hearts out—including that famous goal-line stand they held in the final minutes of the game to claim an emotional 34-31 victory over the San Francisco 49ers.

Bettis, another decorated player who served diligently as a running back for the Rams and the Steelers, saw his prestigious NFL career come to an end in magnificent fashion, with the Steelers winning Super Bowl XL in his native hometown (Detroit, Michigan).

Elway’s name, I bet, is a more prominent name, one that nearly every ardent football enthusiast is familiar with. After having several near Super Bowl wins in his career, the football gods decided to thank Elway’s diligent services in the NFL by allowing him to win back-to-back Super Bowls in his final two seasons in 1998 and ’99 with Denver.

So why am I giving these many examples? Well, the point here is pretty simple… The Sheriff has been a dutiful servant in the NFL, and looking at the manner in which he has survived countless challenges to reach the Super Bowl with his Broncos team; all the indications point towards him finishing his NFL career with a storybook ending, just like his compatriots. This is something that is good enough to bet on, particularly after the Broncos incredulously managed to beat their biggest rivals, the Patriots, last week.

Best Defenses Change Super Bowl Odds… Nearly Every Time!

I bet you’ve read enough about how, in the AFC Championship game, the Broncos turned Brady to the rookie version of Derek Carr, constantly forcing him into miscues with tons of pressure, so I won’t be talking about that here. The many defensive records the Broncos set individually and as a team this year are equally abundant, and they have been already covered in a good number of our Super Bowl 50 previews, so I won’t be repeating them either.

But for the sake of offering cliff notes, here are some key statistics you may want to note down—Denver finished the regular season ranked No. 1 in pass defense, No. 1 in total defense, No. 1 in sacks, No. 3 in run defense and No. 4 in scoring defense.

Now, recent Super Bowl trends indicate that the last 10 Big Games featured five teams that finished the regular season among the top 10 in total defense, and all those five teams went a combined 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in the Super Bowl. The only team that didn’t cover the spread was the 2008 Steelers. Moreover, seven Super Bowls since 1996 have featured a team with a defense that finished the regular season ranked at the top in points allowed, and those teams went 6-1 SU.

Keeping those numbers in mind, and considering the way the Broncos D has been extremely efficient in defending both the run and pass in a consistent way, it goes without saying that Denver has a real shot at winning the Super Bowl. After all, this the same team that received tons of criticism for averaging just 22.2 PPG scoring in the regular season (18th in the NFL) and was prophesized to be destined for doom, yet here they are in the Super Bowl, when strong offensive teams like Green Bay, Pittsburgh, and New England all watching—and hating—from home.

The Broncos Tend To Do Well as Betting Underdogs

Like the 2015 Panthers, the Broncos tend to relish being placed as underdogs, as it kind-of motivates them to prove their critics wrong. To support this, Denver is 5-1 SU and 5-0-1 ATS in its last six games as a betting underdog, underlining the fact that beating New England and covering the spread was no fluke. Finding the strength and motivation to defy the odds against the Panthers should thus be nothing new to Manning and the Broncos.

Final Super Bowl 50 Broncos Betting Remarks

While there are genuine concerns about Denver’s offense, the Broncos team has repeatedly proven this season that is can easily win games, even in occasions that it does not light it up offensively. Plus, Manning showed us against the Patriots that he can still score with him arms and even scramble for a few yards if need be. More importantly, C.J. Anderson and Co. lead a vibrant running game that is likely to shoulder most of the offensive burden in this game. That in mind, Manning will be fed minimum responsibility, and last I checked, you cannot choke up what you don’t eat, so all those predictions about Carolina’s defense throttling Peyton’s production will be disappointed in a big way. Added to Denver’s dependable defense getting the manageable task of frustrating Newton and his weapons, I fully agree with my man Kevin Winters that THIS ONE’S FOR PEYTON.