Sure Over/Under Picks For 2016 NFL Week 1

Posted by Joe Solari on September 10, 2016 in

The Real Football is back and so are our week-by-week NFL betting predictions. Find out what we have in store for you in our surefire NFL Week 1 OVER/UNDER game total picks.

A Closer Look At The Sure Over/Under Picks For 2016 NFL Week 1




Green Bay Packers at Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday, September 11, 1 PM ET

Pick: OVER 48.5

The Green Bay Packers will feature an improved defense just in the same way the Jags will get to Aaron Rodgers and his targets and make life difficult for Green Bay’s offense. Even so, there will be too many proven offensive talents on both sides of the field, with Rodgers having the likes of Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb in the receiving game and a fit Eddie Lacy to hand the ball to. Meanwhile, Blake Bortles will be looking to continue his up-and-trending skills after he broke the franchise records for passing yards and passing in 2015. That shouldn’t be much of a problem, considering his offensive line is better and he boasts of a bevy of talent in the receiving game–Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns and Julius Thomas et al. Add to the fact that both teams will be out to make a statement after finishing the offseason among the most improved units, a high-scoring duel should be in the offing here.

Cleveland Browns at Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday, September 11, 1 PM ET

Pick: OVER 41

Given that Cleveland the total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland’s last 5 games on the road, an OVER bet looks like a really risky value here. But the much we saw from Robert Griffin III in the preseason suggests that the former Washington Redskins quarterback could be having a rebirth of his career in Cleveland. Not many players can stand to be counted as elite targets in Cleveland’s offense, but Griffin is a smart player and so is his offensive coordinator, so  you can at least expect a couple of scores from the visitors here. For Philly, there are tons of questions in the team after Sam Bradford bolted to Minnesota in the preseason, leaving Carson Wentz and Chase Daniel as the potential starters for this game. Neither of these two QBs lit it up in the preseason, but there is sufficient talent in the two signal-callers to take Philly’s score north of three total touchdowns in this game. The fact that the defenses from both teams are just as shaky as the offenses should mean a good number of turnovers and a couple of opportunistic scores (like interception returns and all). And above everything, the total for this game has gone down from the opening 45-point mark to a sumptuous 41-point currently, making the OVER an alluring mark. FYI, in spite of their struggles last season, the total went OVER in 6 of Philadelphia’s last 7 games.

Other Recommended NFL Week 1 OVER Picks: Oakland Raiders at New Orleans Saints (OVER 51), NY Giants at Dallas Cowboys (OVER 46.5)


Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons, September 11, 1 PM ET

Atlanta’s biggest star Julio Jones has been cleared for the opener against Tampa Bay, so Matt Ryan and the Falcons can be assured of having a go-to guy in their offense this Sunday. Meanwhile, Jameis Winston is entering his second year and a bit of some improvement is expected from him and his offense. It is on that basis that many bettors are anticipating an OVER game total here. The challenge, however, is that these two teams have been playing to some rather low-scoring encounter in the recent times, totaling 42, 43 and 44 points in their last three straight meetings dating back to November 2014. This includes the 23-19 and 23-20 victories by Tampa Bay in 2015 when Atlanta had a leaky defense and turned over the ball cheaply. With meaningful adjustments made by Dan Quinn in the offseason, Tampa Bay will probably have even a tougher time getting the points here against the Atlanta defense that allowed less than 22 PPG last season. Similarly, Jones is not in full health, so Atlanta’s offense may not play its best here. Combine that with trends such as the UNDER is 6-4 in the last 10 meetings between these two teams and the total has also gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta’s last 5 games at home; we strongly feel that the UNDER will be a good value on the high 47.5 total.


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Minnesota Vikings at Tennessee Titans, Sunday, September 11, 1 PM ET

The Teddy Bridgewater-led Vikings (18.35 PPG allowed in 2015) were the top UNDER betting performers in 2015 and we feel that the UNDER tend could be a strong play for them again this season, starting this Sunday. With Bridgewater injured and either Shaun Hill or Sam Bradford to start in this game, Minnesota’s offense is likely struggle in terms of rhythm.  And, as they’ve done so often, you can expect the Adrian Peterson-led running game to try and get a couple of scores on the board, and then the Vikings’ stellar defense to take care of everything else.  In Tennessee, the acquisition of DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry, and their heavy usage in the preseason points towards a run-heavy offense, with Marcus Mariota using his arms in a seldom way. With a lot of running plays from both sides and Minnesota’s fierce defense typically figuring strongly into the mix with superior time of possession, the game clock will be milked down real good here, setting up a highly-likely low-scoring duel.

Other Recommended NFL Week 1 UNDER Picks: LA Rams at San Francisco 49ers (UNDER 44.5), Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts (50.5)