Early NFL Odds Report on Potential Week 1 Winners

Only about two months until every team around the NFL will be reporting to training camp. Let’s get this started already! My story assignment here is to give you some sure winners for Week 1 of the season. I want to be clear here: there’s no such thing in sports betting as a sure winner. If so, sportsbooks would be out of business. But here’s my best guess at some winners for the NFL week 1 odds. I am leaning all of the favorites.

Early NFL Odds Report on Potential Week 1 Winners

Once you hit the field, it’s all or nothing. #ChampionshipOffseasonhttps://t.co/xC36T1vfmD

— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) May 25, 2016

Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks (-8)

Seattle is the biggest favorite of the opening week. The Dolphins are coming off a 6-10 season, a year in which they finished last in the AFC East Division. Seattle, meanwhile, was 10-6 last year, second in the NFC West, claiming the final NFL wild-card spot. here is no tougher place to play in the NFL than in Seattle, and the Dolphins will be the longest possible cross-country trip to get there. You might not think that matters, but it can. The Seahawks should again be one of the best teams in the NFL, especially defensively. I struggle to see how Miami can put up many points here, especially after losing top running back Lamar Miller in free agency and basically not replacing him. The last time Seattle lost a home opener was in 2008; thus coach Pete Carroll has never lost a home opener with the team. The last time the Dolphins faced the Seahawks, quarterbacks Ryan Tannehill and Russell Wilson were both rookies and Miami won 24-21 at Sun Life Stadium. The teams have gone in opposite directions since then — Seattle has become one of the NFL’s top teams and the Dolphins continue to hover around .500 or worse.

New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals (-5.5)

This should be an Arizona win as long as Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is still suspended, although he’s fighting that in the U.S. Court of Appeals. It’s not expected that Brady will be successful. There’s been some talk that Brady and the NFL might agree on a reduced suspension, but he’s going to serve at least one game. NFLPA president DeMaurice Smith says Brady made “incredibly generous” settlement offer, but the NFL said no. Thus Jimmy Garoppolo will make the first start of his NFL career, and it’s against an Arizona team that won the NFC West last year and reached the NFC title game. A QB with a quick release, Garoppolo played spectacularly at Eastern Illinois, breaking several of Tony Romo’s school records. But this is the NFL.

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5)

Kansas City is the pick of many experts to win the AFC West this season, after finishing second in 2015 with an 11-5 record but winning a wild-card game in Houston. The Chargers were the division’s worst team in 2015 and likely will be again with a porous defense. The Chiefs swept last season’s series. It was 33-3 in San Diego. Defensive tackle Dontari Poe scored a 1-yard touchdown on fourth down and linebacker Justin Houston intercepted Philip Rivers and returned it 17 yards for a touchdown. Rivers had his worst game of the season, going 19 of 30 for just 178 yards. The game in Kansas City was closer, a 10-3 Chiefs win. After shutting down San Diego most of the game, the Chiefs forced Rivers into a pair of incomplete passes near the goal line in the final seconds. I’m not sure I’d give the 7.5 points in online NFL odds but the Chiefs will win this game.