The last time the Houston Texans and New England Patriots met, NFL fans and betting enthusiasts everywhere were treat to an ‘Instant Classic’ that saw New England prevail 36-33 in an absolute thriller. That Week 3 matchup, which Houston easily covered the spread as 13.5-point road dogs, represented the breakout performance for gifted Texans’ rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson with the former Clemson superstar passing for 301 yards and two touchdown while rushing for an additional 41 yards. Not to be outdone however, Patriots’ future Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady passed for five touchdowns including the game-winner with just 23 seconds remaining in regulation.
Now, with both teams entering the 2018 regular season with some legitimate Super Bowl hopes, should we all expect another Instant Classic that leaves us on the edges of our respective seats? Let’s find out now as I offer up my expert NFL lines pick on this seriously intriguing regular season opener.
Texans at Patriots 2018 NFL Week 1 Lines & Pick
Why Bet on the Houston Texans?
Why should you consider betting on the Houston Texans in this Week 1 matchup? There are a handful of great reasons. First, Houston has a legitimate star in Deshaun Watson. Despite tearing his ACL last season, you’d be hard-pressed to find any football prognosticator that doesn’t expect unbridled success from Watson moving forward. Not only that, but the Texans have a handful of Pro Bowlers on the other side of the ball and the makings of a what looks like a phenomenal defense. Last but not least, Houston also has a very good head coach in Bill Belichick disciple Bill O’Brien.
- Average Score For: 21.12
- Total Yards: 319.92
- Pass Yards: 204.88
- Rush Yards: 115.12
- Average Score Against: 27.25
- Total Yards: 346.63
- Pass Yards: 237.44
- Rush Yards: 109.19
Why Bet on the New England Patriots?
Why should you consider betting on the perennially powerful Patriots? Well damn, there are a bunch of good reasons. First, the Patriots are playing at home where they’re always super difficult to beat. Not only that, but New England still has the greatest pairing of a head coach and quarterback in NFL history. Last but not least, New England is also very good defensively at keeping their opponents out of the end zone and 2018 will almost assuredly be no different.
- Average Score For: 28.95
- Total Yards: 405.32
- Pass Yards: 292.21
- Rush Yards: 113.11
- Average Score Against: 19.53
- Total Yards: 370.26
- Pass Yards: 256.26
- Rush Yards: 114
NFL Betting Trends for Texans at Patriots
- New England is 28-10 ATS in all games over the last 3 seasons
- New England is 27-10 ATS as a favorite over the last 3 seasons
- New England is 2-1 ATS vs Houston over the last 3 seasons
- New England is 3-0 SU vs Houston over the last 3 seasons
- 2 of 3 games in this series have gone over the total over the last 3 seasons
Texans at Patriots NFL Week 1 Analysis and Prediction
While I really like the Houston Texans heading into 2018 and I believe they could challenge for the AFC Championship if everything goes according to plan, I’m going to urge you to back the New England Patriots to get the narrow home win in another thriller. The Patriots have gone a robust 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games against their AFC counterparts and an encouraging 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in the month of September.
I know the Texans have gone 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in September, but I believe the Patriots will be prepared for everything Houston can throw at them. New England wins, but Houston covers the spread.
NFL Week 1 Pick: Patriots 31 Texans 28