Thanks to the majestic, escape artist ways of superstar signal-caller Deshaun Watson, the Houston Texans managed to subdue the Buffalo Bills to advance to the divisional round. Unfortunately, the Texans are going to face a much more difficult task in trying to dispatch reigning league MVP Patrick Mahomes and a Kansas City Chiefs team that hits the playoffs playing their best football of the season. Now, with both Super Bowl hopefuls going all-out to advance to the conference championship, let’s find out which team is offering the best value against their NFL playoff odds.
Texans vs Chiefs 2020 NFL Divisional Round Spread, Game Info & Expert Pick
- When: Sunday January 12, 2020, 3:05 PM ET
- Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
- TV: CBS
- Live Stream: NFL Game Pass
- NFL Divisional Round Odds: Kansas City -9.5 / Total: 49
- Mostly Sunny: 4°C/39°F
- Humidity: 71%
- Precipitation: 20%
- Wind: 9 mph SSE
- Cloud Cover: 25%
- Type of Stadium: Open
Why Bet On Houston?
There are a bunch of good reasons to back the Texans for the ATS cover at the very least in this matchup starting with the fact that they beat Kansas City 31-24 at Arrowhead in Week 6 to cash in as a 3.5-point road dog that day.
Then, there’s also the fact that the Texans rank ninth in rushing, combined with the fact that the Chiefs rank a dismal 26th against the run. Houston has also won two straight road games and three of four away from home dating back to the regular season.
Last, but not least, the Texans have a superstar quarterback in Deshaun Watson that is capable of making game-changing plays at any moment, much like he did last weekend against Buffalo.
- Average Score For: 23.53
- Total Yards: 361.88
- Pass Yards: 235.41
- Rush Yards: 126.47
- Average Score Against: 23.76
- Total Yards: 390.47
- Pass Yards: 266.00
- Rush Yards: 124.47
Why Bet On Kansas City?
There are also a ton of good reasons to back Kansas City to get it done in this one. The Chiefs have won six straight and seven of their last eight games while limiting five of their last six opponents to 17 points or less.
Kansas City has also won four straight at home and the Chiefs are the statistically better team on both sides of the ball in ranking fifth in scoring (28.2 ppg) and seventh in points allowed (19.3 ppg).
Last, but not least, Kansas City is led by reigning league MVP Patrick Mahomes, who, is playing his best football of the season, having tossed 11 TD passes and four picks over his last seven games.
- Average Score For: 28.19
- Total Yards: 379.00
- Pass Yards: 280.94
- Rush Yards: 98.06
- Average Score Against: 19.25
- Total Yards: 349.63
- Pass Yards: 221.44
- Rush Yards: 128.19
NFL Divisional Round Betting Trends for Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs
- Texans are 6-3 ATS in the last 9 games when playing as the underdog
- Texans are 5-2 SU in the last 7 games
- The total went UNDER in 7 of Houston’s last 10 games
- Chiefs are 6-0 ATS in the last 6 games
- Chiefs are 6-0 SU in the last 6 games
- The total went UNDER in 5 of Kansas City’s last 6 games
Texans vs Chiefs Expert Analysis and Prediction
While the road team in this series has gone 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings and Houston has gone 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road games, Kansas City has gone 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games. More importantly, Houston has been wildly inconsistent this season as evidenced by the fact that they recorded a winning record despite allowing more points per game (24.1 ppg) than they average (23.6 ppg).
The Texans have been competitive in every game this season except their Week 11 blowout loss against Baltimore, but I’m expecting Kansas City’s much improved pass defense to turn the Texans into a one-dimensional team that isn’t able to put nearly enough points on the board to keep pace with the explosive Chiefs. I’m going with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to win and narrowly cover the chalk.
Pick: Kansas City 35 Houston 23