Texans vs Packers 2019 NFL Preseason Week 1 Odds, Prediction & Pick

Texans vs Packers 2019 NFL Preseason Week 1 Odds, Prediction & Pick

Written by on August 7, 2019

The Houston Texans will be looking to take the next step in their evolution as a legitimate Super Bowl contender in 2019 when they they hit the road to take on a Green Bay Packers team that is looking to bounce back from its second straight losing season in Year 1 under new head coach Matt LaFleur era. With the two teams set to square off in an inter-conference preseason opener for both playoff hopefuls, let’s find out where the best value lies in this scrimmage opener.

Texans vs Packers 2019 NFL Preseason Week 1 Odds, Prediction & Pick

Weather Forecast

  • Sunny: 23°C/74°F
  • Humidity: 44%
  • Precipitation: 0%
  • Wind: 9 mph WNW
  • Cloud Cover: 14%
  • Type of Stadium: Open

Why Bet on Houston at +2?

The Texans went a fantastic 11-5 last season to win the AFC South by one game over Indianapolis, but the Texans fell well short of their Super Bowl hopes by getting bounced out of the playoffs in the wild card round, by falling to the Colts 21-7, in a lackluster effort at home no less. Gifted dual-threat signal-caller Deshaun Watson is back under center after passing  for 4,165 yards with 26 touchdowns and just nine interceptions last season while in starting all 16 games.

Veteran running back Lamar Miller returns after rushing for a team-high 973 yards and five scores last season while superstar wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins is back after grabbing 115 passes for 1,572 yards and 11 touchdowns. Defensively, star defensive ends, J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney are back to anchor a defense that finished a stellar fourth in points allowed (19.8 ppg).

Team Statistics

Offense:
  • Average Score For: 24.06
  • Total Yards: 360.24
  • Pass Yards: 235.18
  • Rush Yards: 125.06
Defense:
  • Average Score Against: 19.82
  • Total Yards: 347.77
  • Pass Yards: 258.18
  • Rush Yards: 89.59

Why Bet On Green Bay at -2?

The Packers went an uninspiring 4-7-1 in their final season under former head coach Mike McCarthy and 2-2 under interim head coach Joe Philbin to finish at 6-9-1 and in a distant third place in the NFC North while averaging a modest 23.5 points per game (14th) and allowing 25.0 points per contest defensively (22nd). Now, as they get set for Year 1 of the Matt LaFleur era, Green Bay is completely and utterly desperate to back in the playoff mix this coming season.

Superstar signal-caller Aaron Rodgers is back after throwing for 4,442 yards with 25 touchdowns and just two interceptions a year ago. Veteran wide receiver Davante Adams is back after leading Green Bay with 111 catches for 1,388 yards and 13 touchdowns last season, but the Packers need to address a defense that holes on all three levels.

Team Statistics

Offense:
  • Average Score For: 23.50
  • Total Yards: 369.13
  • Pass Yards: 264.88
  • Rush Yards: 104.25
Defense:
  • Average Score Against: 25
  • Total Yards: 369.13
  • Pass Yards: 234.50
  • Rush Yards: 119.69

Texans vs Packers NFL Preseason Week 1 Betting Trends

  • Texans are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 games played on a Thursday
  • Texans are 11-3 SU in the last 14 games
  • The total went UNDER in 4 of the Texans’ last 6 games
  • Packers are 2-4 ATS in the last 6 games
  • Packers are 2-5 SU in the last 7 games
  • The total went UNDER in 7 of the Packers’ last 10 games
 

Expert Analysis and Prediction for Texans vs Packers

For this Week 1 preseason opener, I like Houston to get the outright win to cover the chalk as a slight 2-point road dog. Texans head coach Bill O’Brien is 12-7 in the preseason and that means he generally looks to get the win, even in Houston’s meaningless preseason games. More importantly, even when these teams go to their backups, the Texans have the big edge defensively and that alone makes them a great pick in their preseason opener.

I say, forget the fact that Houston has gone an uninspiring 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 road games while Green Bay has gone 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games. I like Houston’s backup quarterback pair of A.J. McCarron and Joe Webb II more than I like Green Bay’s backup quarterback combination of DeShone Kizer and Tim Boyle. The Packers might be going all-out to get off on the right foot under LaFleur, but again, I’m going with Houston because of their far superior defense.

Pick: Houston +2

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