Three NFL Season Win Total Bets to Put In Your Agenda
Sadly, we are in the dead zone in terms of the NFL calendar. Not much will be happening around the league until players report to training camp in July. But sometimes that also means it’s the best time to find value betting on win totals. Here are five win totals where I would go under for the season in the NFL odds.
A Look at the Three NFL Season Win Total Bets to Put In Your Agenda
Dallas Cowboys (9.5 wins)
This is clearly a case where the books know that fans love to bet on the Cowboys, who are the most popular team in the sport. Dallas won just four games last season but that’s because quarterback Tony Romo missed most of it with a broken collarbone. And really, that’s why I’d bet against Dallas here. Romo has proven rather brittle over the years. Also, the Cowboys did little to fix a leaky defense. Their biggest free-agent signing was Eagles defensive tackle Cedric Thornton, who started 45 games during the past three seasons and profiles as a run-stopper on the interior next to smaller penetrating tackle Tyrone Crawford. Dallas had the league’s fourth-worst run defense by DVOA last season. The Cowboys opted to take Ohio State running back Ezekiel Elliott at No. 4 overall in the draft instead of stellar Florida State defensive back Jalen Ramsey. Then Dallas took Notre Dame linebacker Jaylon Smith with its second-round pick. He’s likely not playing this season off knee surgery. Also keep in mind that two top Dallas pass-rushers, DeMarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory, are suspended for the first four games of 2016,
Cleveland Browns (4.5 wins)
Yes, even though this is the lowest win total of any team, go under. This is easily the least-talented roster in the NFL and I’d all but guarantee that the Browns pick first in the 2017 NFL Draft. In 2017, they’ll have an extra first-round pick (from the Eagles), second-round pick (Titans), third-round pick (Eagles) and as many as three fourth-round picks as compensation for losing free agents. The Browns didn’t even try to re-sign some of their best free agents like center Alex Mack, receiver Travis Benjamin and defensive back Tashaun Gipson. He was a Pro Bowler at 24 last season, and the five-year, $36 million deal he signed with Jacksonville wouldn’t have been onerous for the Browns. Cleveland was among the leaders with the most salary cap to spend heading into fee agency but did very little. Cleveland will start Robert Griffin III at quarterback, and he hasn’t been good for a few years. He’s likely nothing more than a “bridge” to either 2016 rookie Cody Kessler or whomever the Browns decide is their long-term answer at quarterback.
San Diego Chargers (7 wins)
Will this be the Chargers’ final season in San Diego? It could be if the team doesn’t get approval for a new stadium by the end of the year. The Bolts have been approved to join the Rams in Los Angeles but that’s for only one more year. If San Diego doesn’t go, then Oakland gets the right to share that L.A. stadium with the Rams. The Chargers were a mess on defense last season, finishing 28th in DVOA and dead last against the run. Philip Rivers is a good quarterback, but he plays behind a porous offensive line. Last year’s first-round pick, running back Melvin Gordon, was largely a bust. And then came the news that Gordon had major microfracture knee surgery this offseason. The team finished 4-12, as the collective running game faltered to a league-low 3.5 yards per carry. Gordon showed early flashes but did not find the end zone. He had 184 carries for 641 yards and 33 catches for 192.