Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs might have advanced to the AFC Championship by completely overwhelming Houston in their AFC divisional round matchup on Sunday, but the high-scoring AFC West champs look like they’re going to have their hand full on the upcoming AFC title tilt on Sunday. Also looking to punch their Super Bowl ticket are Derrick Henry and a Tennessee Titans team that has been nothing short of phenomenal in winning two playoff games on the road so far this postseason.
Now, with both Super Bowl hopefuls going all out for the win in the 2020 AFC Championship game, let’s find out which team is offering the best value against their NFL odds.
Titans vs Chiefs 2020 AFC Championship Odds, Analysis & Prediction
- When: Sunday, January 19, 2019 at 3:05 PM ET
- Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
- TV: CBS
- Radio: Tennessee / Kansas City
- Live Stream: NFL League Pass
- 2020 AFC Championship Odds: Kansas City -7.5 / Total: 51.5
- Mostly Cloudy: -1°C/31°F
- Humidity: 55%
- Precipitation: 0%
- Wind: 6 mph NNE
- Cloud Cover: 70%
- Type of Stadium: Open
Why Bet On Tennessee?
Tennessee might be on the road for the third straight week, but if we’ve learned anything about the overachieving Titans the last two weeks, it’s that they simply can’t be counted out against anyone.
The Titans have an extremely powerful rushing attack that apparently can’t be stopped. Superstar running back Derrick Henry has rushed for at least 180 yards in three straight games dating back to Week 17 of the regular season and hits the AFC Championship game having torched top-seeded Baltimore for 195 yards on 30 carries while adding a touchdown toss in Tennessee’s 28-12 divisional round upset win over the Ravens on Saturday.
Not only that, but Tennessee’s defense has been absolutely phenomenal in shutting down, both, Tom Brady and Lamar Jackson in two playoff games and Mike Vrabel has out-coached both, Bill Belichick and John Harbaugh to boot. Tennessee has won an impressive five straight road games heading into the AFC Championship while allowing just 12.5 points per game in the postseason.
- Average Score For: 25.00
- Total Yards: 354.23
- Pass Yards: 207.56
- Rush Yards: 146.67
- Average Score Against: 19.78
- Total Yards: 366.11
- Pass Yards: 257.50
- Rush Yards: 108.61
Why Bet On Kansas City?
Patrick Mahomes and company opened up a humongous can of ‘whup ass’ on Houston in their stunning 51-31 AFC divisional round win on Sunday. Kansas City has now won seven straight games dating back to the regular season.
The Chiefs have one of the league’s most dangerous offenses, led by their reigning league MVP. The Chiefs have a ton of talent at the skill positions in Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins and Travis Kelce among others.
After tossing five touchdown passes against the Texans on Sunday, Mahomes has thrown 16 TD passes over his last eight games. The Chiefs also shut down Houston by limiting the Texans to 10 points over the game’s final three quarters after giving up 21 first quarter points.
- Average Score For: 29.53
- Total Yards: 382.24
- Pass Yards: 283.00
- Rush Yards: 99.24
- Average Score Against: 19.94
- Total Yards: 355.06
- Pass Yards: 228.88
- Rush Yards: 126.18
AFC Conference Championship Betting Trends for Titans vs Chiefs
- Titans are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 games
- Titans are 7-2 SU in the last 9 game
- The total went OVER in 9 of Tennessee’s last 12 games
- Chiefs are 7-0 ATS in the last 7 games
- Chiefs are 7-0 SU in the last 7 games
- The total went UNDER in 5 of Kansas City’s last 7 games
Titans vs Chiefs Expert Analysis and Prediction
Tennessee was actually the last team to beat Kansas City. The Titans took out the Chiefs 35-32 at home in Week 10 to cover the chalk as a 5-point underdog as Derrick Henry rushed for 188 yards and two scores on just 23 carries and Ryan Tannehill added a pair of TD tosses. That victory, combined with their phenomenal play this postseason, leads me to believe the Titans can not only cover the spread in this affair, but do so by winning outright!
The Road team in this AFC rivalry has gone a bankroll-boosting 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings while Tennessee has gone 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road dates against Kansas City. The Titans are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings and perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.
I know the Chiefs are a nearly unblemished 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall and 4-0-1 ATS in their last five home games, but I just can’t see the Chiefs having their way against a Titans defense that suddenly looks impenetrable, nor can I see the Chiefs stopping the runaway train that Derrick Henry is. Yes, the Chiefs are playing at home and yes they can score the ball like crazy, but their horrific start against Houston should be worrisome at the very least. I’m going with Derrick Henry and the Tennessee Titans to cover the spread in the 2020 AFC Championship game!
Pick: Tennessee +7.5