Super Bowl 50 Spread Analysis

Posted by Joe Solari on Friday,February 5, 2016 5:12, EDT in

It’s all about Gold Rush in this weekend’s Super Bowl 50 NFL odds. The Carolina Panthers and the Denver Broncos are fighting it out for the NFL Gold. For the founders of the Lombardi Trophy, it is 50 years since the first Super Bowl clash, making this weekend’s National Championship the Golden Edition! And here at Mybookie.ag, we are all about mining Gold in the updated Super Bowl 50 spread betting NFL lines. You wanna dive into the trenches with us and get your share of the Gold? Follow us and we promise to illuminate the path for you, to the best of our abilities.

Super Bowl 50 Updated Betting Preview and TV Information

When: Sunday, February 7, 2015
Kickoff: 6:30 PM ET
Where: Santa Clara, CA
Stadium: Levi’s Stadium
Spread: Panthers -5,5
Moneyline: Carolina -230 vs Denver +190
Game Total: 45.5
Watch: CBS
Stream: CBS Sports
Listen: Carolina vs Denver

What Does Declining Carolina Spread Mean?

After opening the NFL lines with a -3.5 value in spread betting immediately after pummeling the Cardinals, the Panthers saw their line shoot up as high as -6.5 within 48 hours. The line held steady for the majority of last week, but as we got into this week, sharp bettors began pounding hard on the Broncos line, driving the number down to a value of +5.5 in Denver’s favor. As we speak, the numbers are still within that region of Carolina (-5.5) and Denver (+5). That, in essence, means that there has been more money in favor of Denver over the recent days, precisely approximated at one third of the bettors backing Denver in the ATS lines as of Friday. Should more than two thirds of the spread bettors direct their wagers towards Panthers, you should expect a further drift for Denver’s odds.

There is, however, still one big elephant in the room. Were the Oddsmakers and sportsbooks right from the beginning to favor Carolina highly, or are the sharp bettors (who are seemingly moving the spread line to a fair price) the ones to be trusted? In our opinion, it’s a Catch 20 situation that can be argued and disapproved strongly by good arguments from both sides. Sharp handicappers often make the most of money in big games, but that doesn’t mean the public and recreational bettors that love to pound on favorites are never right.

How to Hack the Moving Super Bowl 50 ATS Lines

Now, if market efficiency exists, the latest reported price should be considered the fairest. Keeping that in mind, if Denver’s point spread drifts more (let’s say +5 or +4.5), Carolina’s odds should have even more value. But then, that movement would in fact mean that the NFL Super Bowl betting market isn’t efficient and subject to being swayed opinion, as that final fair price might have been the sportsbooks’ initial offering. In that case, backing the Broncos was actually the right thing in the first place, making them the hot pick.

Simply put, if you decide to follow the current trends and the talks about Carolina being the hot pick, it means you believe the market is efficient as it is If you, however, bet on Broncos in case of any movements, what you are saying is that the sportsbooks were right all along. So, should you trust the trends or the sportsbooks in the ATS betting?

My Final Verdict

Well, if you ask me, I’d say I like to have a bit of both when handicapping my NFL picks. But more than that, I’d also say you will be hard-pressed to find a better and more consistent team than the red-hot Panthers and how they’ve impressed offensively and defensively in their run to the Super Bowl (while heavily paying bettors on both the SU and ATS lines). Contrastingly, Denver has probably not been as impressive, but the experience they have and the Peyton Manning retirement factor (along with Denver’s defense) almost levels the playing field. It is therefore likely to be a close contest. So, if the lines go below +5, Carolina looks like the hot pick. If they close at +5 or go above +5, then Denver is the way to go. Whatever you decide to choose, be sure to consult our already-written articles on the ATS trends to have a clear frame of mind in making an informed decision.