Utilizing NFL Trends in Your Sports Betting

Posted by Joe Solari on May 2, 2016 in

No football handicapper, however good he/she is, can succeed in NFL betting without tapping into the value of NFL trends. This is largely based on the fact that, over time, the NFL betting lines tend to have repeated trends and, by taking note of such tendencies, we can handicap NFL outcomes in a better way. In addition, by monitoring betting trends, you will easily know which teams the Sharps are pounding and the ones the public is chasing, thus knowing how to create and balance your NFL betting strategies. Below, we will be covering how bettors can take advantage of NFL betting trends to yield consistent winning results in the NFL betting boards.

Utilizing NFL Trends in Your Sports Betting



Contrarian Betting

Contrarian Betting, also known as Betting Against the Public, is a popular NFL betting strategy that simply prescribed that you bet against what the public is pounding on in the betting boards. Usually when the public loads up on one side of the NFL lines, sportsbooks tend to move the line to attract money on the other side in the bid to reduce their risk. This trend of line movement can sometimes be irrational or emotion-based, hence offering bettors a couple of extra points on a bet. And this extra point, be it on a point spread or a game total, can be the difference between winning and losing a bet, sometimes increasing your winning percentage by up to 3% or 4% in the long run.

Quarterback Experience

The transition from college football to pro football is often difficult for the players, based on the fact that schemes in the pro world are more complicated and veteran players often play at an advanced level. This often makes is difficult for rookie signal callers to blossom and make a huge impact in their first or second seasons. It is mostly until the third season that the young quarterbacks begin to make a big impact, making it the best time to bet on them for quality performances.

Team/Player Motivation

Over the years, we’ve seen the motivation play a huge role towards winning or losing games. In the Super Bowl odds, for example, teams that have won it in the previous year tend to be complacent the next year, a big reason why we have very few repeat Super Bowl winners. At the end of the season, teams that have something to fight for often play stronger and better than the ones that have already clinched playoff spots or have nothing important to play for. The other trend that often plays out here is that those teams that have been perennial poor performers over the past seasons (in spite of personnel change or coaching change) tend to play poorly because they have lost hope of changing for the better or challenging for championships. If you want to increase your success in NFL betting, keep an eye out for these trends and ensure that you appropriately consider them when handicapping teams or individual players.

Wear and Tear

Different positions in the NFL come with different shelf lives. Quarterbacks, as was earlier mentioned, tend to start the league slowly, but can become solid performers for anywhere between 10 to 15 years after their first three years in the league. Running backs often diminish in strength and performance when they are past 32 years in age. Most wide receivers start to have it rough when they’ve been in the league for 12-plus years Defensive players in the O and D lines equally struggle to maintain efficiency once they are past 12-15 years. Special team players, like kickers, can go as many as 20 years in the league and still maintain efficiency. Then, of course, there are those players like Adrian Peterson, who are very good at keeping their bodies in good shape and defy all kinds of logics that come with the subject of wear and tear in the NFL. So, in short, these trends about wear and tear tend to stay generally the same for most players, something all bettors must keep in mind. But if a player has proven efficiency even way past the years we consider as prime for them, then treat them rightfully as exceptions rather than generalize their performances like others in the league.


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Rejoinder on NFL Betting Trends and their Value in Sports Betting

Like other sports, the NFL is far from a static entity. Dynasties fall, NFL betting trends change and new winners are born every day. Keeping that in mind, you should remember that trends are important but also be able to adapt and adjust your betting trends to suit the evolving nature of the league.