NFL Week 10 Betting Lines & Expert Pick: Texans vs. Rams

Posted by Jordan Walters on Friday,November 10, 2017 3:31, EST in

A couple of weeks ago, this Sunday’s Houston Texans-Los Angeles Rams showdown looked like it might feature the NFL’s two highest-scoring offenses. The LA Rams are still No. 1 but the Texans aren’t the same without Deshaun Watson and is thus a big NFL Week 10 betting lines underdog in L.A.

Houston Texans (3-5) vs. LA Rams (6-2) NFL Week 10 Betting Lines & Expert Pick

  • When: Sunday, 4:05 PM ET
  • Where: LA Memorial Coliseum
  • TV: CBS
  • Radio: 100.3 FM (Houston) / 710 AM (Los Angeles)
  • Live Stream: DirecTV Now
  • NFL Week 10 Betting Lines: Rams -11 (46)

Weather Forecast

  • Mostly Cloudy: 19°C/67°F
  • Humidity:  64%
  • Precipitation: 1%
  • Cloud Cover: 61%
  • Wind: 6 mph WSW
  • Stadium Type: Open

Titans Host Bengals As Slight NFL Betting Odds Favorite in Week 10

Last Meeting

In 2013, the Houston Texans lost at home to the St. Louis Rams 38-13 when both teams were pretty crappy. Sam Bradford threw three touchdown passes, St. Louis added a score on defense and special teams. Bradford is now with Minnesota – and out for the year. Houston’s starting QB that day was Matt Schaub. He left injured and was replaced by TJ Yates, who was picked off twice. Yates could actually play in this game if starter Tom Savage gets hurt. But there’s little to take from that game, just as the NFL Week 10 betting lines indicate.

Why Bet On Houston?

This week, Watson had knee surgery to repair his torn ACL and in some good news, doctors did not find any additional damage. Watson tore the ACL in his right knee during practice last week, although video showed that he may have initially been injured during a Week 8 loss to the Seattle Seahawks.

Tom Savage replaced Watson at quarterback for a 20-14 loss to the Indianapolis Colts last Sunday. Savage said he was the most frustrated he had ever felt after a game. He threw a fourth-quarter touchdown pass to DeAndre Hopkins, and then nearly led the Texans to a game-winning touchdown on the next drive. After throwing three incomplete passes, Savage was sacked on fourth-and-7 to end the game.

Savage was terrible for three quarters, completing 8-of-26 for 81 yards and a 40.7 rating. In the fourth quarter, he was 11-of-18 for 138 yards and a touchdown. His rating was 103.5. Savage struggled so much for three quarters against an Indianapolis defense that ranked 31st that it’s questionable if he can recompose against the Rams, who are 6-2 and leading the NFC West.

One thing to keep in mind, though, is that Savage barely practiced with the first-team offense last week because Watson was only ruled out last Thursday. This week, it was all Savage. Receivers need to adjust to quarterbacks because they’re different. Savage, a pure pocket passer with a strong arm, puts a lot of velocity on his passes.

The Texans have been getting T.J. Yates first-team practice reps as well. Coach Bill O’Brien downplayed the move, saying the Texans just want to “get him back into the fold of running the offense.” It still suggests Savage is on a short leash.

Team Statistics

Offense

  • Average Score For: 28.62
  • Total Yards: 357.5
  • Rush Yards: 132.75
  • Passing Yards: 224.75

Defense

  • Average Score Against: 26.00
  • Total Yards: 339.12
  • Rush Yards: 96.00
  • Passing Yards: 243.12

Why Bet On Los Angeles?

The Rams came out of their bye week and trashed the New York Giants 51-17. It was L.A.’s third victory of at least 30 points this season. The Rams are the 11th team in the Super Bowl era to post at least three wins with a margin of victory of 30+ points in the team’s first eight games of a season. Of the previous 10 teams in the Super Bowl era to accomplish the feat, seven advanced to the Super Bowl (70 percent).

The Rams are averaging 18.9 points per game more this season than last season, on pace to be the best increase in that category from one season to the next. Only one team in NFL history has ever led the league in scoring the year after finishing last: the 1965 49ers. The Rams are the first team since the 2010 Raiders to surpass their previous season’s point total in their first eight games the following season. The 263 points for Sean McVay are the fifth-most by a head coach in his first eight career games.

Todd Gurley is one of the reasons why the Rams come in as the NFL Week 10 Betting Lines favorite.

Goff already has 13 touchdown passes this season, eight more than he had in one fewer game last season. Goff has 35 more completions than he did in his seven games in 2016, yet he has 941 more yards and eight more touchdown passes, along with three fewer interceptions. This means that in those extra 35 completions he has averaged 26.9 yards per catch and a touchdown on 22.9 percent of throws.

Phillips will take on one of his many former teams on Sunday. While Houston’s defensive coordinator, Phillips helped the Texans win a franchise record 12 games in 2012 and make their second consecutive trip to the playoffs.

Team Statistics

Offense

  • Average Score For: 32.88
  • Total Yards: 382.13
  • Rush Yards: 131.25
  • Passing Yards: 250.88

Defense

  • Average Score Against: 19.38
  • Total Yards: 326.62
  • Rush Yards: 121.62
  • Passing Yards: 205.00

Latest NFL Week 10 Lines Trends & Expert Pick

  • Texans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 10
  • Texans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight-up loss
  • Houston is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games overall
  • Rams are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 home games
  • Rams are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record
  • LA is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record

The Rams will back the NFL Week 10 betting lines here, but Houston will score a garbage-time TD to cover the spread.