Week 10 Preview: Patriots at Broncos NFL Odds & Betting Pick

Posted by Michael Hunt on Friday,November 10, 2017 8:49, EST in

From 2012-15, the best rivalry in the NFL was Patriots-Broncos because it featured Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning, arguably the two best quarterbacks in NFL history. Alas, on Sunday night this week it’s Brady vs. … Brock Osweiler. Bit of a mismatch. Thus the Pats are solid road NFL Week 10 lines favorites. New England is at -7.5 to win in the NFL odds on Sunday night.

Week 10 Preview: Patriots at Broncos NFL Odds & Betting Pick

When: Sunday, 8:30 PM ET
Where: Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver
TV: NBC
Radio: 98.5 The Sports Hub (New England) / KOA NewsRadio 850 AM (Denver)
Stream Option: NFL Live
Opening NFL Odds: Patriots -7.5 (46.5)

Lions Are Big NFL Week 10 Betting Favorites Against Browns

Last Season

New England won in Denver in Week 15 last year, 16-3 – the fewest points that the Pats scored in a game Brady started in 2016. Brady missed his first six passes for just the second time his career — the first was way back on Oct. 12, 2003, against the Giants — but he came back to lead the Patriots to a record eighth consecutive division title. Brady completed just half of his 32 passes for 188 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions for a passer rating of 68.2. That was actually worse that Broncos’ QB Trevor Siemian, who was 25 for 40 for 282 yards with an interception for a rating of 73.1.

Latest NFL Odds Trends for Week 10

  • Patriots are 12-4 ATS in the last 16 games
  • Patriots are 16-2 SU in the last 18 games
  • The total went OVER in 8 of New England’s last 12 games
  • Broncos are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 games
  • Broncos are 1-5 SU in the last 6 games
  • The total went UNDER in 4 of Denver’s last 6 games at home

Why Bet On New England?

The Patriots and Broncos will meet for the seventh straight year in the regular season. The Patriots are 5-1 in those games. This week’s game will be the third straight meeting played in Denver. The Patriots enter this week with a streak of 11 straight road wins after finishing a perfect 8-0 on the road in 2016 and adding three more road wins so far in 2017. The Patriots can match the 12-game road win streak they had from Dec. 24, 2006, through Oct. 5, 2008. The NFL record is 18 in a row by the 49ers.

The Patriots own a 27-18 record overall on Sunday Night Football. Brady owns a 18-10 record in 28 games playing on SNF. Brady has thrown for over 300 yards 13 times in Sunday night games.

Pats coach Bill Belichick has 269 career wins, including the postseason, in his 23-year head coaching career with the Browns and Patriots. With a victory on Sunday night, Belichick would tie Hall of Famer Tom Landry (270) for the third-most total wins by a head coach in NFL history.

New England is about as healthy as possible as it comes out of its bye week. On Thursday, the team added a weapon for Brady in signing tight end Martellus Bennett, who spent last year with the Pats. He was with Green Bay this season but surprisingly released on Wednesday. It should help address one of the Patriots’ troubling shortcomings: red zone offense (34 trips, just 17 touchdowns). Bennett had seven TD catches last year.  When the 2016 season ended, the Patriots seemed content to move on from Bennett, who was an unrestricted free agent. They traded for Dwayne Allen, and he doesn’t have a single catch.

Team Statistics

Offense:

  • Average Score For: 27
  • Total Yards: 411.12
  • Pass Yards: 302.12
  • Rush Yards: 109

Defense:

  • Average Score Against: 22.38
  • Total Yards: 417
  • Pass Yards: 295.50
  • Rush Yards: 121.50

Why Bet On Denver?

It’s desperation time for Denver at 3-5 and on a four-game skid. The Broncos were crushed last week 51-23 in Philadelphia. It was the first time the Broncos had surrendered at least 50 points since the 2010 season, a season the Broncos finished 4-12.

Overall, the Broncos have surrendered 16 touchdown passes — one for every 9.3 completions — three more than they did all of last season. The defense, which has spent much the past six seasons among the league’s best, is still currently ranked No. 2 overall, No. 5 against the run and No. 4 against the pass.

Brock Osweiler couldn’t get the Broncos on track in his first start since rejoining the team in September. He finished 19-of-38 for 208 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions against Philadelphia. The Eagles held the Broncos to 35 yards on the ground, nearly 100 below their season average.

Are the Broncos a safe bet in NFL Week 10?

The Broncos sent Siemian to the bench last week in large part because of his 10 interceptions — six of them in the previous three games. Osweiler will start again here.  Osweiler’s last start for the Broncos against the Patriots resulted in a 30-24 overtime win. He completed 23-of-42 passes for 270 yards, one touchdown and an interception in a come-from-behind victory.

Denver’s narrow window to right the season could close Sunday at the hands of Brady and the NFL’s top offense. “The best time to turn it around is against a team like this that’s not going to beat themselves,” running back C.J. Anderson said. “They’re going to be very disciplined, very detailed and focused on their jobs and we can definitely take something from that.”

In 31 meetings in Denver, including the postseason, the Broncos are 21-10 against their AFC East rival. Brady is 7-9 all time against the Broncos and 3-7 when playing them in Denver.

Team Statistics

Offense:

  • Average Score For: 18.75
  • Total Yards: 327.26
  • Pass Yards: 214.88
  • Rush Yards: 112.38

Defense:

  • Average Score Against: 24.75
  • Total Yards: 280.76
  • Pass Yards: 192.38
  • Rush Yards: 88.38

Series History

  • Total Meetings: 52
  • First Meeting: September 9th, 1960. Nickerson Field. Boston, Massachusetts
  • Last Meeting: December 18th, 2016. Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Denver, Colorado
  • All-Time Series: Denver Broncos 30-22-0
  • Largest Margin of Victory: New England 45-10 (2012)
  • Longest Win Streak: Denver Broncos 11 (1984-1998)
  • Current Win Streak: New England 1 (2016)

Expert Prediction & Week 10 NFL Betting Pick

I’m not here to say Denver will win, but that hook on the 7 is big in the NFL odds. Take the points.