NFL Week 10 Upset Picks

Posted by Alex Murphy on Tuesday,November 8, 2016 2:46, EST in

Winning NFL bets is only sweeter when you picked the underdog and the underdog won! That’s why you can take my Week 10 NFL upset picks to the bank! Let’s get started.

NFL Week 10 Upset Picks

Can Jacksonville beat Houston as a slight home dog against the spread? How will the Chiefs play as a field goal dog against Carolina on the road on Nov. 13? What will happen when Dallas battles Pittsburgh in one of the great AFC versus NFC rivalry games of all time?

Houston at Jacksonville

When: Sunday, Nov. 13 at 1:00 pm
Where: EverBank Field, Jacksonville, FL
TV: CBS
NFL Odds: Jacksonville +1.5

Analysis: Houston travels to Jacksonville as a slight -1.5 favorite over the Jags in Week 10. Although Houston has a better record than Jacksonville has, the Texans’ have a terrible offense.

The offense has been worse on the road. Based on history, football handicappers should be assured that Houston’s offense is going to be terrible on the road against Jacksonville. The Texans have lost all 3 of its road games this season.

In a 0 to 27 loss to New England, QB Brock Osweiler threw a pick. The Texans lost 2 fumbles. In a 13 to 31 loss to Minnesota on Oct. 9, Osweiler threw a pick. The Texans passed for only 155 yards. They rushed for only 59 yards. In a 9 to 27 loss to Denver on Oct. 24, Osweiler didn’t throw a pick but he only passed for 131 yards.

It’s hard to see Houston doing much offensively in this game. They’re a terrible road team. I like Jacksonville to get it done ATS as a dog.

NFL Week 10 Upset Pick: Jacksonville

Kansas City at Carolina

When: Sunday, Nov. 13 at 1:00 pm
Where: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
TV: CBS
NFL Odds: Kansas City +3

Analysis: Just like last season, the KC Chiefs are on a roll. After starting out the season at 2-2, the Chiefs have turned things around. KC has won 4 straight games. Two of the wins were on the road, a 20 to 10 beat down of Oakland on Oct. 16 and a 30 to 14 beat down of Indianapolis on Oct. 30.

Kansas City’s defense has been stellar in the last 4 games. It even held the Saints to only 21 points in a 27 to 21 win over New Orleans. The Saints average over 30 points per game. If KC’s defense continues to play this well, does any team in the NFL have a shot against the Chiefs?

I don’t think so. To me, KC is the absolute, hands down, no holds barred winner of the AFC West. I don’t think that Denver, Oakland or San Diego have a shot. What it means is that KC beats a team like Carolina straight up on Nov. 13 no matter what the point spread says.

NFL Week 10 Upset Pick: Kansas City

Dallas at Pittsburgh

When: Sunday, Nov. 13 at 4:25 pm ET
Where: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA
NFL Odds: Dallas +2.5

Analysis: The Dallas Cowboys are underdogs against Pittsburgh even though they’ve won 7 games in a row. Do I believe that Dallas beats Pittsburgh straight up in this battle? Not really. But I must take the points for a couple of reasons.

First, the Cowboys have the best offensive line in the NFL. The offensive line should have no trouble opening holes for talented rookie RB Ezekiel Elliott. Second, Pittsburgh’s defense is a mess. The Steelers’ D allows 276 passing yards per game on average. It allows close to 100 rushing yards per game on average.

The stats say that this could be a 1-point game, either way. I must take the points, which means that I have to side with the underdog at +2.5.

NFL Week 10 Upset Pick: Dallas