Week 11 NFL Expert Picks: Buffalo At Cincinnati

Posted by Eric Williams on Thursday,November 17, 2016 2:35, EST in

The desperate Cincinnati Bengals and Buffalo Bills will square off in a Week 11 matchup of AFC playoff hopefuls that both need a big win in order to keep their equally fading postseason hopes alive.

Now let’s find out which one of these equally desperate AFC residents is offering the best value in this matchup.

In Depth Analysis On The Week 11 NFL Expert Picks: Buffalo Bills At Cincinnati Bengals

When: Sunday, November 20, 2016 at 1:00 PM ET
When: Paul Brown Stadium
TV: FOX
Live Stream: FOX Sports GO
NFL Odds: Cincinnati Bengals -3 / Over/Under: 45.5

 

 

Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills have lost three consecutive games and come into this Week 11 matchup off a hard-fought, 31-25 loss against Seattle in Week 9. Making matters worse is the fact that the Bills have gone 2-5 in their last seven games following a bye week. For the season, quarterback Tyrod Taylor is completing a respectable 60.4 percent of his passes for 1,769 yards with 10 touchdowns and three interceptions. Wide receivers Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin have combined for 753 receiving yards and four touchdowns while veteran running back LeSean McCoy has rushed for a team-high 683 yards and six scores.

The Buffalo Bills are averaging 26.3 points per game to rank an encouraging ninth in scoring while giving up 22.5 points per game defensively to rank a respectable 13th in points allowed.

Cincinnati Bengals

The Cincinnati Bengals have one win in their last five games and come into this important Week 11 showdown off a heartbreaking 21-20 loss against the Giants on Monday night. Veteran quarterback Andy Dalton has played well in completing 65.9 percent of his passes for 2,553 yards with 10 touchdowns and just four interceptions while hooking up with wideouts A.J. Green and Brandon LaFell for 1,351 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. Running back Jeremy Hill has rushed for a team-high 561 yards and six touchdowns.

Unfortunately, the Bengals are averaging just 20.7 points per game to rank an uninspiring 23rd in scoring while allowing 23.3 points per game defensively to rank an uncharacteristic 18th in points allowed.

 

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Expert Prediction and Pick

With both of these AFC playoff hopefuls being wildly inconsistent this season, I think the best play for this contest is a pick for the Over 45.5 total points. The total has gone Over in four of Buffalo’s last six road games and a perfect 5-0 in the last five meetings between these conference rivals. The Bills and Bengals also combine to average 47 points per game while giving up a combined 45.8 points per contest defensively.

As far as the ATS outcome is concerned, I’m taking Cincinnati to get the field goal win and Push as a 3-point home favorite.

Pick: Cincinnati 27 Buffalo 24