Week 11 NFL Predictions: Houston At Oakland

Posted by Eric Williams on Thursday,November 17, 2016 4:33, EST in

When the playoff-hopeful Houston Texans and Oakland Raiders square off in Mexico on Monday night at Estadio Azteca, NFL fans and betting enthusiasts across the globe will be treated to a classic matchup of offense versus defense.

With Derek Carr looking to lead the offensively explosive Raiders to their fourth straight win and Houston’s stingy defense looking to help the AFC South contenders to their third straight win, let’s find out which one of these teams is offering the most value.

Analyzing The Week 11 NFL Predictions: Texans At Raiders

When: Monday, November 21, 2016 at 8:30 PM ET
Where: Estadio Azteca
TV: ESPN
Live Stream: Watch ESPN
NFL Odds: Oakland Raiders -5.5 / Over/Under: 46

 

 

Houston Texans

The Texans have won two straight games including their hard-fought 24-21 win over division rival Jacksonville last Sunday. For the season quarterback, Brock Osweiler is completing an uninspiring 58.6 percent of his passes for 1,818 yards with 11 touchdowns, but has nearly canceled them out by tossing nine interceptions. Wide receivers DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller have combined for 854 receiving yards and five touchdowns while running back Lamar Miller has rushed for a team-high 720 yards and two touchdowns.

Defensively, Houston is limiting the opposition to 20.9 points per game to rank a respectable 12th in points allowed. Linebacker Benardrick McKinney leads the Texans with 80 tackles while John Simon has recorded a team-high 3.5 sacks. Unfortunately, the Houston Texans are averaging just 17.8 points per game to rank a dismal 29th in scoring.

Oakland Raiders

The Raiders have won three consecutive games and come into this Week 11 matchup off a convincing 30-20 win over the defending Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos two weeks ago.

This season, Carr is completing an impressive 66.1 percent of his passes for 2,505 yards with 17 touchdowns and three interceptions. Wide receivers Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree have combined for a stellar 1,439 receiving yards and eight touchdowns while running back Latavius Murray has rushed for team-high 393 yards and eight touchdowns.

Defensively, Oakland is allowing 24.8 points to rank 21st in points allowed, but also averages a healthy 27.2 points per game to rank fifth in scoring. Linebacker Malcolm Smith leads the Oakland Raiders with 49 tackles while Pro Bowl linebacker Khalil Mack has recorded a team-high seven sacks.

 

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Expert Prediction and Pick

While this Week 11 matchup looks like an intriguing affair just waiting to happen, I think it’s actually closer to a lock selection than anything else.

First and foremost, the Raiders are well-rested after getting a bye last week and are playing on the road where they haven’t lost this season. However, the biggest reason I like the Raiders to man-handle the Texans though is their convincing Week 9 smackdown of a really good Broncos team that has its own postseason plans.

Not only did Derek Carr and Oakland’s high-scoring offense put 30 points on the board against Denver’s stingy defense, but the Raiders’ improving defense also limited their long-time AFC West division rivals to just 20 points. The Texans have struggled mightily to score the ball despite adding Osweiler in free agency in the offseason and have to be disappointed with the mediocre play out of their new starting signal-caller.

In addition to all of that, the Texans are a dismal 1-8 ATS in their last nine Monday Night Football games while the Raiders have gone 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a bye week. Keep it simple and back the streaking Raiders to cover the spread much like they did against the Broncos two weeks ago!

Pick: Oakland 28 Houston 20