Week 11 NFL Over/Under Expert Picks (Nov. 20th – 21st)
Posted by Eric Williams on Saturday,November 19, 2016 10:06, EDT in
Will offense or defense rule the day when the Oakland Raiders and Houston Texans throw down in Mexico City? Will either, the Buffalo Bills or Cincinnati Bengals play competent defense in their battle of AFC playoff hopefuls?
Last but not least, will any defense be played in the nation’s capitol when the Washington redskins host Aaron Rodgers and the struggling Green Bay Packers? Let’s find out about all three affairs while identifying what the best Over/Under total wager is for all three matchups.
Here’s A Closer Look At The Week 11 NFL Over/Under Expert Picks (Nov. 20th – 21st)
Houston Texans at Oakland Raiders
When: Monday, November 21, 2016 at 8:30 PM ET
Where: Estadio Azteca
TV: ESPN
Over/Under: 46
Analysis: If you saw Oakland’s impressive 30-20 win over Denver two weeks ago, then you should know that I am expecting this affair to turn out almost identically. Not only did Derek Carr and Oakland’s high-scoring offense put 30 points on the board against Denver’s stingy defense, but the Raiders’ improving defense also limited their long-time AFC West division rivals to just 20 points.
The Houston Texans have struggled mightily to score the ball despite adding Brock Osweiler in free agency in the offseason, but I believe they’ll be able to reach the 20-point plateau against a Raiders defense that still needs to improve. The Over is 5-1 in Oakland’s last six games and 8-3-1 in their last 12 games against a team with a winning record. Simply put, I say go with the 66 percent of public bettors that like the Over.
Pick: Oakland 28 Houston 20
Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals
When: Sunday, November 20, 2016 at 1:00 PM ET
When: Paul Brown Stadium
TV: FOX
Over/Under: 45.5
Analysis: The Bills and Bengals have both been wildly inconsistent this season, making the best play for this contest a pick for the Over 45.5 total points. Buffalo has played Over their O/U totals in five straight games and seven of their last eight games overall.
The total has also gone Over in four of Buffalo’s last six road games and a perfect 5-0 in the last five meetings between these conference rivals. Cincinnati had played Over the total in three straight until finishing just Under the total last weekend. The Bills and Bengals also combine to average 47 points per game while giving up a combined 45.8 points per contest defensively.
Pick: Cincinnati 27 Buffalo 24
Green Bay at Washington
When: 8:30 PM ET, Sunday, November 20, 2016
Where: FedEx Field, Landover, Maryland
TV: NBC
Total: 49.5
Analysis: Despite their struggles, Green Bay Packers has scored at least 25 points in each of their last four games while Washington has scored 26 points or more in three of their last four games. Having tossed those numbers out there, I’m thinking there won’t be a ton of defense being played in this matchup.
Green Bay is completely desperate and has a future Hall of Fame quarterback in Aaron Rodgers that will put his share of points on the board. Washington averages less than a full point per game fewer than the Packers and has a big edge in talent at the skill positions. The Over is 5-1 in Green Bay’s last six games following an SU loss and 4-1 in their last five games following an ATS loss.
The Over is also a perfect 7-0 in Washington’s L/7 games against a team with a losing record, an identical 7-0 in their last seven home games and 8-1 in their last nine games against their NFC conference rivals. I’ve got to believe that Green Bay is going to wake up at some point before they find themselves on the outside looking in come playoff time. Play the Over in what looks like a fairly high-scoring affair to me.
Pick: Green Bay 28 Washington 27
