Week 12 NFL AFC South Playoff Hopefuls Sharp Betting Picks

Posted by Eric Williams on Thursday,November 24, 2016 6:43, EDT in

A pair of AFC South playoff hopefuls take center as the Houston Texans look to rebound from their Week 11 ‘robbery’ of a loss and the blossoming Tennessee Titans try to bounce back from their hard-fought divisional loss.

However, both teams will have their hands completely full with the Texans hosting Philip Rivers and the dangerous San Diego Chargers while Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee Titans look to get a rare road win against Chicago Bears team that could put up a bigger fight than expected.

Now, let’s find out if the Texans and Titans can bring home the bacon in their respective Week 12 matchups.

Here’s A Closer Look At The Week 12 NFL AFC South Playoff Hopefuls Sharp Betting Picks

 

 

San Diego at Houston

When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, November 27, 2016
Where: NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas
NFL Odds: San Diego -1.5

Analysis: The San Diego Chargers (4-6 SU, 6-4 ATS) have lost two of their last three games and come into this contest off 31-24 loss to Miami last weekend. Veteran quarterback Philip Rivers threw three TD passes in the defeat but cost his team bit by tossing a whopping four interceptions, including a game-deciding pick-six.

The Houston Texans (6-4 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) got completely and utterly robbed in their 27-20 loss to Oakland on Monday night as referees missed three apparent calls that cost the Texans big. Quarterback Brock Osweiler completed 26 of 39 passes for 243 yards with one touchdown and one interception while running back Lamar Miller rushed 24 times for 104 yards and one score.

While the betting public is split on this Week 12 pairing, I’m going to advise you to roll with the Houston Texans to bounce back from their crushing loss to Oakland to get the narrow home win and accompanying ATS cover for two reasons. First, the Texans are playing at home where they’ve gone 4-0-1 TS over their last five games.

Second, I think Houston has a healthy dose of desperation coming into this matchup after playing mostly inconsistent football all season long. I know San Diego has compiled a blistering 10-4 ATS mark in their last 14 games, but the Bolts have also lost 16 of their last 22 regular season games outright. While I’m not real impressed with their mediocre offense, I believe sheer desperation will lead the Texans to the narrow home win.

Pick: Houston 28 San Diego 27

 

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Tennessee at Chicago

When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, November 27, 2016
Where: Soldier Field, Chicago, Illinois
NFL Odds: Tennessee -5.5

Analysis: The Chicago Bears (2-8 SU, 3-7 ATS) have lost two straight and five of their last six games and come into their Week 12 home date off a humbling 22-16 loss against the Giants last weekend while narrowly failing to cover the spread as a 7-point underdog. The Tennessee Titans (5-6 SU, 4-7 ATS) have alternated SU wins and losses over their last six games and come into this contest off a narrow 24-17 loss to AFC South division rival Indianapolis the last time out while failing to cover the spread as 3-point underdog.

With the Chicago Bears looking increasingly inept with each passing week, this Week 12 matchup is as easy as pie to call, which is why a decisive 61 percent of public bettors like the Titans to cover the NFL betting line. The Titans have struggled mightily to cover the spread, but they’re playing solid football right now and have a huge edge at quarterback with Marcus Mariota being light years better than Chicago’s Jay Cutler.

The Bears are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games, 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games versus a team with a losing road record and 1-4 ATS in their last five games against a team with a losing record. Last but not least, the road team in this inter-conference rivalry has gone 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Tennessee wins outright by at least a touchdown to cover the spread!

Pick: Tennessee 28 Chicago 21