NFL Week 5 Odds & Game Preview: Jacksonville at Pittsburgh

NFL Week 5 Odds & Game Preview: Jacksonville at Pittsburgh

Written by on October 5, 2017

Looking for a Survivor Pool pick for NFL Week 5? The Pittsburgh Steelers will be a popular choice as they are the biggest favorites on the NFL betting board with inconsistent Jacksonville in town on Sunday. The Steelers are TD favorite at -8.5.

NFL Week 5 Odds & Game Preview: Jacksonville at Pittsburgh

When: Sunday, 1 PM ET
Where: Heinz Field
TV: CBS
Radio: 1010 XL (Jacksonville) / WDVE-FM 102.5 (Pittsburgh)
Opening NFL Week 5 Lines: Steelers -8.5 (43.5)

Weather Forecast

  • Mostly Cloudy: 26°C/78°F
  • Humidity: 58%
  • Precipitation: 15%
  • Wind: 5 mph SSW
  • Cloud Cover: 78%
  • Type of Stadium: Open

Last Meeting

The teams last played Week 5 of the 2014 season – Blake Bortles’ rookie year – in Jacksonville and the Steelers won 17-9. Brice McCain returned an interception 22 yards for a touchdown. McCain stepped in front of receiver Allen Hurns early in the fourth quarter, picked off Bortles’ wobbly sideline pass and went untouched the other way. Ben Roethlisberger completed 26 of 36 passes for 273 yards and a touchdown. The Jaguars finished with 243 yards and were 3 of 12 on third-down conversions.

Buffalo at Cincinnati NFL Week 5 Betting Lines & Expert Analysis

Why Bet On Jacksonville?

The Jaguars have played much better away from home this year, although they come off a 23-20 OT loss at the Jets last Sunday. Bortles completed 15-of-25 passes for 140 yards and one touchdown. No quarterback has had more passes batted down than Bortles since 2014 with Jets defensive lineman Kony Ealy batting down three by himself.

Leonard Fournette rushed 24 times for 86 yards and caught 4-of-5 targets for 59 yards. He had his first NFL receiving TD and another impressive 28-yard reception — he also had another would-be TD called back on a holding call in the fourth.  Receiver Marqise Lee tweeted an apology for his overtime drop that could have set up a game-winning field goal attempt.

Fournette’s 81 carries and 93 combined touches (rushes and receptions) are third in the NFL. If that average holds over the course of the season he will have 372 touches on offense, a significant workload for any back. He wasn’t on the field in the game’s most critical moments last week: The Jaguars had first-and-goal at the 6-yard line trailing 20-17 with less than two minutes remaining in regulation.

The Jaguars are off to their best start since they also started 2-2 in 2010. Victories over Houston and Baltimore are the most they’ve had in September since the 2008 season. They were 5-22 in games played in September from 2009 to 2016. They were winless in September in 2013 (0-4), 2014 (0-4) and 2016 (0-3), which essentially ended any realistic chance of being competitive in the division.

The Jaguars’ task this week is difficult – a road game against an AFC favorite, against the NFL’s No. 2-ranked defense, against a team with big-time playmakers at quarterback (Ben Roethlisberger), running back (Le’Veon Bell) and wide receiver (Antonio Brown). But if they can get a lead, a Jaguars defense that ranks first in the NFL in sacks and third in takeaways can pressure the Steelers.

Team Statistics

Offense:

  • Average Score For: 27.25
  • Total Yards: 327.75
  • Rush Yards: 148.75
  • Passing Yards: 179

Defense:

  • Average Score Against: 18.50
  • Total Yards: 312.5
  • Rush Yards: 165.50
  • Passing Yards: 147

Why Bet On Pittsburgh?

The Steelers played great last week in a 26-9 win at rival Baltimore. Roethlisberger completed 18-of-30 passes for 216 yards with one touchdown and one interception. Big Ben came out hot, completing all four passes for 49 yards on Pittsburgh’s opening drive and later steered Pittsburgh to a 19-point lead by finding JuJu Smith-Schuster for an 11-yard score late in the first half.

Le’Veon Bell erupted for 144 yards and two touchdowns on 35 carries while adding four catches for 42 yards on six targets. Pittsburgh made a concerted effort to get Bell involved early, giving him a whopping nine touches on their opening drive and 19 total in the first half.

Are the Steelers a safe bet in NFL Week 5?

Cameron Heyward was named the AFC Defensive Player of the Week for his performance. Heyward was disruptive all day, sacking Ravens’ quarterback Joe Flacco twice. Heyward stuffed running back Alex Collins for a one-yard loss, forcing a fumble, and came up with the recovery. The turnover eventually led to a Steelers touchdown, and a 13-0 lead in the second quarter. Heyward added four tackles, including three solo stops, and was a key factor in holding the Ravens to only 82 yards rushing and 235 yards in the air.

In their two losses, the Jaguars have given up a ton of yards on the ground. In Week 2, Derrick Henry’s 92 yards on 14 carries led a 179-yard attack for the Titans. Against the Jets, Bilal Powell ran roughshod for 163 yards and a touchdown to lead New York to 256 yards and eight yards per carry on the ground. Bell is likely looking forward to this matchup.

Roethlisberger has thrown 61 touchdown passes and 16 interceptions at home the past four years and has 26 touchdowns and 23 picks in road games over that same time.

Team Statistics

Offense:

  • Average Score For: 22.50
  • Total Yards: 322
  • Rush Yards: 95
  • Passing Yards: 227

Defense:

  • Average Score Against: 14.75
  • Total Yards: 266.5
  • Rush Yards: 112.50
  • Passing Yards: 154

Series History

  • Total Meetings: 23
  • First Meeting: October 8th, 1995. Jacksonville Municipal Stadium. Jacksonville, Florida
  • Last Meeting: October 5th, 2014. EverBank Field. Jacksonville, Florida
  • All-Time Series: Jacksonville Jaguars 12-11-0
  • Largest Margin of Victory: Pittsburgh 28-3 (1996)
  • Longest Win Streak: Jacksonville 4 (2005-2008)
  • Current Win Streak: Pittsburgh 3 (2008-2014)

NFL Week 5 Betting Trends

 

  • Jaguars are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 games
  • Jaguars are 3-12 SU in the last 15 games
  • The total went OVER in 6 of Jacksonville’s last 8 games
  • Steelers are 5-11 ATS in the last 16 games when playing Jacksonville
  • Steelers are 12-2 SU in the last 14 games
  • The total went UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh’s last 7 games

Expert NFL Week 5 Prediction

Pittsburgh will win, but not by more than a touchdown. Take Jags and the points.