Week 9 NFL Spread, Betting Analysis & Prediction: Denver at Philadelphia

The Denver Broncos will have a new starting quarterback Sunday when they visit the Philadelphia Eagles. It likely won’t matter against the team with the best record in the NFL. Philly is a TD favorite in the NFL spread for this Sunday, favored to beat the Broncos by a touchdown.

Week 9 NFL Spread, Betting Analysis & Prediction: Denver at Philadelphia

When: Sunday, 1 PM ET Where: Lincoln Financial Field TV: CBS Radio: KOA 850 AM (Denver) / SportsRadio 94WIP (Philadelphia) Opening NFL Spread: Eagles -7 (43.5)

Weather Forecast

• Overcast: 19^°C/67^°F
• Humidity: 78%
• Precipitation: 24%
• Wind: 8 mph S
• Cloud Cover: 93%
• Type of Stadium: Open

Last Meeting

In 2013, the Eagles were crushed in Denver 52-20. Peyton Manning threw four TD passes and the Broncos had two special teams touchdowns. Michael Vick was the Philly QB then.

Series History

• Total Meetings: 12
• First Meeting: October 31st, 1971. Veterans Stadium. Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
• Last Meeting: September 29th, 2013. Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Denver, Colorado
• All-Time Series: Philadelphia Eagles 7-5-0
• Largest Margin of Victory: Denver 52-20 (2013)
• Longest Win Streak: Philadelphia 3 (1989-1995)
• Current Win Streak: Denver 1 (2013)

Why Bet On Denver’s NFL Spread?

Denver owns the league’s top overall defense this season, allowing 261 yards per game. The Broncos rank second in the NFL – behind only Philadelphia (70.4) – allowing 72.9 rushing yards per game. Linebacker has 24 sacks in 23 career games against NFC opponents (including Super Bowl 50). Since entering the league in 2011, Miller has 80.5 sacks, the most in the NFL during that span. The Denver Broncos lost their third straight Monday night, 29-19. Trevor Siemian completed just 19-of-36 passes for 198 yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions. It was one of the worst quarterback performances of the season. Siemian’s touchdown was a meaningless hookup with AJ Derby in the game’s final two minutes of garbage time. Since a strong Weeks 1 and 2, Siemian has thrown eight picks to three touchdowns in five games (four losses).  Siemian is 29th in the league in passer rating (76.8), and he’s been sacked 25 times — tied for the second-highest total among the league’s starters.Denver To little surprise, Coach Vance Joseph is benching Siemian for Brock Osweiler. It will be Osweiler’s first start for the Broncos since 2015, when he started seven games while Peyton Manning was injured. Osweiler was pulled in the regular-season finale after the Broncos had four first-half turnovers, and Manning started every game thereafter in the run to the Super Bowl 50 title. Osweiler then left in free agency for Houston. This team has more problems than QB. Demaryius Thomas hasn’t had a touchdown catch in roughly 50 weeks, no running back has more than one rushing touchdown this season and even the Broncos’ elite defense has forced just six turnovers, or 11 fewer than the league leaders (Buffalo and Baltimore).

Team Statistics

Offense:

• Average Score For: 18.14
• Total Yards: 341.72
• Pass Yards: 218.29
• Rush Yards: 123.43

Defense:

• Average Score Against: 21
• Total Yards: 261
• Pass Yards: 188.14
• Rush Yards: 72.86

Why Bet On Philadelphia’s NFL Spread?

The Eagles don’t just have the best record in the NFL this year, they’ve also been one of the league’s best teams at covering the spread. Their 6-2 ATS mark is tops in the NFC and second-best in the NFL. The Eagles have reached the halfway point with the league’s best record (7-1) following last week’s 33-10 win over San Francisco. Quarterback Carson Wentz threw two touchdown passes and cornerback Jalen Mills returned an interception 37 yards for his first career touchdown. Wentz ties for the NFL lead with 19 touchdown passes, the most by an Eagles quarterback through the team’s first eight games of a season. The previous mark of 17 touchdown passes was shared by Hall of Famer Norm Van Brocklin (1960) and Norm Snead (1967).  Mills was named NFC Defensive Player of the Week. The second-year player out of LSU is tied for third in the NFL in interceptions (3) and pass breakups (10) at the halfway point. The Eagles also got better this week by trading for 2016 Pro Bowl running back Jay Ajayi from the Dolphins. He has struggled this year but was on a terrible offense. If Ajayi regains his form, he is likely to emerge as the No. 1 back for the Eagles. GM Howie Roseman, however, said LeGarrette Blount will remain the starting running back for an Eagles offense that already ranks third overall in production at the midpoint of the season. After racking up six runs of 25 yards or more last season, Ajayi has zero this year. The Eagles think they can turn Ajayi into an RB who stays within the offensive scheme and still makes big plays. Ajayi ran for 200 yards in a game three times last season. The Eagles have had three 200-yard rushing games in their entire history, which spans 1,180 games.

Team Statistics

Offense:

• Average Score For: 29
• Total Yards: 371.75
• Pass Yards: 242.50
• Rush Yards: 129.25

Defense:

• Average Score Against: 21
• Total Yards: 261.27
• Pass Yards: 188.14
• Rush Yards: 72.86

Latest NFL Betting Trends

• Broncos are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 games
• Broncos are 1-4 SU in the last 5 games
• The total went OVER in 5 of Denver’s last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
• Eagles are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 games
• Eagles are 5-0 SU in the last 5 games
• The total went OVER in 5 of Philadelphia’s last 7 games

Expert Prediction & Week 10 NFL Pick

Since 2014, the Eagles have gone 10-4 straight-up against the AFC and 11-3 ATS. That’s enough for me. Buy this down to 6.5 in the NFL spread and pick Philly.