Zeke-less Cowboys Visit the Falcons as the NFL Week 10 Odds Underdog

Posted by Jordan Walters on Friday,November 10, 2017 4:04, EST in

Last season, the Dallas Cowboys were the No. 1 seed in the NFC and the Atlanta Falcons the No. 2 – although they never met in the playoffs. And it’s possible neither will make it to the postseason this year as they square off Sunday in Atlanta, with the Falcons as 3-point NFL Week 10 odds favorite. Keep in mind Dallas will be without its superstar running back Ezekiel Elliott.

Dallas (5-3) at Atlanta (4-4) NFL Week 10 Odds & Expert Pick

  • When: Sunday, 4:25 PM ET
  • Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
  • TV: Fox
  • Radio: 105.3 FM (Dallas) / 92.9 FM (Atlanta)
  • Stream Option: NFL Live
  • Opening NFL Week 10 Odds: Falcons -3 (Over/Under at 48.5)

Weather Forecast

  • Overcast: 9°C/48°F
  • Humidity: 74%
  • Precipitation: 15%
  • Cloud Cover: 100%
  • Wind: 4 mph NE
  • Stadium Type: Retractable

How to Bet Vikings at Redskins Week 10 NFL Lines & Pick

Last Meeting

Had Dallas beaten Green Bay in last year’s playoffs, the Cowboys would have hosted the Falcons in the NFC title game. Instead, Atlanta hosted that and crushed Green Bay.

The last meeting between the Falcons and Cowboys Week 3 of the 2015 season in Dallas, a 39-28 Falcons win. Matt Ryan threw for 285 yards and two touchdowns, both to Julio Jones. He had 12 catches for 164 yards. Devonta Freeman rushed 30 times for 141 yards and three scores. The Cowboys’ QB that day was Brandon Weeden and their leading rusher was Joseph Randle. Both those guys are long gone.

Why consider the Cowboys NFL Week 10 Odds?

The Cowboys have won three consecutive games, including last week’s 28-17 victory over Kansas City. Dak Prescott threw two touchdown passes – both to wide receiver Cole Beasley – and added a rushing TD. Prescott joined Cam Newton as the only players in NFL history to have at least 35 touchdown passes (39) and 10 rushing touchdowns (10) in their first two seasons.

Prescott, who is in his second NFL season, has five career games with multiple touchdown passes and a rushing touchdown. On Sunday, he can tie Newton (six) for the most games with multiple touchdown passes and a rushing touchdown in a player’s first two career seasons.

Defensive end Demarcus Lawrence ranks second in the NFL – and leads the NFC – with a career-high 10.5 sacks. Lawrence has recorded at least one sack in seven of the Cowboys’ eight games this season.

The Cowboys will be without superstar running back Ezekiel Elliott – whose six-game suspension is back on after a court decision on Thursday. The next hearing in Elliott’s case is set for Dec. 1. Pending unforeseen legal intervention, he will miss four games. It’s a big a blow to the Cowboys, who have won three straight and seen Elliott gain at least 93 yards in the past four games while scoring five rushing touchdowns.

Top Cowboys WR Dez Bryant (ankle, knee) said he plans to play Week 10 even though he barely practiced this week. Bryan was having one of his best games of the season before his injury in Week 9, gashing Kansas City for 73 yards on six catches. However, left tackle Tyron Smith is likely out due to a groin issue. Bryon Bell and Chaz Green are candidates to start in his place.

Team Statistics

Defense

  • Average Score Against: 22.25
  • Total Yards: 324.63
  • Rush Yards: 101.25
  • Passing Yards: 223.38

Offense

  • Average Score For: 28.25
  • Total Yards: 370.5
  • Rush Yards: 148.12
  • Passing Yards: 222.38

Why consider the Falcons NFL Week 10 Odds?

Matt Ryan passed for 313 yards and two touchdowns in last week’s 20-17 loss at Carolina. Ryan, who played in his 150th game, has 39,858 career passing yards, the most in NFL history by a player in his first 150 games. Ryan’s 3,465 career completions are the second most in NFL history by a player in his first 150 career games, trailing only Drew Brees (3,494).

Jones leads the NFC with 658 receiving yards. In his career, Jones is averaging 95 receiving yards per game (8,268 yards in 87 games), the highest mark in NFL history (minimum 50 games).

With the Falcons fading in the NFC South, Jones could be pushed to play at less than 100 percent. He had a terrible drop of a sure touchdown last week. He hasn’t missed a game yet this season despite showing up on the injury report already this year with back and hip flexor injuries before the ankle problem.

Julio Jones is doubtful, but the Falcons remain as the NFL Week 10 Odds favorite.

Even with Dallas missing Elliott, the run game will be important Sunday. Dallas enters Sunday’s game averaging 4.82 rushing yards per play, the most in the NFL. Atlanta’s defense, meanwhile, is 23rd in that same measurement, allowing 4.24 rushing yards per play. Beginning with the loss to the Buffalo Bills in Week 4, the Falcons allowed more than 100 rushing yards in three straight games before shutting down the New York Jets’ ground game in Week 8. But the Falcons allowed 201 yards on the ground last week vs. Carolina.

In their losses, the Falcons have struggled with time of possession, watching their opponents bleed the clock with extended drives. The Cowboys are ninth in the NFL in time of possession, averaging 30 minutes and 46 seconds with the ball per game.

Team Statistics

Defense

  • Average Score Against: 21.50
  • Total Yards: 321.75
  • Rush Yards: 114.50
  • Passing Yards: 207.25

Offense

  • Average Score For: 21.25
  • Total Yards: 372.25
  • Rush Yards: 114.75
  • Passing Yards: 257.50

Game Trends & Expert Prediction

  • Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November
  • Cowboys are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following an ATS win
  • Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss
  • Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall
  • Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings

I think the Cowboys can still win this game even without Ezekiel Elliott, remember Julio Jones will not be at 100 percent. But to be safe, buy this line up to 3.5 and go Dallas.