Stars vs Lightning NHL Spread & Betting Analysis

Stars vs Lightning NHL Spread & Betting Analysis

Written by on February 14, 2019

Tyler Seguin and the Dallas Stars are playing solid hockey heading into their Valentine’s Day matchup, but they’ll need to be at their very best if they want to get the big road upset over the explosive – and streaking – Tampa Bay Lightning on Thursday night.

If you’re an NHL betting aficionado that is looking for value, then this contest is offering plenty of it. Now, let’s find out why.

Stars vs Lightning NHL Spread & Betting Analysis

Why Bet on Dallas?

Why should you consider betting on Dallas in this Inter-Conference clash? Because they’re playing solid hockey, having won six of their last eight games coming into this matchup including a 3-0 shutout win over Florida on Tuesday.

Tyler Seguin scored in the first and third periods for the Stars while  Esa Lindell added a second period goal and goalie Anton Khudobin turned back 30 shots in a contest that was never in doubt.

“We had to have a couple guys get X-rays just to make sure their bones weren’t broken from blocked shots,” Dallas coach Jim Montgomery told reporters. “I mean, that’s a team commitment to our identity, and I’m just really proud of the positive talk on the bench. It was a real good group effort.”

The best reason to back the Stars might be because they rank a stupendous second in goals allowed (2.5 gpg). Unfortunately, Dallas also averages just 2.6 goals per contest to rank an uninspiring 29th in scoring.

Team Statistics

Offense
  • Goals: 2.59
  • Shots: 29.96
  • PP/PK Percentage: 20.55
Defense
  • Goals: 2.50
  • Shots: 30.96
  • PP/PK Percentage: 16.67

Why Bet on Tampa Bay?

Are the Lightinng a safe bet in the NHL spread?

Why should you consider betting on the Lightning in this one? There are a bunch of good reasons, starting with the fact that Tampa Bay has won three in a row while scoring five goals or more each time out including their commanding 6-3 win over Calgary on Tuesday.

Six different players scored for Tampa Bay the last time outright and 11 players posted at least one point against an elite Calgary squad.

“We’ve got the top guys going and we’re getting scoring contributions from the other guys as well,” Tampa Bay captain Steven Stamkos told reporters. “Pretty dangerous combination to have. That’s why I think we’re having a lot of success is we’re getting contributions from everyone. That’s when we’re at our best is when everyone’s rolling and it’s tough to keep up with everyone.”

The best reason to back the explosive Lightning is because they lead the NHL in scoring by averaging a stellar 3.8 goals per game while also ranking a fantastic sixth in goals allowed (2.8 gpg). Last but not least, the Lightning are playing at home where they’ve gone 22-5-1-1 this season.

Team Statistics

Offense
  • Goals: 3.91
  • Shots: 32.42
  • PP/PK Percentage: 29.73
Defense
  • Goals: 2.79
  • Shots: 32.19
  • PP/PK Percentage: 15.76

Stars vs Lightning NHL Betting Trends

  • Dallas is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
  • Dallas is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Dallas’s last 7 games
  • Tampa Bay is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
  • Tampa Bay is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Tampa Bay’s last 12 games

Expert Analysis and Prediction for Stars vs Lightning 

The Dallas Stars are 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game and 4-1 in their last 5 games following a win, but I don’t think it matters much seeing as how Tampa Bay is clearly the better team in this contest, particularly at the offensive end of the ice.

The Stars really struggle to score and that doesn’t bode well as they get set to take on a Tampa Bay team that has put 16 goals on the board in their last three games. The Lightning are 45-11 in their last 56 games as a home favorite of -151 to -200 and 12-3 in their last 15 after scoring 5 goals or more in their previous game. I’m going to back Tampa Bay to avoid the letdown after their big win over Calgary earlier this week!

NHL Betting Pick: Tampa Bay 4 Dallas 1

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