No. 20 Texas vs. Colorado Alamo Bowl

No. 20 Texas vs. Colorado Alamo Bowl | 2020 NCAAF Expert Analysis

Written by on December 28, 2020

It’s a matchup of former Big 12 rivals in Tuesday’s second bowl game as Texas of the Big 12 faces Colorado of the Pac-12 in the Alamo Bowl from San Antonio. The No. 20 Longhorns are solid favorites on the NCAAF odds.

How to Bet Texas vs. Colorado NCAA Football Odds & TV Info
  • When: Tuesday, 9 PM ET
  • Where: Alamodome, San Antonio
  • TV: ESPN
  • Stream: ESPN app
  • Radio:com
  • Opening NCAAF Lines: Texas -9.5 (total 63.5)
Series History

It’s the 19th meeting between these two teams. The first was in 1940 and the last in 2009 when the Buffaloes still played in the Big 12. Texas leads the all-time series 11-7. Texas has won seven of the last eight meetings, including each of the last five. Pac-12 Conference teams are 5-8 in the Valero Alamo Bowl; current members of the Big 12 are 11-10.

Why Bet on Texas? | 2020 NCAAF Expert Analysis

The Horns (6-3) are led by QB Sam Ehlinger, who even though he’s a senior could opt to come back next season. He has completed 184-of-306 passes (60.1%) for 2,406 yards and 25 touchdowns to five interceptions this season. He has also rushed for 382 yards and eight touchdowns to tally 2,788 yards of total offense and 33 total touchdowns.

The 202 points responsible for are the third-most in the country this season, and he also ranks third in points responsible for per game (22.4) and eighth in passing touchdowns (25). Among Big 12 competitors this season, Ehlinger leads the conference in passing touchdowns (25), points responsible for (202), points responsible for per game (22.4) and total offense (309.8). Ehlinger is only the fifth Big 12 quarterback over the last 20 years to throw at least 25 touchdowns in three consecutive seasons, and is the only Longhorn ever to achieve that feat. He has not thrown an interception in 123-straight attempts,

The Horns have lost a few players to opt outs to prepare for the NFL Draft of late: Edge rusher Joseph Ossai, defensive lineman Ta’Quon Graham and defensive back Chris Brown. Ossai was one of the Longhorns’ standouts on the defensive side as in nine games he tallied 55 total tackles (16.0 for loss), 5.0 sacks, three forced fumbles, one fumble recovery, two quarterback hurries and two pass breakups. He could be a first-round pick.

This will be Texas’ 57th bowl game appearance, second only to Alabama (72) in NCAA history. The Longhorns are 30-24-2 all-time in bowl games, tied for the nation’s fourth-most bowl victories. The Longhorns are 3-1 in their previous Alamo Bowl outings (Win – 2006, 2012, 2019; Loss – 2013).

The Longhorns have scored at least 30 points in 13 of their 18 all-time meetings against the Buffaloes, including each of the last seven matchups.

Why Bet on Colorado? | 2020 NCAAF Expert Analysis

Colorado (4-1) was a pleasant surprise this season. Karl Dorrell was named the Pac-12 Coach of the Year, and sophomore tailback Jarek Broussard was the co-Offensive Player of the Year.

Broussard led the Pac-12 in rushing during the regular season, averaging 162.6 yards per game, with his 175.6 average for all-purpose yards also a league best.  He was only the fourth player to gain 100 or more yards in his first four career games in the NCAA Division I-A/FBS since 1996, and he is the first Buffalo running back to earn first-team all-conference honors since Brown in 2002 (Big 12).

Dorrell is the third CU head coach to lead the Buffs to a bowl game in his first season, joining Rick Neuheisel (’96 Cotton) and Barnett (’99 Insight.com).  And he is also the first CU coach in his first season to have his team go from unranked in the preseason to ranked. Colorado was given an Over/Under betting win total of just 1.5 for the six-game schedule (CU had one game canceled).

Junior tight end Brady Russell (ankle) could return for the bowl. Russell had surgery in mid-November for an ankle injury sustained against Stanford on November 14. He had a big game against UCLA the week prior, catching five passes for 77 yards and a touchdown.

Colorado owns a 12-17 record all-time in bowl games, including a 4-5 mark in the state of Texas.  The CU roster features 22 players from the state of Texas. Texas will be the third Big 12 school the Buffaloes will play since leaving for the Pac-12 in 2011.

It will be CU’s third appearance in Alamo Bowl, as the Buffaloes lost in overtime to Wisconsin in 2002 (31-28) and to Oklahoma State in 2016 (38-8).  Colorado will serve as the home team for the game.

Game Trends
  • Longhorns are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.
  • Longhorns are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Pac-12.
  • Longhorns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in December.
  • Buffaloes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
  • Buffaloes are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.
  • Buffaloes are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games as an underdog.
Expert Prediction
  • Texas 38, Colorado 20

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