In my last Pinball article, I correctly chose the winner of the Stern Pro Circuit Championship, Andy Rosa at +8000 odds. I guess you can call me a Pinball Wizard of sorts. Now, I’m back to try and do it again for the Texas Pinball Festival on March 22 & 23. Below, I’ll explain my easy pick, my longshot pick, and whether or not the winner will be from Texas.
2019 Texas Pinball Festival Odds, Predictions & Picks
The Favorite: Raymond Davidson
- 2019 Texas Pinball Festival Odds: +410
After doing my research, I’ve realized this will probably be quite a popular pick. Davidson is ranked number one in the world according to the World Pinball Player Rankings, and is in his athletic prime at age 26. Not to mention the guy is on absolute fire; he’s finished in first place in an absurd eleven out of his past nineteen tournaments.
Looking at his main competitors, the next closest odds belong to Colin MacAlpine, +470, and Karl DeAngelo, +700, ranked 21st and 42nd, respectively. To me, this is just way too big of a gap between rankings to have odds this close together.
For reference, the number one ranked (BPI) NCAA basketball team Virginia has +650 odds to win the National Championship. The 21st and 42nd ranked teams (Villanova and UCF), have odds of +3000 and +20000, respectively.
Davidson also has a winning record head-to-head with every single person participating in the tournament. Combine all this with the fact that Davidson has won an incredible 71 out of 274 tournaments (26%) and I definitely see some value.
The Longshot: Zachary Parks
- 2019 Texas Pinball Festival Odds: +4900
The 16-year-old whiz-kid burst on to the Pinball scene at the age of ten. Since then, he’s won a total of 13 tournaments out of the 122 he’s participated in. However, don’t get discouraged by his 10.5% winning percentage, as a great deal of those losses came when he was a pre-teen.
Now, Parks’ voice has dropped, his braces are getting ready to be taken off, and he’s eager to bring home that first place trophy to flaunt to all the high school girls waiting to get their hands on a professional athlete.
Parks is also in good form as he’s won the last two tournaments he’s played in. If you reference my last article, I state this very exact reason as to why Rosa was my longshot pick. Don’t count this kid out.
Will the Winner be from Texas?
I’ve gone ahead and saved you the trouble of finding where each player is from. Below are the list of competitors who are from Texas according to their IFPA profile:
- Colin MacAlpine, +470
- Steven Bowden, +850
- Robert Byers, +1200
- Phillip Grimaldi, +1700
Combined, the implied odds of 41.32% (17.54 + 10.53 + 7.69 + 5.56) that one of them will win is much higher than the implied odds of 31.25% insinuated by the line of +220. To me, there isn’t enough juice on the line to wager on four guys in a field of 30+. Take the safe bet here and slam “No” while picking a one of the longshots to win outright.
Remember, if there are pinball odds on the table, there’s always an angle.
