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Rays vs. Dodgers

Rays vs. Dodgers World Series Game 6 | 2020 MLB Expert Analysis

Written by on October 26, 2020

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The Los Angeles Dodgers haven’t won the World Series since 1988, but they can finish off the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 6 of the Fall Classic on Tuesday night with a 3-2 lead. L.A. is favored on the MLB odds and also the home team at the neutral site.

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Why Bet on Tampa Bay? | 2020 MLB Expert Analysis

The last two times that the Rays lost in this series they won the next game. Tampa was a 4-2 loser on Sunday night in Game 5. Tyler Glasnow went five innings and allowed four runs to take a loss.

Yandy Diaz went 2-for-3 with a triple and an RBI in the defeat. Diaz singled in the first, but the big hit was a triple in the third off Clayton Kershaw to score Kevin Kiermaier. He came around to score a play later on a Randy Arozarena single. Diaz hits leadoff against lefties, but with Tony Gonsolin starting Game 6 on Tuesday, there’s a good chance that Diaz begins on the bench.

Arozarena delivered an RBI single in the third inning. He established an MLB Postseason record with his 27th hit of the 2020 playoffs, surpassing the mark of 26 held by Pablo Sandoval (2014). His 27 hits also match BJ Upton for the most career postseason hits by a Rays hitter. Arozarena also holds the MLB record for the most total bases (59) in a single postseason, surpassing the mark held by David Freese (50) in 2011.

The Rays fell to 1-6 all-time in Game 5 of a postseason series. The Rays are now 0-2 in Game 5 of the Fall Classic. Tampa Bay is now 1-2 this postseason in Game 5.

It’s Blake Snell on the mound. In Game 2 vs. the Dodgers, he took no decision despite starting the game holding the Dodgers hitless through 4.2 innings. L.A. went 1-2-3 in the 1st inning, then stranded a pair of walks in the 2nd. Following a 1-out walk in the 2nd, Snell retired his next 10 batters faced, including 6 strikeouts, before allowing a walk and a 2-run homer to Chris Taylor in the 5th.

Snell is 2-3 with a 3.03 ERA (29.2-IP, 10-ER) in eight career postseason apps (6 starts), incl. 2-2 with a 3.33 ERA (24.1-IP, 9-ER) in 5 starts this postseason. He made his only other career start against the Dodgers on Sept. 17, 2019 at Dodger Stadium.

Why Bet on Los Angeles? | 2020 MLB Expert Analysis

This marks the 68th time that the World Series has stood at 3-2. Of the previous 67 times, the team with the 3-2 lead has gone on to win the series 44 times (65.7%). Of the 67 occurrences, the team with 3-2 lead has won Game 6 on 25 occasions (37.3%). That has been the case in seven of the last 15 occurrences (2013 Red Sox, 2009 Yankees, 2003 Marlins, 1996 Yankees, 1995 Braves, 1993 Blue Jays and 1992 Blue Jays).

Of the 42 times that a team leading 3-2 has dropped Game 6, they have gone on to win the series just 19 times (45.2%). Eleven of the last 14 teams to lose Game 6 with a 3-2 lead have gone on to lose the series. The last four teams with a 3-2 lead to lose Game 6 and win the series were the 2017 Astros, 2014 Giants, 1997 Marlins and 1975 Reds.

This is the eighth time since 1900 that the Dodgers have led a best-of-seven postseason series, 3-2, and the sixth time in the Fall Classic (1981, 1965, 1959, 1955, 1952). LA also led the 2018 and 1988 NLCS with a 3-2 mark and successfully reached the Fall Classic both times. Overall, the Dodgers have gone on to win the series each time, except for the 1952 World Series when they lost to the Yankees in seven games.

Max Muncy went 2-for-3 with a solo homer and a walk in Sunday’s win. With the Dodgers leading 3-2, Muncy added some insurance with shot off of Tyler Glasnow in the fifth that extended that lead to 4-2.  Muncy became the ninth different Dodgers player to homer in the 2020 Fall Classic. The Dodgers are the first team in World Series history to have nine different players homer in a single series. The previous record of eight was set by the 1989 Athletics.

The Dodgers have hit multiple homers in eight consecutive postseason games, extending their MLB postseason record. The previous mark of six straight games was held by the Yankees (2019-2020).

Corey Seager delivered an RBI single in the first inning, his 19th RBI of the 2020 postseason. Seager is now tied with David Ortiz (19), Scott Spiezio (2002) and Sandy Alomar (1997) for the second-most in a single postseason, trailing only David Freese (21 RBI, 2011).

It’s Tony Gonsolin on the mound but he won’t be out there long. Gonsolin started Game 2 of the World Series and he went just 1 1/3 before being pulled while allowing one run. The right-hander has made three appearances thus far in the postseason, but he has pitched just 7 2/3 frames in those appearances, and allowed eight runs.

Game Trends
  • Rays are 5-1 in their last 6 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Rays are 18-4 in their last 22 games following a loss.
  • Rays are 14-6 in their last 20 games as an underdog.
  • Dodgers are 45-17 in their last 62 games following an off day.
  • Dodgers are 19-8 in their last 27 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Expert Prediction Rays 5, Dodgers 4
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