Finals Week 2 NRL: Breaking Down the Matchups & Picks

The first week of the NRL Finals are in the books, with a pair of teams moving on, while 2 more were officially eliminated.

Before we get into Week 2 and the matchups that are coming our way, we should probably do a quick recap of the finals format and how things have played out to this point.

My Analysis for the Finals Week 2 NRL

At the end of the regular season, the top 8 teams on the ladder go into the playoffs, or the Finals as they are known.

Those teams are then split into two groups of 4, with the top 4 teams in one group and the bottom 4 in the other.

The 2 winners in the top group move on, while the losers live to fight another day, going against the winners from the bottom group.

The losers in that group are officially eliminated.

With all of that said, let’s take a look at how things played out in Week 1:

Panthers 30–10 Roosters
Storm 37–10 Sharks

The Panthers and Storm move on, while the Roosters and Sharks live to fight another day.

Cowboys 28–16 Knights
Bulldogs 22-24 Sea Eagles

Triumph and heartache 💔 #NRLFinals pic.twitter.com/jirokkMfdL
— NRL (@NRL) September 16, 2024

The Cowboys and Sea Eagles win and move on to Week 2, while the Knights and Bulldogs are done for the season. Next up, let’s take a look at the matchups coming in Week 2, with betting predictions for each.

Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks -172 vs North Queensland Cowboys +143

When: Friday, September 20, 5:50 AM ET

Despite getting soundly beaten by the Storm in Week 1, the Sharks get an opportunity to bounce back at home to the Cowboys, who had a solid showing in their Week 1 game.

Going back over the years, these teams have met 54 times, with the Sharks winning 35 of those games.

In the last 2 meetings, though, these teams have split the difference, with the home team winning both games, which could potentially swing things in the favor of the Sharks this weekend.

If you look at the extended stats for these two, you see a pair of teams that are very evenly matched.

Realistically, it may well be the location that serves as the decider here, which is why I am leaning toward the Sharks getting the win and moving on.

Sydney Roosters -189 vs Manly Sea Eagles +149

When: Saturday, September 21, 5:50 AM ET

While there is certainly a benefit to finishing in the top 4 in the NRL in that you potentially get 2 shots to win and move on, the reality is that it can be tough to bounce back from a loss.

The Roosters were soundly beaten by the Panthers last weekend, and they now need to pick themselves up and try to get ready for a Sea Eagles team that is sure to still be on a high after a big road win in Week 1.

The Sea Eagles have a slight edge in past meetings, going 22-20 against the Roosters, but it has been the home team that has won each of the last 2.

While the Roosters definitely have the home edge, we need to remember that while they beat the Sea Eagles in their last visit, it was a close game that went down to the wire, with the Rooster winning that one 34-30.

If you are looking for an upset, the Sea Eagles might be the team to look at.

Rugby League NRL Odds To Reach the Grand Final

Penrith Panthers +129
Melbourne Storm +138
Sydney Roosters +1175
Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks +1375
North Queensland Cowboys +1750
Manly Sea Eagles +1775

One step closer 🤫#NRLFinals pic.twitter.com/D6uqzFCDF9
— NRL (@NRL) September 15, 2024

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2023 Finals Week 2 Games

One of the most important weekends of the NRL season takes place this weekend, as the final two spots in the Preliminary Finals will be determined.

All four sides will still have their sights set on the Grand Final on October 1, but which teams will keep their dreams alive this weekend with huge victories to set up the Preliminary Finals?

Below is the betting information needed ahead of the first Finals Week 2 matchups along with the NRL betting lines offered by MyBookie Sportsbook.

NRL Betting Picks and Analysis for First Finals Week 2 Games | MyBookie Rugby Betting Preview

2023 National Rugby League | 116th season of professional rugby league in Australia
Finals Week 2 of the NRL season
Friday, September 15th – Saturday, September 16th, 2023

Melbourne Storm vs Sydney Roosters

NRL Odds: Storm -11.5; Roosters +11.5 / Storm -416; Roosters +333 / O/U 40.5
Friday, September 15th, 2023 at 5:50 a.m. EST
AAMI Park, Melbourne, Australia

The first of the two semi-finals in the NRL this weekend will take place on Friday as the Storm welcome the Roosters to Melbourne. Melbourne will be looking to get back on track following a thumping defeat against the Broncos last weekend, but their overall form remains strong, as they have won four of their last five.

Their chances this weekend are certainly enhanced based on the fact that they won each of the two regular-season matchups between the sides this season, but this weekend, they will come up against a much different Roosters outfit.

However, Sydney have won just four of their eleven matches at AAMI Park, meaning that a huge showdown against the Panthers in the Preliminary Finals could be an outside bet.

The Storm have dominated the previous encounters between the sides, as they have won seven of the last eight. However, the Roosters often come alive at this point of the season, as they have won eight of their 12 finals matches, which includes three in four against the Storm. There is a very big case to be made that the visitors could upset the odds this weekend and register a seventh straight win.

NRL Finals Week 2 Pick: Sydney Roosters +324 | Bet Storm vs. Roosters Today
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Game

New Zealand Warriors vs Newcastle Knights

NRL Odds: Warriors -4.5; Knights +4.5 / Warriors -188; Knights +147 / O/U 41.5
Saturday, September 16th, 2023 at 2:50 a.m. EST
Go Media Stadium, Auckland, Australia

The second of the semi-finals will take place on Saturday morning in New Zealand, as the Warriors host the Knights. The hosts finished the regular season in fourth place overall, as they won 16 of their 24 matches. However, they are in need of a response after losing each of their last two, which includes a 32-8 defeat against the Panthers last weekend.

Newcastle finished just a place below the Warriors in the regular standings, but the confidence around the camp will be high after a narrow 30-28 win in their first post-season match against the Raiders last weekend. They appear to be hitting form at just the right moment, as they have won each of their last ten matches.

A victory this weekend would equal the Knights’ best-ever winning sequence, but they have landed just eight victories from 22 visits to Go Media Stadium. This will be the first time since 2008 that the Warriors have played a home final match, and they come into the fixture in excellent home form after winning their last four.

However, it could be challenging to overlook the dominant streak that Newcastle are on, and they will be favored among many this weekend to pick up a fifth win in sixth against the Warriors to set up a Preliminary Final date next weekend.

NRL Finals Week 2 Pick: Newcastle Knights +159 | Bet Warriors vs. Knights Today
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Game

2023 NRL Finals Week 2 Schedule

Date	Time	Home		Away
Friday, September 15	3:50 a.m.	Melbourne Storm	vs.	Sydney Roosters
Saturday, September 16	12:30 a.m.	New Zealand Warriors	vs.	Newcastle Knights

Bet NRL Finals Week 2 Games