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We seem to say this every week when we talk about the NRL, but the reality is that the ladder is about as tight as it gets as we head into Week 22.

The Storm looks strong at the top, with the Panthers hot on their heels, but when you get beyond those two teams, you see that there is just 4 points separating the team in the #3 spot from the team currently sitting in the #10 slot.

My Analysis for Round 22 top games

What that means is that we are almost certainly looking at a top 8 battle that is going to go all the way down to the final week of the season.

Given how close things are, the ladder standings can change quickly, which makes every game important, but let’s take a quick look at 4 NRL games that we like this weekend.

Dolphins (Nrl) +283 vs Sydney Roosters -385

Fri Aug 2, 6:00 AM | The Dolphins come into this one very much in need of a win. They have only managed one victory in their last 4 games, a run that has seen them drop all the way down to the #8 spot.

Another loss this weekend could well see they fall below the cut line, so they need to take advantage of playing at home, although they are just 4-5 there.

The Roosters are sitting in 3rd and trying to keep pace with the top two.

They have won 3 of their last 4 games and do have a winning record on the road at 5-4.

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MyBookie NRL Betting Odds to Win

Melbourne Storm -1250 vs St George Illawarra Dragons +586

Sat Aug 3, 3:30 AM | It is beginning to look as through the Storm will end up walking away with the #1 seed once all is said and done.

Since their bye week, they have won 4 in a row and have opened up a 4-point lead at the top of the ladder.

They have been almost impossible to beat at home, going 9-1 in their own building.

The Dragons are in need of a win, as they are currently a couple of spots below the cut line, sitting in 10th. They are 2-2 in their last 4 games and are also 4-5 in road games this season.

Penrith Panthers -1000 vs Newcastle Knights +539

Sat Aug 3, 12:00 AM | While you would certainly expect the top teams to continue winning, this season has proven that you simply cannot take anything for granted.

The Panthers are still within striking distance of the top spot, sitting 2nd, 4 points out of the lead.

They are 3-1 in their last 4 games and have been very good at home, going 6-2.

The Knights are down in the #11 spot right now, but they are also just 2 points out of the top 8. They are 2-2 in their last 4 games and are 4-5 on the road.

Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs -278 vs Canberra Raiders +209

Sun, Aug 4, 2:05 AM | These two teams are a perfect example of just how tight the ladder is at the moment.

While they are separated by 4 places, they are also just 2 points apart.

The Bulldogs are sitting in the #5 spot and have been in very good form, winning 3 of their last 4.

They have been fantastic at home this season, going a perfect 8-0. The Raiders are sitting just below the cut line in 9th and have been up and down of late, going 2-2 in their last 4 games.

They have also had issues on the road, with a record of 3-5.

Rugby League NRL Winner Odds

Penrith Panthers +175
Sydney Roosters +300
Melbourne Storm +300
Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks +1600
Manly Sea Eagles +1775
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs +1800
North Queensland Cowboys +1975
Brisbane Broncos +4900
Dolphins NRL +6600
New Zealand Warriors +10000
Canberra Raiders +14000
St George Illawarra Dragons +15000
Newcastle Knights +20000
South Sydney Rabbitohs +24000
Gold Coast Titans +48000
Wests Tigers +250000
Parramatta Eels +250000

Nathan Cleary is your Bundy Mixer #NRL Player of the Round scoring 112 points! 💯

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— NRL (@NRL) July 31, 2024