Hard as it may seem to believe, we are now very close to the start of the 2024 college football season.
The off season always feels ridiculously long, so it’s always exciting once we get to that final countdown to Week 1. By this point, I’m sure some of you already have wagers in play.
My Analysis
It might be future bets such as the National Championship winner or the individual conference winners.
You guys may also have some wagers going on the win totals for specific teams. There are sure to be other bettors who are holding off and deciding how to spend their money this coming season.
Here are some tips that might help you safely navigate the opening few weeks of the college football season.
^Start Off Slow
We are all itching for football to return, with our bankrolls burning a hole in our pockets.
While we are all keen to return to wagering on college football, we all want that bankroll to last the entire season.
With that in mind, it’s wise to put some limits on what you wager each week.
This is especially true in the early going, as we don’t really know what to expect from any team, which leads us nicely into the next early season college football betting tip.
^Don’t Believe the Hype
Every single pundit will already have made posts about who they believe will make the playoffs and win the National Championship.
If you look at those picks, you will clearly see that no one is in full agreement about how things will go this season.
The reality is that we can all guess about how things might play out, but until we get to see teams actually play football, it really is all just guesswork.
Don’t go all in on any one team based on what the pundits say.
^Be Careful with the Spread Bet
There are going to be some serious mismatches coming our way in the opening few weeks of the college football season, which means some large spreads will be in play.
I am always wary of those big spreads, as you are never really sure at which point the favorites will take their foot off the gas and start putting in some of the bench guys in blowout games.
Sure, some will go all out to rack up the points in hopes of impressing the Playoff Committee, but it’s always risky to go with those massive spreads, especially in the early going.
^Be Aware of Conference Realignment
This was a huge off season in terms of teams moving to new conferences, which is something you need to be aware of.
Not every team is going to head to a new conference and settle in immediately, while others will hit the ground running.
You also need to be keeping an eye on injuries, as those too will be a factor. For example, take a look at Texas right now. Not only are they playing in a new conference, but they are also picking up injuries at the running back position.
How is all of that going to impact their season?
^Texas suffered its second season-ending injury at running back Monday when true freshman Christian Clark tore an Achilles tendon in practice, the school announced Tuesday. https://t.co/AcLqnXkAXt
— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) August 14, 2024
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Betting Strategies First Weeks, August 24, 2022
On August 27, the new college football season kicks off, which means we’ve got a few days to get our NCAAF betting strategies down. The best overall strategy is to break up the season into parts. The first part includes strategies before oddsmakers adjust lines. Check out College Football Betting strategies for the first few weeks of the 2022 NCAAF Season.
How to Make Money Betting on the First Weeks of the College Football Season
2022-23 NCAAF College Football Season
- When: August 27, 2022 – Dec. 10, 2022
Lean on teams with top offenses
In the NFL, defenses often hit the ground running. The same isn’t true in the college game.
The reason is because in the National Football League, player turnover isn’t as prevalent as it is in college football. In the early weeks, we want to back offenses that will light up the scoreboard and put defenses on their heels.
One of those teams is Ohio State. The Buckeyes start the season versus Notre Dame. The Irish have a great defense, but it shouldn’t be ready to keep Ohio State from scoring 28 or more.
Give teams with returning offensive line an edge
Teams like Alabama, Ohio State, and Baylor return players along the offensive line. Figure out the teams that return players along the offensive line and then back them against the spread.
You will win more than you lose for sure. Offensive line, and offensive line depth, is one of the best ways to find overlay college football plays.
Beware backing teams to cover with the “single game” star
The single game star is a player like Georgia quarterback Stetson Bennett who rocked it in the National Championship game versus Alabama. That’s not to say the Bulldogs don’t cover the spread in the early weeks.
It is to say you must make sure you’re not backing the Dawgs at an underlay number because the public believes Bennett is a Heisman Trophy contender. A single game means nothing.
Never forget that coaching changes can take time
Dan Lanning at Oregon, Brian Kelly at LSU, Brett Venables at Oklahoma, and Marcus Freeman at Notre Dame are excellent college football coaches. But all four head to programs as new head coaches and may require time for their teams to start dominating against the spread.
Reconsider backing the Ducks, Tigers, Sooners, and Fighting Irish if they’re going off at underlay odds. Coaches don’t care about covering spreads. So Kelly, Lanning, Freeman and Venables will use the early weeks to get their players on the same page.
Early in the season, teams tend to “bounce” after excellent performances
The dreaded bounce happens much earlier in the season, when teams are fresh, then it does later in the season. Going against a team after a huge win to cover in their very next game is especially effective if the team won the game as an underdog.
So if Notre Dame somehow upsets Ohio State, they could be a bad play versus Marshall on Sep. 10. If Oregon miraculously beats Georgia on Sep. 3, the Ducks could show underlay odds versus Eastern Michigan on Sep. 10.
Teams can bounce after a great performance in any week during the college football season. But for some reason, bounces tend to happen more in the early weeks than in the later weeks.
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