UFC 296: Edwards vs Covington Going for the UFC Welterweight Championship

Two of UFC’s most popular fighters throw down on Saturday night at T-Mobile Arena in Vegas in the main event at UFC 296.

Champion Leon Edwards puts his welterweight strap on the line versus Colby Covington. Right now, Edwards is the tepid -170 favorite.

Will the champ defend his title, or will Covington lift the belt?

Check out the UFC lines for the bouts, plus betting analysis, and free picks for the preliminary and main card at Saturday’s UFC 296.

UFC 296: Edwards vs Covington Betting Analysis for the Main Card and Prelim Bouts | MyBookie UFC Betting Online Preview

UFC 296: Edwards vs Covington
Saturday, December 16th at 10:00 pm ET | PPV
T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada

UFC 296: Prelims

Casey O’Neil vs Ariane Lipski

UFC Odds: Casey O’Neil -192; Ariane Lipski +160

Underdog Ariane Lipski has a 2 inches reach disadvantage. Lipski has fought well in recent bouts, though, winning 3-of-4. The lone loss in the last 5 came against Priscilla Cachoeira in 2022. Lipski has won her last 2 fights via decision.

O’Neil lost her last, but it was against veteran Jennifer Maia, and it happened via decision. The -192 favorite had won her previous 9 bouts. But although O’Neil could bounce back in this, Lipski offers overlay odds. Backing the underdog makes sense.   

UFC 296 Pick: Ariane Lipski | Bet Casey O’Neil vs Ariane Lipski Today
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Main Bout

Coby Garbrandt vs Brian Kelleher

UFC Odds: Coby Garbrandt -192; Brian Kelleher +160

Underdog Brian Kelleher hasn’t fought since 2022. Not only has Keller not fought since 2022 but when he did fight that year, it wasn’t pretty. Kelleher beat Kevin Croom via decision but lost via submission to both Umar Nurmagomedov and Mario Bautista.

Garbrandt had dropped matches to Rob Font and Kai Kara-France before winning his last via unanimous decision over Trevin Jones. The favorite in this has fought the much better fighters. Give Garbrandt the nod.

UFC 296 Pick: Coby Garbrandt | Bet Coby Garbrandt vs Brian Kelleher Today
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Main Bout

Irene Aldana vs Karol Rosa

UFC Odds: Irene Aldana -192; Karol Rosa +160

The favorite in this heads to the Octagon off a loss in her last. Ah, but the loss was against Amanda Nunes, a UFC legend, and it came in a title fight. Aldana pushed Nunes to the full 5 rounds in the fight and suffered a unanimous decision defeat.

Still, although Aldana should be the chalk, Karol Rosa is a tough competitor. Rosa has won 3-of-5. The 2 losses came via decision. When it comes to KO/TKO, the underdog has a fantastic 4-0 record. Give the +160 choice a chance.

UFC 296 Pick: Karol Rosa | Bet Irene Aldana vs Karol Rosa Today
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Main Bout

Alonzo Menifield vs Dustin Jacoby

UFC Odds: Alonzo Menifield +220; Dustin Jacoby -270

On paper and visually, Alonzo Menifield is a much better choice than the +220 odds imply. Menifield has a nice 14-3-1 record and has won 3-of-4 with a draw. What’s exciting bout the 3 wins is that Menifield won 2 bouts via KO/TKO and another bout via submission.

Dustin Jacoby had lost 2 straight before his last, a first round knockout victory over Kennedy Nzechukwu. Jacoby should be the favorite in this and has a real shot of beating Menifield because not only has the chalk fought better fighters but he’s also 3 inches taller.

But Menifield is a better than the +220 odds. Backing the overlay is never a bad bet.  

UFC 296 Pick: Alonzo Menifield | Bet Alonzo Menifield vs Dustin Jacoby Today
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Main Bout

UFC 296: Main Card

Josh Emmett vs Bryce Mitchell

UFC Odds: Josh Emmett +185; Bryce Mitchell -225

Josh Emmett had been rolling along, beating top mixed martial artists like Dan Ige and Calvin Kattar. But in his last couple of bouts, Emmett hasn’t fought well, losing to Yair Rodriguez via submission in a title fight and falling to Ilia Topuria via unanimous decision.

Favorite Bryce Mitchell has won 4-of-5 with a loss. Mitchell’s loss came against Topuria. But the favorite in this bounced back with a win over Ige in his last. The chalk takes this.

UFC 296 Pick: Bryce Mitchell | Bet Josh Emmett vs Bryce Mitchell Today
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Main Bout

Tony Ferguson vs Paddy Pimblett

UFC Odds: Tony Ferguson +255; Paddy Pimblett -320

At -320 odds, Paddy Pimblett is an overlay. Yes, you read that right. Pimblett is an overlay at -320 because Tony Ferguson should have retired about 5 bouts ago.

The 39-year-old has lost 6 straight fights since 2020. Pimblett hasn’t lost since 2018 and is on a 6-match winning streak. Also, Paddy is just 28. Pimblett ends this in the first round.

UFC 296 Pick: Paddy Pimblett | Bet Tony Ferguson vs Paddy Pimblett Today
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Main Bout

Shavkat Rakhmanov vs Stephen Thompson

UFC Odds: Shavkat Rakhmanov -650; Stephen Thompson +450

The odds on Rakhmanov had been around -750. The day before UFC 296, the odds have fallen to -650 on Shavkat. The underdog is attracting a lot of money.

But although Stephen Thompson can win this bout, Rakhmanov has a massive edge in one area. Thompson is 1-0 via submission. Shavkat is 8-0. If the fight goes to the mat, and it will because the chalk will make sure it does, Thompson should be in trouble.  

UFC 296 Pick: Shavkat Rakhmanov | Bet Shavkat Rakhmanov vs Stephen Thompson Today
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Main Bout

Alexandre Pantoja vs Brandon Royval

UFC Odds: Alexandre Pantoja -190; Brandon Royval +160
UFC Flyweight Title 

Brandon Royval has a 4 inches reach advantage. Also, the underdog in this is on a 3-match winning streak. So there are reasons to believe Royval could get the win.

However, Royval’s last loss came against the current champ, Alexandre Pantoja. Pantoja won the belt in his last, beating Brandon Moreno. There’s no way Pantoja allows Royval to take his strap so soon after winning the hardware. The favorite prevails.

UFC 296 Pick: Alexandre Pantoja | Bet Alexandre Pantoja vs Brandon Royval Today
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Main Bout

Leon Edwards vs Colby Covington

UFC Odds: Leon Edwards -170; Colby Covington +140
UFC Welterweight Title 

Covington has the talent to upset Edwards. However, Covington hasn’t fought since March 5, 2022, when he beat Jorge Masvidal.

The win was nice, but jumping into a championship bout after more than a year layoff isn’t the best idea. It’s especially a bad idea when the person you’re fighting is one of the to pound for pound mixed martial artists at UFC.

Edwards, for all intents and purposes, has ended Kamaru Usman’s career. Usman lost twice to Edwards in back-to-back matches and then lost to Khamzat Chimaev in his last.

The -170 favorite hasn’t lost since a defeat to Usman in 2015. Edwards should take advantage of Covington’s rustiness. Back the champ to keep his belt.

UFC 296 Pick: Leon Edwards | Bet Leon Edwards vs Colby Covington Today
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Main Bout

UFC 296: Edwards vs Covington Fight Card Schedule | MMA

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