This Saturday, Paul Felder battles Dan Hooker at Spark Arena in Auckland, New Zealand on UFC’s Fight Night. Felder will head into the Octagon an underdog against Hooker. Can Paul beat the favorite? Or, will Dan Hooker get it done? Check out analysis and a free pick for Hooker-Felder as well as picks for the other 5 fights on UFC Fight Night Feb. 22 card!
UFC Fight Night 168 Felder vs Hooker
- When: Saturday, Feb. 22 at 4:00 pm PST
- Where: Spark Arena, Auckland, New Zealand
- TV: ESPN+
- Live Stream: UFC Fight Pass
UFC Fight Night 168 Felder vs Hooker
Kevin Aguilar vs Zubaira Tukhugov
- UFC Fight Night Odds: Aguilar -115 / Tukhugov -115
Aguilar has a better record, 17-1, but Tukhugov has fought against better opponents. Zubaira has a 100% takedown defense. That means the 18-4 SU fighter should control when or if this fight goes to the mat. Tukhugov has excellent ground-game skills even though 6% of his wins have come via submission. Back Zubaira.
UFC Fight Night Betting Pick: Zubaira Tukhugov
Brad Riddell vs Magomed Mustafaev
- UFC Fight Night Odds: Riddell -105 / Mustafaev -125
Brad Riddell can strike, no doubt. If Riddell gets lucky, he could put a few punches onto Mustafaev. Who knows? Maybe, one of those punches gets through and puts Magomed on his back. But if we’re handicapping as if Riddell doesn’t get lucky, Mustafaev offers overlay odds at -125. He can fight standing up or on the ground. That gives him a massive advantage over Riddell. Magomed takes this.
UFC ESPN Betting Pick: Magomed Mustafaev
Ben Sosoli vs Marcos Rogerio De Lima
- UFC Fight Night Odds: Sosoli +120 / Rogerio De Lima -150
This fight should be an all-out brawl. In an all-out brawl, Rogerio De Lima gets the nod. He’s got a much better ground game, which means he could force Sosoli to the mat for a ground and pound, or use his wrestling skills. If the fight stays up, Marcos has a 2 ½ inch reach advantage and a 3-inch leg reach advantage. Rogerio De Lima wins.
UFC Fight Night Betting Pick: Marcos Rogerio De Lima
Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Yan Xiaonan
- UFC Fight Night Odds: Kowalkiewicz +195 / Xiaonan -250
Yan Xiaonan has a 10-1 record with 1 NC. She lands 6.85 strikes per minute. That’s better than Karolina’s strike-rate per minute. Xiaonan’s grappling skills also appear slightly better than what Kowalkiewicz possesses. The chalk should win this matchup.
UFC Fight Night Betting Pick: Yan Xiaonan
Jim Crute vs Michael Oleksiejczuk
- UFC Fight Night Odds: Crute +110 / Oleksiejczuk -140
Crute-Oleksiejczuk is a contender for Fight of the Night. Although most back Michael, Jim has a much better shot than the +110 odds. First, Crute is Australian. His countrymen will be behind him. Second, at 6’ 2”, Crute has a 2-inch height advantage over Oleksiejczuk. Also, Crute is undefeated at 10-0 and has a great all-around game. He’s worth backing at the odds.
UFC Fight Night Betting Pick: Jim Crute
Paul Felder vs Dan Hooker
- UFC Fight Night Odds: Felder +115 / Hooker -145
In the main event, 16-4 Paul Felder battles 19-8 Dan Hooker. Although Felder has a shot due to his strong standup, Hooker wins this. A New Zealander, Dan fights in his home country on Saturday. He’s got a 2-inch height advantage, a 5-inch reach advantage, and a 2 ½ inches leg rich advantage. Hooker can take the fight to the mat. Or, he could keep his distance and hit Felder every time Paul attempts to move into him. No matter how the fight plays out, Hooker has the upper hand.
UFC Fight Night Betting Pick: Dan Hooker
