UFC Fight Night heads to Buenos Aires, Argentina on Saturday night for big matchups between some of the most skilled at the promotion. Headlined by #8 Neil Magny versus #10 Santiago Ponzinibbio in the welterweight division, the Nov. 17 UFC Fight Main Card lacks no drama. Check out the latest UFC odds and analysis for the 6 main card fights.
Where: Arena Parque Roca, Villa Soldati Buenos Aires, Argentina
#8 Neil Magny +245 vs # 10 Santiago Ponzinibbio -305
As always, UFC tries to add home town fighters to the card. In the main event, the home town fighter is Santiago Ponzinibbio. Even though Magny’s got a 3” height advantage and a big 7” reach advantage, Ponzinibbio’s on fire having won 6 in a row.
Magny’s the dog for a reason in this battle. It’s hard to see Santiago Ponzinibbio not stepping it up in front of his countrymen.
UFC Fight Night Pick: Santiago Ponzinibbio
#12 Ricardo Llama -200 vs #13 Darren Elkins +170
Both Llamas and Elkins enter their match on Saturday night off a loss. Llamas is the chalk, but Elkins has a 2” inch height advantage. Based on stats, these two are relatively evenly matched with Elkins having the slightly better takedown defense, 60% to 47%, and taking down his opponents more successfully, 35% to 30%.
The dog’s worth a look in this matchup.
UFC Fight Night Pick: Darren Elkins
Khalil Rountree Jr. -210 vs Johnny Walker +175
UK fighter Johnny Walker has a significant reach advantage over Khalil Rountree, 82” to 76.5”. He should use that advantage against the shorter Rountree. Although Rountree has more UFC experience, Walker’s reach advantage, and the fact he’s 13-3 with 85% of his wins coming via KO, means the underdog again has a shot.
UFC Fight Night Pick: Johnny Walker
Cezar Ferreira +150 vs Tom Breese -180
Breese is taller but Ferreira has the reach advantage. Although Ferreira might try to use his advantage to keep Breese from getting to him, Breese should manage to either take this fight to the ground, or to duck under Ferreira’s longer arms. Breese also has a 1-inch leg reach advantage. The 11-1 Breese might be the favorite with the best shot at UFC glory on Saturday night.
UFC Fight Night Pick: Tom Breese
Guido Cannetti +255 vs Marlon Vera -315
Argentinian fighter Guido Cannetti battles Ecuadorian Marlon Vera in one of the more intriguing matches on the main card. Cannetti’s stepping up. So, the real question’s whether he can handle the more difficult competition he faces on Nov. 17.
Vera has the better ground game. Although it’s tough to go against a home nation underdog, Marlon Vera should win this match.
UFC Fight Night Pick: Marlon Vera
Poliana Botelho -145 vs Cynthia Calvillo +125
In a match between two 1-loss fighters, the taller Poliana Botelho gets the nod. Calvillo’s a tough brawler, but she yields 4-inches to Botelho without providing a real advantage in skills. Botelho should use her height to position Calvillo where she must for either an easy decision win. If Calvillo rushes in, Botelho could catch her with a knockout punch.
UFC Fight Night Pick: Poliana Botelho