UFC on Fox 28 Betting Preview and Prediction

Posted by Jordan Walters on Wednesday,February 21, 2018 9:11, EDT in

Solid UFC on Fox 28 card from the Amway Center in Orlando on Saturday, February 24th, headlined by a bout between ranked featherweights Jeremy Stephens and Josh Emmett. The four-fight main card will start at 8 p.m. ET on the Fox TV network. Here’s a look at those bouts and our UFC betting picks.

UFC on Fox 28 Betting Preview and Prediction

Josh Emmett (13-1) vs. Jeremy Stephens (27-14)

Stephens is a -165 favorite for this bout at Mybookie.ag with Emmett at +140 and the over/under at 3.5 rounds. He is coming off a huge upset knockout of Ricardo Lamas in December, a fight Emmett accepted on short notice after Lamas’ original opponent, Jose Aldo, was moved to another event. Emmett is 4-1 overall in the UFC and the victory over Lamas elevated him into title contention. Emmett is now ranked No. 4 in the division.

Emmett appeared the bigger man, though Lamas looked comfortable trading in the pocket. Lamas was relaxed on his feet, alternating angles with a variety of attacks, while Emmett answered with power in every shot. That paid off late in the round, when an Emmett counter left scored flush and left Lamas out cold with 27 seconds left in the first round.

“I knew what they were saying,” Emmett said of the Lamas win. “I was a big underdog, and I had no chance. Like you said, Lamas has beat everybody. The only people he lost to were close fights with the current and former champion and stuff like that. … That’s why I took it and I was the only one who took it. I shocked the world – well, the world except my coaches, teammates, friends and family,” Emmett said after the win.”

Stephens, ranked No. 7 in the division, is off an upset knockout of his own, against South Korean prospect Doo Ho Choi in St. Louis last month. Stephens finished Choi with a pair of monstrous right hands in the second round. The upset finish came at the 2:36 mark.

Stephens dropped Choi with an overhand right behind the ear and stood over his guard. As Choi tried to cover up, Stephens dropped down with another vicious right hand that ended the fight. It marked the 18th knockout victory of Stephens’ career. He has now won two in a row, including a decision over two-time UFC title challenger and Strikeforce champion Gilbert Melendez.

Jessica Andrade (17-6) vs. Tecia Torres (10-1)

Andrade, from Brazil, is a -300 favorite for this women’s strawweight bout with the American Torres at +240 and the over/under 2.5 rounds. Andrade, No. 2 in the division, previously was reportedly set to fight Karolina Kowalkiewicz at this event. The former 115-pound title challenger is coming off a unanimous decision win over Claudia Gadelha at UFC Fight Night 117 in September, helping her rebound from a title-fight loss to then-champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk at UFC 211 in May.

Torres, ranked No. 5, is riding a three-fight winning streak, which is among the longest in the weight class. She beat Bec Rawlings, Juliana Lima and most recently Michelle Waterson at UFC 218. Torres has bossed her way to nine unanimous decisions with one submission. The winner here is on course for a shot at the victor of the rematch between Rose Namajunas and Jędrzejczyk at UFC 223.

Which fighters are a safe bet for UFC on Fox 28?

Ovince Saint Preux (22-10), Ilir Latifi (14-5)

Saint Preux is a -120 favorite for this light heavyweight bout and Latifi at +100 with an over/under of 2.5 rounds. Saint Preux, a 34-year-old from Tennessee, is on a three-fight winning streak that includes two consecutive fight-night bonuses and is ranked No. 5 in the division. Most recently, he scored a head-kick knockout win over Corey Anderson at UFC 217. Latifi, a 34-year-old Swede ranked No. 8, picked up a unanimous-decision win over Tyson Pedro at UFC 215 to rebound from a knockout loss to Ryan Bader. He’s on a 4-1 run in his past five fights.

Saint Preux has a huge reach advantage, which is a threat as he has exceptional power at the end of his range and will be able to keep Latifi at a distance. That should force the Swede to call upon his strengths which is his explosiveness and grappling.

Max Griffin (13-4) vs. Mike Perry (11-2)

Perry is -345 for this welterweight bout and Griffin at +275 with an over/under of 1.5 rounds. Perry, who is from Orlando, comes off a unanimous decision loss to Santiago Ponzinibbio in December at UFC on Fox 26, which snapped a two-fight knockout streak for Perry. With the fight seemingly hanging in the balance in the third, both men came out swinging in the third. A Ponzinibbio takedown proved key, and Perry appeared a little tired as he settled for simply holding from the bottom rather than try and power his way back to the feet. Ponzinibbio walked away with a hard-fought decision win, 29-28 on all three cards.

Griffin also is off a UD loss, coming to Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. The fight nearly came to an end late in the opening round when dos Santos hurt Griffin with a thumping right hand to the side of the head, then followed up with an assault that had Griffin wobbling all over the cage. Griffin rebounded in the second round and even had dos Santos hurt at one point. Once the fight went to the judges, all three saw it for dos Santos, giving him the win with scores of 29-28, 29-27, and 29-28.

Expert UFC on Fox 28 Betting Predictions

Go Emmett with the minor upset in the headliner (under 3.5 rounds), Andrade, Saint Preux and Perry to also emerge victorious.