Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje run it back on Saturday night when the two popular UFC fighters throw down in the main event at UFC 291. In their first battle, Poirier got the win, beating Gaethje via knockout. The fight happened a while ago in 2018.
Will history repeat itself? Or will Gaethje exact his revenge?
Keep reading for UFC betting lines, analysis, and free picks for main card bouts at this Saturday’s UFC 291 224: Poirier vs. Gaethje in Utah.
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 Betting Analysis for the Main Card Bouts | MyBookie MMA Betting Preview
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
Saturday, July 29 at 7:00 pm ET
Delta Center, Salt Lake City, UT
PPV
UFC 291 Poirier vs. Gaethje – Main Card Preview
Michael Chiesa vs. Kevin Holland
UFC Odds: Michael Chiesa +125 vs. Kevin Holland -150
Welterweight Bout
Favorite Kevin Holland appears to have a massive advantage. Underdog Michael Chiesa hasn’t fought since 2021 and in Holland’s most recent match, he beat Santiago Ponzinibbio via third round knockout.
The victory came on the heels of a fight of the year candidate in 2022, a loss to Stephen Thompson. So Holland should be the favorite in this.
But although Chiesa hasn’t fought since 2021, the underdog’s ground game is superior to Holland’s. If Chiesa can get the fight to the mat, he will prevail.
UFC 291 Pick: Michael Chiesa | Bet Michael Chiesa vs. Kevin Holland Today
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Bout
Tony Ferguson vs. Bobby Green
UFC Odds: Tony Ferguson +310 vs. Bobby Green -400
Lightweight Bout
This could be Tony Ferguson’s swan song. The now 39-year-old has lost 5 straight. Ferguson has lost those 5 straight bouts in every way imaginable, via unanimous decision, via knockout, and via submission.
Bobby Green isn’t in great form, but he looked good versus Jared Gordon even though UFC declared it a no contest. Ferguson is going to struggle versus Green’s speed. The favorite scores the win.
UFC 291 Pick: Bobby Green | Bet Tony Ferguson vs. Bobby Green Today
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Bout
Stephen Thompson vs. Michel Pereira
UFC Odds: Stephen Thompson -150 vs. Michel Pereira +125
Welterweight Bout
On paper, the odds should be flipped. Pereira has won 5 straight. Not only has Pereira won 5 straight, but the victories came against decent opponents like Andre Fialho and Santiago Ponzinibbio.
The reason Michel is the dog in this could be because even though he’s won 5 in a row, 4 of the 5 wins came via decision. Versus Ponzinibbio in the last, Pereira barely took home the victory, winning via split decision.
Stephen Thompson bounced back from 2 straight losses with a hard fought win over Kevin Holland in his last. Thompson can use momentum from the win to propel him to victory in this.
UFC 291 Pick: Stephen Thompson | Bet Stephen Thompson vs. Michel Pereira Today
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Bout
Jan Blachowicz vs. Alex Pereira
UFC Odds: Jan Blachowicz -110 vs. Alex Pereira -110
Light Heavyweight Bout
Blachowicz versus Pereira should be one of UFC 291’s top bouts. We can make a case for either fighter to leave the Octagon with a victory.
Alex Pereira lost his last, but the defeat happened in a rematch versus Israel Adesanya. In the match before, Pereira upset Adesanya to win the title.
Blachowicz suffered a draw in his last. But the draw came against the great Magomed Ankalaev in a championship bout. Of the two participants in this, Jan is in slightly better form. Give Blachowicz the nod.
UFC 291 Pick: Jan Blachowicz | Bet Jan Blachowicz vs. Alex Pereira Today
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Bout
Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje
UFC Odds: Dustin Poirier -150 vs. Justin Gaethje +125
Lightweight Bout – Main Event
2018 was a while ago. So we can’t use the first bout between Poirier and Gaethje as the lone reason to decide to back either.
In recent fights, Poirier has fought the less talented or in form opponents. Beating Conor McGregor is meaningless nowadays. Charles Olievera beat Poirier in 2021.
Poirier did beat Michael Chandler in his last. But Gaethje got by Rafael Fiziev in May this year and has, overall, fought the better opponents. The dog bites.
UFC 291 Pick: Justin Gaethje | Bet Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje Today
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Bout
UFC 291 Fight Card | MMA
| Main Card (ESPN+) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Weight class | |||
| Lightweight | Dustin Poirier | vs. | Justin Gaethje |
| Light Heavyweight | Jan Błachowicz | vs. | Alex Pereira |
| Welterweight | Stephen Thompson | vs. | Michel Pereira |
| Lightweight | Tony Ferguson | vs. | Bobby Green |
| Welterweight | Michael Chiesa | vs. | Kevin Holland |
| Preliminary card (ABC / ESPN / ESPN+) | |||
| Welterweight | Gabriel Bonfim | vs. | Trevin Giles |
| Heavyweight | Derrick Lewis | vs. | Marcos Rogério de Lima |
| Middleweight | Roman Kopylov | vs. | Claudio Ribeiro |
| Welterweight | Jake Matthews | vs. | Darrius Flowers |
| Early preliminary card (ESPN+ / UFC Fight Pass) | |||
| Flyweight | C.J. Vergara | vs. | Vinicius Salvador |
| Welterweight | Matthew Semelsberger | vs. | Uroš Medić |
| Women’s Flyweight | Miranda Maverick | vs. | Priscila Cachoeira |
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