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No. 11 USC will play its first-ever Big Ten game on Saturday when it visits three-time defending league champion and No. 18 Michigan, which is a solid underdog on the college football odds for the second time already in 2024.

It will be the first time since 2021 that Michigan plays two regular-season games as a betting underdog.

Opening NCAAF Lines Subject to Change: USC -6.5 (total 47)
Expert Prediction in Week 4: USC 23, Michigan 20

USC Trojans -232

USC (2-0) has been off since trouncing Utah State 48-0 on Sept. 7. After USC held ranked LSU to 20 points in Las Vegas in the season opener, defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn’s group yielded just 190 yards to the Aggies, with 40 of those yards coming against the Trojans’ backups on a final drive that ended with a missed 52-yard field goal attempt with 1:08 to play.

It was the fewest total yards allowed in a game by USC since holding Oregon State to 181 total yards on Sept. 27, 2014. The 103 net yards passing by Utah State were the fewest surrendered in a game by the Trojans since holding California to 93 net passing yards on Nov. 10, 2018.

Lincoln Riley

“Really just a great team win. Very complementary football on all sides. Very proud of defense,” Coach said. “It’s very hard to shut people out in modern-day college football. I’m really proud of us maintaining our play defensively the entire night. The complementary ball was really good. The offense did a good job running the ball — that was a big emphasis point, so we’re proud of the way the guys responded and ran the ball.”

It was USC’s first shutout since defeating UCLA 50-0 on Nov. 26, 2011 at the Coliseum. USC has allowed 20 points total through its first two games, its lowest total through two games since surrendering 15 points in the first two games of the 2015 season (Sept. 5 – W, 55-6 vs. Arkansas State, Sept. 12 – W, 59-9 vs. Idaho).

Defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn’s unit has allowed just one rushing yard on third and fourth down this season, and it hasn’t allowed a first down on any third-and-7 or longer. USC gave up 71 plays of 20 or more yards last year, an average of 5.4 per game. Under Lynn, the Trojans have allowed just four plays of more than 20 yards in two games. Additionally, USC’s defense has only been penalized once through eight quarters of action.

Miller Moss

The QB, in his first career start at the Coliseum, went 21-for-30 for 229 yards and a TD. He completed 70 percent of his passes tonight, and has completed 69.7 percent or more of his passes in each of his first 3 career starts. For his career, Moss has completed 72.2 percent of his passes (114-for-158). The redshirt junior has been excellent through two games this season. Moss has completed 48 of 66 passes for 607 yards and two touchdowns. He boasts the eighth-highest odds to win the Heisman trophy at +1800.

Woody Marks

Marks rushed for 103 yards and a touchdown and also made three receptions in the Mississippi State transfer’s home debut for USC, catching a pass in his 47th consecutive game to extend the nation’s longest active streak.

👀✌️ — @JoquaviousMarks https://t.co/2tZkE5aPFG
— USC Football ✌️ (@uscfb) September 9, 2024

Riley noted that Michigan is “strong on the line of scrimmage” and playing them will be a “super challenge.”

“Yeah, I mean, they’re good,” he said. “Defending national champions, a lot of really good players on that roster, great home-field advantage. Texas game was, in my opinion watching it, quite a bit closer than maybe what the scoreboard indicated.”

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Michigan Wolverines +185

Michigan (2-1) bounced back from a lopsided loss to Texas in Week 2 with a 28-18 home win over Arkansas State on Saturday to conclude non-conference play. The Red Wolves rallied from a 28-3 deficit and scored twice in the final six minutes on touchdown passes by Timmy McClain to Reginald Harden Jr., outscoring the Wolverines 15-7 in the fourth. A-State forced Michigan into three interceptions thrown by UM quarterback Davis Warren – the most by an A-State team since 2017.

Rushing Yards

However, Michigan posted 301 rushing yards and allowed only 58. Leading the way in the U-M backfield were Kalel Mullings (15 rushes, 153 yards) and Donovan Edwards (17 rushes, 82 yards). Mullings became U-M’s first rusher over 150 yards since senior running back Edwards eclipsed that mark in consecutive weeks (at Ohio State, vs. Purdue) at the end of the 2022 season. Kalel broke off three runs of 30 yards or more and scored two touchdowns vs. ASU, while Edwards posted a rushing score of his own.

Total Yards

The Michigan offense combined for 435 total yards, were 9-of-12 on third-down opportunities, and averaged 6.8 yards per carry. Fredrick Moore, who set career highs of three catches and 38 receiving yards, proved important to the U-M offense, catching three first-down passes and two on third-down tries in the first half. Junior tight end Colston Loveland tied for the team lead in receptions (three), marking the third game of three in which Loveland has led or tied for the team lead in catches. His three catches today totaled 30 yards.

QB Davis Warren

But for the first time since Warren won the starting job ahead of the Wolverines’ season opener, Warren’s play prompted Michigan coach Sherrone Moore to make a change at quarterback, giving backup Alex Orji the final three drives of the game. All three of Warren’s turnovers came early in drives, twice giving Arkansas State short field position that created scoring opportunities. Davis Warren, who edged Orji for the starting job out of preseason camp, now has six interceptions in three games — eclipsing Michigan’s total for all of 2023 (five).

“Just can’t have ’em,” Moore said after the game of Davi’s three interceptions. “Put the ball in harm’s way too many times. So, made the change and we’ll continue practicing and go from there. Just not great stuff to put on film. Yeah, I was surprised. That’s football, though, so that stuff is going to happen and we had to make a change.”

It’s not clear as of this writing who starts Saturday but seems likely to be Orji. His 6-3, 235-pound frame would signify a shift in how Michigan operates moving forward, going from the traditional play-action passing game with Warren to a more ground-based option offense under Orji.

“He played well,” Moore said of Orji. “He had the overthrow but (we) wanted him to just let it rip and get some confidence and let it out there. He did a good job of just managing it and taking care of the football, which is the No. 1 thing we want our quarterback to do. We’ll see where we go from here.”

Deffense

Defensively, the Maize and Blue forced three-and-outs on four-of-11 Red Wolves drives and held them to conversions on 7-of-18 third downs. Highlighting were Ernest Hausmann (seven tackles, one sack, one tackle for loss) and Will Johnson (four tackles, one TFL, one pass breakup).

USC at Michigan NCAA Football Info

When: Saturday, 3:30 PM ET
Where: Michigan Stadium
TV: CBS
Stream: Paramount+
Radio: Tunein.com

USC vs Michigan Series History

USC leads 6-4 all-time. Michigan has just one win over the Trojans since 1958, a 22-14 victory in the 1989 Rose Bowl. Their most recent meeting was in the 2007 Rose Bowl, where USC won 32-18.

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