NFL Week 16 Odds: Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Betting Analysis

A couple of teams put their playoff hopes on the line this Monday night when the New Orleans Saints host the Miami Dolphins. The Saints take on the Fins a week after dominating the rival Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In their last, the Dolphins increased their winning streak to 6 games. Will Miami keep the streak going? Or will the short handed Saints get it done? See below for NFL odds, analysis, and a free pick for Miami at New Orleans.

NFL Betting Preview for Miami Dolphins vs New Orleans Saints

NFL Week 16 | Dolphins at New Orleans Game Betting Odds & Info

When: Monday, Dec. 27 at 8:15 pm ET
Where: Caesar’s Superdome, New Orleans, LA
TV / Streaming: ESPN / ESPN+
ATS Odds: Miami -2 ½
Over/Under Odds: 37 ½

Why bet on Miami versus New Orleans?

For more than a month, the Dolphins have played like one of the top teams in the NFL. Tua Tagovailoa has an excellent 7-to-3 touchdown to interception ratio in Miami’s last 5 games. During the streak, the Dolphins’ defense has flat out dominated. Unless New Orleans’ offense rediscovers its past glory, Miami should be in a good position to cover this spread.

Miami Dolphins Offensive Averages

Total Yards: 314.7

Passing Yards: 228.1

Rushing Yards: 86.6

Points Scored: 20.4

Turnovers: 23

Miami Dolphins Defensive Averages

Total Yards: 349.1

Passing Yards: 245.4

Rushing Yards: 103.7

Points Scored: 22.3

Takeaways: 22

Why bet on New Orleans versus Miami?

The Saints’ defense has become one of the best units in the league. Not only did New Orleans shut out the highest-scoring team in the NFL in the Saints’ 9-0 Week 15 victory over Tampa, but New Orleans also held the top passing offense in the league to 184 yards. Total yards allowed ended up at 302, well below the Bucs’ league-leading 402 per game average. If the Saints could dominate Brady and the Buccaneers, why couldn’t it dominate Tua and the Fins?

New Orleans Saints Offensive Averages

Total Yards: 311.7

Passing Yards: 194.6

Rushing Yards: 117.1

Points Scored: 22.4

Turnovers: 16

New Orleans Saints Defensive Averages

Total Yards: 336.9

Passing Yards: 240.2

Rushing Yards: 96.6

Points Scored: 20.4

Takeaways: 19

Dolphins vs Saints Relevant Trends

Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on field turf
Miami is 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss
Under is 4-1 in the Dolphins’ last 5 games as a favorite
Saints are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in December
New Orleans is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win
Under is 4-0 in the Saints last 4 games

Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints Final Betting Prediction

Miami sure looks like the winner. The Dolphins have been relatively unscathed from the Omicron breakout that’s inflicted plenty of teams. So far, Tua is a go for Monday night, which means the Fins will play their QB1.

Meanwhile, the Saints could be down to their QB4, Notre Dame rookie Ian Book. The good news for the Saints is that Book is the winningest signal-caller in Golden Domer history.

Not only that, but he made the team and before training camp started, more than a few NFL analysts believed Book might be searching for a job before the Saints began the season. By all accounts, Book is a very good passer who reads defenses like he’s been playing in the NFL for years.

Also, the Saints will have Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara to help Book on Monday night. In addition, New Orleans’ defense was on point against Tampa, and the Saints didn’t lose any key starters from the D to Omicron.

Finally, the Dolphins can’t run the ball, which means New Orleans’ defensive coordinator Dennis Allen will create a scheme that puts Tagovailoa into difficult situations.

On paper, the Dolphins win this. But at -2 ½ and in the Superdome, the Fins are an underlay. Saints moneyline is the play.

NFL Week 16 Pick: New Orleans Saints

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