If you’re either a college or pro football bettor that is looking for some expert betting tips that ‘go inside the money line’ then consider your ticket punched, even if it’s not for the latest Powerball haul that brought one lucky lady over $700 million just last week.
While a vast majority of NFL bettors like to make against-the-spread (ATS) or point spread wagers that feature a favorite giving up points and an underdog receiving the same amount of points, there’s definitely more than one way to cash in on online NFL betting – and one of the best – and easiest – ways to do that is by making moneyline wagers.
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What is Inside Money Line Betting?
A moneyline wager is a simple wager where you’re betting only on which team you like to win a specific matchup. Your wager is a winner as long as the team you picked to win does just that. A moneyline wager is not dependent upon a team winning by a certain amount of points, which is what an ATS wager is.
Moneyline betting is especially common in sports like baseball, where pricing revolves around straight winners rather than spreads — which is why MLB betting is one of the best environments to understand how moneyline odds behave over time.
If you’re new to how pricing works behind these numbers, this guide on why sportsbook odds matter explains how odds reflect probability and long-term value.
- Chicago Bears +160
- New Orleans Saints -210
Example
Let’s say Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints are hosting the Chicago Bears and you like for them to get the easy home win by putting a ton of points on the board. Well, as you can see, the Saints are a -210 moneyline pick, meaning, it’s going to cost you $210 to win $100. Conversely, if you like the Bears for the big upset, and they pull it off, then a $100 wager would net you a $160 return.
The big difference in Moneyline betting and spread betting is the difference in odds for the favorite and underdog. The only time you’ll see two moneyline figures that are in the same vicinity of one another is when two very evenly matched teams meet. Otherwise, you’ll notice a distinct disparity in the odds for the favorite and underdog, as is the case with the above odds.
Finding Underdogs Inside Money Line
The No. 1 thing you’d like to accomplish as a moneyline betting enthusiast is to find underdogs with ‘real bite.’ This concept also applies in global tournaments like World Cup betting, where underdogs often carry real value due to low-scoring matches and tighter margins.
This means that you need to look for underdogs that have legitimate chances of winning outright against their favored opponents.
- Chicago Bears +160
- New Orleans Saints -210
For example, let’s say you saw the same odds on Chicago and New Orleans as in the previous example, but you know that Drew Brees was banged around and suffered a sprained ankle in his previous start and will likely be closer to 90 percent than fully healthy.
Now, let’s say the Bears, simultaneously, put up a helluva’ fight before losing to Tampa Bay on a last-second field goal at home in their previous contest.
This might be a perfect time to back the Bears as an underdog moneyline pick. Chicago lost a heartbreaker the week before and will likely be extra-determined to make up for that defeat this week, while the New Orleans Saints enter this contest with Brees playing, but clearly less than 100 percent healthy. Personally, I’d say the bears look like a dog with bite. Look for underdogs that have legitimate value of winning outright.
Margin of Victory Stats
Now, let me get started by saying that one of the first things you need to know about, but little bettors do, is ‘Margin of Victory’ statistics. Knowing the percentages of how many games end in either, 3, 4 or 7-point finishes, either league-wide, or for a particular team, will undoubtedly help you master your moneyline wagering. The most common margins of victory are 3 points (15.67%), 7 points (9.67%), 10 points (6.03%), 6 points (5.55%) and 4 points (5.17%).
In 2016, the Patriots (12.3), Falcons (8.8) and Cowboys (6.6) all recorded average margins of victories of at least six points to finish, first, fourth and third in ATS victories last season.
Winner, Winner, Chicken Dinner!
Forget the point spread. Over a decade-long period from 2004-2014, the outright winner of every NFL game covered the spread 84.1 percent of the time! Oh, by the way, favorites went 1283-1210-67 ATS over the same span, which is an eerie 49.5%.Shop for Late Value
Often times, when NFL odds are first released, you may want to jump on a certain game or two right away. However, if you wait it out for just a bit, you can often find better value on the same matchup you intended to bet on in the first place. Now, knowing how long to wait can often be a conundrum because you don’t want to see a line or the odds go ‘the other way’ but being patient and line shopping is a literal must if you’re making Moneyline wagers.
Timing matters across all betting markets, including high-volume events like March Madness betting, where line movement is driven heavily by public action.
MyBookie: Bet On Anything. Anywhere. Anytime.
About the Author
D.S. Williamson
Since 2008, D.S. Williamson has written about sports and sports handicapping. His philosophy is value-based, meaning stats and other handicapping factors are only worth something in comparison to wagering odds. He believes money management and making value-based wagers is the single more important factor that distinguishes successful sports bettors from non-successful sports bettors.
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