MLB Betting Handicapping Pitchers After A No-Hitter

Posted by Joe Solari on September 23, 2016 in

Every pitcher dreams of a no-hitter performance at least once in their career. Very few, however, manage to accomplish it, no wonder the media and pretty much every baseball lover gets to make a big deal whenever a player is coming off a no-no. For most recreational bettors, a pitcher coming off a no-hitter is like a surefire sign to bank on the player in his next game for a win in the MLB lines. But looking at baseball history, good performances are not always guaranteed after no-hitters due to a number of reasons.

A Closer Look At The MLB Betting Handicapping Pitchers After A No-Hitter



For starters, the attention, interviews and hyped scrutiny that comes with throwing a no-hitter gem often puts a lot of pressure on pitchers in question, and as a result, performing to a high level in the next game becomes difficult. Moreover, there are those occasions where we have middling pitchers fluke out no-hitters. And as you’d expect, such middling pitchers often find it hard to replicate their gems or even remain efficient on the mound. A good example here is then-White Sox pitcher Mark Buehrle who threw a perfect game against Tampa Bay in 2009, only to follow it with nine consecutive games with no victory. Buehrle went 2-7 post his no-hitter after starting the season 11-3, showing just how bad things can go after posting a no-no.

It should, however, be noted that there are instances that certain pitchers go on to have solid or breakout performances after no-hitters. A good example here is then-Detroit hurler Justin Verlander, who impressively went 21-2 with a 2.18 ERA after his no-no decision in May 2011 en route to winning both the MVP and American League Cy Young awards.

So what then is the right way to handicap a pitcher after a no-hitter? Going by the diverse circumstances and variety of ways that no-hitters come in the major leagues, there is no direct answer we can give to that question. Nonetheless, you can use the following rules to guide your wagers when betting on such pitchers

  • If you have an ace pitcher coming off a no-hitter, chances are that they are likely to continue giving strong performances in their next games, as they rarely get affected by the fame and publicity that come with their gems. This is in contrast with the middling pitchers that are a high-risk, high-reward bunch that can boom or bust after their no-pitchers.
  • Keep away from a pitcher after a no-hitter if he’s going against an efficient offensive team or an ace on the opposing mound.
  • Pitchers that are supported by top offensive units and good bullpens tend to succeed more after a no-hitter, as they don’t have to shoulder the heavy responsibilities after their gems on their own.
  • No-hitter pitchers are often heavy MLB online betting favorites when they take to the hill in their next game, making their money line value quite low. If you are really convinced that these pitchers are due for big performances, don’t lay the heavy juice on them in the SU lines. Instead, go for the value on the MLB run lines which will most likely hold more value.

Obviously, no-hitters are rare in the majors and should be appreciated when handicapping pitchers, but don’t over-analyze or make too big a deal out of them. MLB handicapping can be done in several ways, with no-hitters being just one aspect of betting. To have an all-inclusive betting angle, be sure to consider all the necessary factors involved in a game rather than narrowing down your focus to the no-hitter performances only.