MLB Play-In Game Strategy Skip The Starter

With the MLB regular season coming to an end, we’ll soon be witnessing those one-game baseball matchups to determine the final qualifiers for the playoffs in the majors. MLB Play-In Game Strategy plays a crucial role here, as placing MLB bets on these winner-take-all showdowns is usually different from regular-season or postseason games, given their one-off nature and the heavy implications these matchups hold in regard to who makes the playoffs.

Below, we discuss the skip the starter MLB betting tactic and how it can be successfully used as a play-in game strategy.

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Table of Contents: MLB Play-In Game Strategy

MLB Play-In Games in the Season
Why Would a Team Choose to Skip a Starter in a Play-In Game?
The Role of Matchups
Impact on Bullpen Rest
How Does the Location of the Play-In Game (Home vs. Away) Impact This Strategy?
Pressure on the Road
How Does Skipping a Starter Impact the Over/Under for a Play-In Game?
How Does This Strategy Affect the Hitting Lineup
Late-Game Adjustments
Implementing Skip the Starter Strategy
MLB Play-In Conclusion

MLB Play-In Games in the Season

The play-in game is a one-game battle to secure a playoff spot.

Teams must make strategic choices to increase their chances of winning.

One surprising strategy is skipping the traditional starting pitcher.

Instead of relying on a starter, teams may use a bullpen-heavy approach.

This strategy takes advantage of relievers’ ability to throw hard for short stretches.

It also prevents the opposing team from adjusting their lineup to face a predictable pitcher.

Skipping the starter can change how a game is played.

It affects bullpen usage, hitting lineups, and even betting odds.

This guide explains why teams consider this approach and how it impacts the game.

Over the years, baseball managers have shifted their strategies in critical games.

The idea of "bullpenning" has gained traction as more teams analyze their pitching strengths.

This approach challenges traditional baseball wisdom, showing that a well-managed bullpen can be just as effective as a star starter.

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Why Would a Team Choose to Skip a Starter in a Play-In Game?

In a single-elimination game, every pitch matters.

A starter usually pitches several innings, giving the other team time to adjust.

Using multiple relievers instead can keep hitters off balance.

Relievers often throw harder than starters because they do not need to save energy.

This can lead to more strikeouts and fewer scoring opportunities.

Teams with strong bullpens can take control of the game early and prevent runs.

Another reason to skip a starter is to save them for the next round.

If a team wins, their best pitcher remains available for an important playoff game.

This can increase their chances of advancing further.

Understanding the Skip the Starter Strategy

As suggested by the name, the skip the starter strategy revolves around avoiding starting pitchers in these play-in encounters.

The idea behind this betting strategy is that relief pitchers tend to play better than starting pitchers in these types of games, considering their ability to increase the velocity of their pitches and lead to stronger performances by the relief players on the mound.

The fact that relievers often face more of same-handed hitters gives them a relative edge from platoon splits.

Essentially, this is the reason why having good relief pitchers is encouraged for these games, as they are able to sustain strong performances than their usual starting pitcher counterparts.

Usually, effective starting pitchers in a team are chosen out of the requisite to make quick turnarounds and string quality starts for the heavy regular-season calendars and the playoffs that need them to play twice or even thrice a week.

This, in fact, is the reason why you find that sometimes the best pitchers in a team—numbers-wise or otherwise—are people in the relief rather than in their starting rotation.

For the play-in games, the team doesn’t need a player to give several strong starts in many days, but rather give a gem that will limit opposing teams from scoring several runs; which falls squarely in the job description of good relief pitchers.

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The Role of Matchups

Skipping a starter allows teams to maximize matchups.

If a team starts with a left-handed reliever, they can force the opposing lineup to adjust early.

Once the opposing team brings in pinch hitters, the manager can counter with a different pitcher.

This strategy also limits how often hitters see the same pitcher.

Many batters improve as they see a pitcher multiple times.

By rotating relievers, a team can prevent hitters from getting comfortable at the plate.

Using this strategy requires depth in the bullpen.

If a team does not have reliable relievers, the plan can backfire.

Managers must carefully balance pitcher fatigue and effectiveness.

What Are the Potential Advantages and Disadvantages of This Strategy?

Advantages

One advantage is the element of surprise.

The opposing team prepares for a starting pitcher’s style.

When they face multiple relievers instead, their game plan may not work.

Another benefit is keeping the best pitchers in the game.

A starter may struggle early, putting the team in a bad position.

By using the bullpen from the start, a team can control matchups and limit scoring chances.

Finally, skipping a starter allows flexibility.

The manager can adjust based on the situation.

If a reliever struggles, another can take over without hesitation.

Disadvantages

The biggest risk is bullpen exhaustion.

Relievers are not used to throwing many innings.

If the game goes long, the team may run out of fresh arms.

Another problem is the lack of a safety net.

If a starter struggles, a team can pull them and use the bullpen.

But if relievers are used early, there may not be many options left later in the game.

Finally, this strategy requires a deep bullpen.

Teams without strong relievers may not benefit from this approach.

If the bullpen gives up runs early, there may be no way to recover.

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Impact on Bullpen Rest

One key concern with this strategy is how it affects bullpen availability for future games.

If a team advances, they may have overused their relievers in the play-in game.

This can put them at a disadvantage in the next round.

Teams must consider how many rest days they have before the next series.

If the next game is soon after the play-in game, bullpen fatigue can become a major issue.

Managers must plan ahead to balance their pitching staff.

Some teams structure their pitching around this strategy late in the regular season.

They may rest key relievers to ensure they are fresh for the play-in game.

This approach can make the difference in a must-win situation.

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How Does the Location of the Play-In Game (Home vs. Away) Impact This Strategy?

Home teams may have an advantage when skipping a starter.

They can set up their bullpen with familiar conditions.

A home crowd can also energize relievers, giving them confidence.

On the road, this strategy becomes riskier.

Bullpen pitchers may not perform as well in an unfamiliar setting.

If a team falls behind early, it may be harder to come back without a traditional starter to settle the game.

Home-field advantage also affects how managers make decisions.

A home team can be more aggressive, knowing they bat last.

An away team might be more cautious and rely on traditional pitching approaches.

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Pressure on the Road

Playing on the road adds pressure to the bullpen.

Relievers may struggle to stay composed in front of a hostile crowd.

A starter, used to pitching longer innings, may handle the situation better.

Additionally, visiting teams must manage travel and fatigue.

A bullpen-first approach requires precise timing and communication.

If the relievers are not fully prepared, mistakes can happen.

For bettors, location is an important factor.

A team that performs better at home may have an edge if they implement this strategy there.

Road teams using this approach face more uncertainty.

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How Does Skipping a Starter Impact the Over/Under for a Play-In Game?

Betting lines change when teams skip a starter.

Oddsmakers set over/under totals based on expected pitching matchups.

When a team uses relievers instead, the game’s scoring can become unpredictable.

One possible outcome is a lower-scoring game.

If a team uses elite bullpen arms, runs may be harder to come by.

This can push bettors toward the under.

However, this approach can also lead to high-scoring games.

If relievers struggle or get overused, opposing teams may score more runs.

Bettors should consider bullpen depth and past performance before making a wager.

In-Game Betting Considerations

Live betting markets can shift rapidly when a team skips a starter.

If a reliever gets into trouble early, the odds may change dramatically.

Bettors who react quickly can find value in shifting lines.

Another factor is how the manager handles pitching changes.

Some managers prefer quick hooks, pulling relievers at the first sign of trouble.

Others give their bullpen more room to work.

These decisions impact how the game unfolds.

For those betting on the over/under, tracking bullpen usage throughout the season is key.

A team that struggles in late innings may see the total climb, making the over a better bet.

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How Does This Strategy Affect the Hitting Lineup?

Hitting strategy changes when a team skips a starter.

Batters expect to face the same pitcher multiple times.

With a bullpen-heavy approach, they may see different pitchers every at-bat.

This makes it harder for hitters to adjust.

Relievers throw different pitches and arm angles, making each plate appearance unique.

Hitters may struggle to find a rhythm against constantly changing pitchers.

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Late-Game Adjustments

If a team uses all its best relievers early, the hitters may get better chances later in the game.

Weaker bullpen arms may not hold a lead, giving the opposing lineup an opening.

Managers must balance the desire to prevent early runs with the need to have pitching available late.

A deep bench of pinch hitters can also play a role in countering this approach.

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Implementing Skip the Starter Strategy

If you want to use this strategy, it is advisable to give your good relief pitchers the last days of the regular season off in order to ensure they are up-to-task for the play-in game.

Based on team splits and regular season performances, you can easily know the teams that are likely to feature in these play-in games, basing your analysis on playoff standings.

Having a good relief pitcher participate in the early rounds is a good way to get things started.

Then, as the game progresses, you can mix a couple of lefties and righties to balance this on the field, allowing you to take advantage of the platoon matchups.

By around the sixth or seventh inning, you can then go with one of your best starters from the regular season to close out things in the last few innings.

The biggest advantage of these switch-ups and flipped roles for starters and relievers often works to great success, as it unsettles your opposition in terms of planning their lineups, especially in regard to maximizing platoon differentials.

Starting with the relievers is also crucial in terms of keeping the starters healthy if-and-when you make it to later playoff rounds.

In theory, the skip the starter strategy for play-in games covers all the important bases of online betting and encourages success.

Very few managers, however, are bold enough to put it into good action.

But in the instance that you see it adopted in play-in games, then be rest assured that the team in question will most likely have the upper hand in that contest.

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MLB Play-In Conclusion

Skipping the starter in a play-in game is a bold move.

It can keep hitters off balance and use the best bullpen arms.

It also preserves a top starter for the next round if the team advances.

Bettors and analysts must weigh the risks and rewards of this approach.

Factors like bullpen depth, home-field advantage, and betting lines all come into play.

Teams willing to adapt may find an edge in this must-win scenario.

Need to hold the lead? Need a big strikeout? Need to close out the game? You call up the bullpen for these guys 🫡@MLBNetwork’s #Top10RightNow continues with the top relief pitchers! pic.twitter.com/F6eGmm8kaA
— MLB (@MLB) January 9, 2025

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