Whether you’re a casual NFL fan or an avid follower and betting enthusiast…if there’s one thing you need to know all about when it comes to betting on NFL football, it’s how home field advantage affects oddsmakers’ decision-making and more importantly, what it means for pro football betting buffs everywhere.
Thanks to this expert betting breakdown, you’re going to find out now.
How Home Field Advantage Affects the NFL Handicapping
The first thing you need t know is that, in order to calculate home field advantage for ay tea, you should subtract the total points scored by visiting teams from the home teams, and divide by the total number of games played. However, on average…over the past two decades, you’ll find that the figure is approximately 2.7 points for every NFL franchise, hence the fact that playing a home is generally worth three points to oddsmakers.
Home teams receive fewer penalties per game than away teams and get more ‘valuable’ calls like that result in first downs more often at home than on the road. Before instant replay came along, home teams also enjoyed a whopping eight percent edge in turnovers, losing the ball far less often than road teams. When instant replay came along to challenge wrong calls, the turnover advantage was cut in half.
Last season, Carolina was the only team in the league to go undefeated against the spread (ATS) home (10-0). 15 teams managed to record winning ATS records at home while five other teams all recorded .500 ATS marks at home. Also, each of the dozen teams that did not record winning ATS records at home, none reached the postseason.
17 teams recorded at winning ATS record as a home favorite while six others went .500 as a home fave. Of the nine teams that compiled losing ATS records despite being favored at home, none reached the playoffs.
Last but not least, just seven teams (Atlanta, Denver, NY Jets, Carolina, Washington, Buffalo and St. Louis) recorded winning ATS records as a home underdog last season while five other teams all went.500 as a home dog.
