It is no secret that sports gamblers love to plunk down their money on favorites. This is a natural betting tendency that is evidenced in seasoned and rookie baseball bettors alike. If you are new to baseball wagering, it is worth reviewing the fundamentals in our Beginner Guide to MLB Betting. For a broader overview of how baseball betting markets work, our baseball betting strategy guide explains the key betting structures and strategic approaches used by experienced bettors.
In their defense, these gamblers can be forgiven for trusting too much on the favorites, considering the majority of the media and online sports betting pundits spend nearly every damn day of their professional lives hyping up the favored teams. And given that baseball is a moneyline sport, most bettors often find themselves backing favorites rather than underdogs.
How Betting Favorites in MLB Works
Betting favorites in MLB means backing the team expected to win according to sportsbook odds. Favorites are priced with negative American odds (for example -120 or -150), meaning bettors must risk more money to win a smaller return. Because Major League Baseball teams play 162 games, sportsbooks price favorites daily based on starting pitchers, bullpen strength, travel schedules, and public betting action.
Understanding when favorites are overpriced and when they offer value is a core concept discussed in many MLB betting strategy guides. Successful bettors evaluate pitching matchups, recent team performance, and situational angles before deciding whether a favorite is worth backing.
Profitable Pro Baseball Betting System for Favorites
Now, don’t get this wrong; betting on favorites in baseball can be profitable, but you will not always pick winners by jumping on favored teams.
To ensure sustainable profitability in baseball lines, you must know when to back favorites and when to go for underdogs. Many bettors also isolate the starting pitching matchup by wagering on the MLB First 5 Innings betting markets, which remove bullpen volatility from the equation.
In this article, we will highlight ways in which you can increase your chances of profitability when betting favorites in MLB markets, a strategy often discussed in comprehensive MLB betting guides.
Research on Your Favorites
The 2,430-game MLB regular season is an undeniably long and drawn out duration to back favorites.
If you are all about favorites, and you bet on one of every two games, it means you have to back 1,215 favorites the entire season, which is highly likely to lead to more losses than favorites.
To become a sharp bettor, you need to know about teams, the strengths, weaknesses, the best players, home/away splits and depth of the squads, among other factors.
Once you have such details at your fingertips, you are highly likely to make good and well-informed betting decisions, hence encouraging profitability.
Keep Away from Heavy Favorites
When backing favorites of -150 or higher, you risk too much for a less payout, which can turn out to be costly for you if such favorites don’t get to win games.
The unwritten rule about smart betting on favorites is that you should go for favorites of -120 or a cheaper price, allowing you to minimize your risks in case things don’t go your way.
Betting on Home and Road Favorites
Backing road favorites can be great for business in baseball betting, given that the road favorites often come with a better value than they’d have otherwise had as favorites at home.
The challenge, though, is that home underdogs tend to fight strongly, often leading to more wins for home underdogs than victories for the road favs.
You can, however, beat this trend by going for road favorites who are coming off a loss in their previous game.
Baseball betting history indicates that most road favorites (large or small) perform quite well when coming off a loss, supposedly due to the motivation of wanting to bounce back to the winning column.
Data from Sports Insights supports this viewpoint, reporting that away favorites of -200 or more coming off a loss have gone 95-33 for a profit of $2,500 and a return of 9% on every dollar risked.
As for home favorites, success is largely dependent on how the favored team approaches the game.
For some, complacency tends to creep in, hence leading to upsets and disappointing performances. For others, being favored at home is a shot in the arm, often motivating the players to do well for in front of their home fans.
Your baseball capping for home favorites should thus take into account records of how the home teams have performed in the past as favorites.
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About the Author
Henry Watkins
Henry Watkins is a Sports Writer at MyBookie. Originally from Scotland and currently residing in Metro Atlanta with his wife Penny, Henry covers a range of topics, including competitive and professional sports as well as sports business. In addition to his sports writing, he is also an author of horror fiction, with works such as Karaoke Night, Crueller, and Off The Grid.
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